Feb 24th threat part deux

[ORH_wxman]

Jack Straw from Witchita...

ORH at 0.5" or in the 0.75")

 

 

We are between the two....this will be a very slow burn event...hopefully we can pick up decent totals...we may mix with pellets or even rain when its light later tonight. Models have showed warming here for a time when there is a lack of lift.

[dendrite]

wow

 

i take it that is the inv trough signal showing up

Yeah...they all have it. Ec/GFS just aren't as potent. I think many up here pull a 4-7" and then some lucky location pulls in a 10".

[HoarfrostHubb]

We are between the two....this will be a very slow burn event...hopefully we can pick up decent totals...we may mix with pellets or even rain when its light later tonight. Models have showed warming here for a time when there is a lack of lift.

Yeah... really strung out/hard to accumulate. Without lift this will be a nailbiter to get much above 3-4"

[ineedsnow]

Just drove past okemo snowing hard here

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah... really strung out/hard to accumulate. Without lift this will be a nailbiter to get much above 3-4"

 

 

BL wont be a big problem in the elevations around here and esp by you...so if you happen to crawl your way to to over a half inch of qpf, you'll get 6"...but it might not make that total as models can be over zealous sometimes....of course you might get into a band and get more than that. I'd feel better if oyur hills were shifts NE by 20 miles, but oh well, not the case. I still remember that late Feb 2010 event where you got into a band and had like 9-10" of snow in 6 hours while I had 2-3" of slop.....that was my version Kevin's MLK 2010.

[moneypitmike]

Based on the definitions made earlier re: EC qpf, I figure I'm in line for 2-3"?  Bleh.  Congrats easterners and northerners.

 

Temp up to 30.2/29.  Snizzle continues with a few occasional bonafie flakes mixed in.  Driveway's slick.  (How crappy an observation that is to make!)

[free_man]

0.3" so far and coming down at a nice steady 0.5sm-1.0sm vis type clip.

nice,  perfect day to be skiing.

 

Yeah...it's currently 39F here.  

ouch

[HoarfrostHubb]

BL wont be a big problem in the elevations around here and esp by you...so if you happen to crawl your way to to over a half inch of qpf, you'll get 6"...but it might not make that total as models can be over zealous sometimes....of course you might get into a band and get more than that. I'd feel better if oyur hills were shifts NE by 20 miles, but oh well, not the case. I still remember that late Feb 2010 event where you got into a band and had like 9-10" of snow in 6 hours while I had 2-3" of slop.....that was my version Kevin's MLK 2010.

Yes, very localized. A friend's house about a mile and a half away had 12" (I measured ) and I got 10" (Feb 27)

 

On radar mosaic this looks really SE of where I would like...

[moneypitmike]

BL wont be a big problem in the elevations around here and esp by you...so if you happen to crawl your way to to over a half inch of qpf, you'll get 6"...but it might not make that total as models can be over zealous sometimes....of course you might get into a band and get more than that. I'd feel better if oyur hills were shifts NE by 20 miles, but oh well, not the case. I still remember that late Feb 2010 event where you got into a band and had like 9-10" of snow in 6 hours while I had 2-3" of slop.....that was my version Kevin's MLK 2010.

 

Won't the long duration lower accumulation impact of qpf?  I imagine there could be enough settling/compaction taking place over the duration to keep amounts a bit lower than qpf might suggest.

[weathafella]

PVD also .5???

Probably 0.75. Sorry..RI is so small I forget it exists...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Won't the long duration lower accumulation impact of qpf?  I imagine there could be enough settling/compaction taking place over the duration to keep amounts a bit lower than qpf might suggest.

 

 

It will affect snow depth but not really accumulations when you wipe the snowboard clean every 6 hours. Could be the type of thing where the snow measurement is 5" but the depth is never much higher then 3-3.5"...esp if the snow is wet for a time.

[N. OF PIKE]

will when do you see NE mass having best chance for any accums.......seems bl issues will be a concern thru out?

[weathafella]

will when do you see NE mass having best chance for any accums...

I'm not bullish for anywhere inside 495. Hopefully we can get into a renegade band that busts all the forecasts.

[ORH_wxman]

will when do you see NE mass having best chance for any accums...

 

 

Sunday morning looks like the best time.

 

 

There also might be another burst as the inverted trough rotates southward late Sunday night.

[weathafella]

Sunday morning looks like the best time.

 

 

There also might be another burst as the inverted trough rotates southward late Sunday night.

What's your take for BOS Will?

[weatherMA]

Light snow at the top of Cannon.

[wxsniss]

4km WRF BTV output 12z 2/23 fwiw

much of northeast MA / southeast NH / southeast ME comes Sunday morning-afternoon:

(EDIT: also went through temp profile, BL looks crappy in eastern MA)

[ORH_wxman]

What's your take for BOS Will?

 

 

Prob 1-3" later Sunday...if they can rip tomorrow morning though it could be more...they need to precipitate heavily tomorrow morning though otherwise its just snow that doesn't stick well. BOS is a hard forecast in this...because while their BL will stink for a lot of it, they are close enough to the heavy precip later to perhaps overcome it.

[educate]

GGEM was juicy for S NH/ME and NE MA.

I guess! shows 1.25 in roughly the 495 belt and 1.5+ inside of 128. whew!

[weathafella]

Prob 1-3" later Sunday...if they can rip tomorrow morning though it could be more...they need to precipitate heavily tomorrow morning though otherwise its just snow that doesn't stick well. BOS is a hard forecast in this...because while their BL will stink for a lot of it, they are close enough to the heavy precip later to perhaps overcome it.

Thanks Will. I was just in the woods with the dog for 2 hours from 10:15-12:15 and a refresher to the pack would be welcomed.

[eduggs]

So euro is .75 and colder east of 495? Have to bump up the totals for bos and ema from 2-4 to 6-8? Or are rates still crappy for accumulation?

To me it looks like mostly light snows/snow showers on Sun with marginal temps after a burst of rain/snow this afternoon.  I would stay low.  The elevated interior could do ok.

[N. OF PIKE]

4km WRF BTV output 12z 2/23 fwiw

much of northeast MA / southeast NH / southeast ME comes Sunday morning-afternoon:

(EDIT: also went through temp profile, BL looks crappy in eastern MA)

WRF_BTV_4km_12z_02_23_2013.png

the 12km 12z model just roll'd in and basically shows something similiar with the exception of much heavier swath across ext se ct, 2/3 ri, and se mass tan/ewb /pym corridor

 

with also the second max shifted a bit more sw over east central and ne mass over se nh and extreme sw maine 1.25+ for  BVY, just east of KASH to just sw of PWM.

 

verbatim it would be a moderate to heavy snow for N ORH hills over to BIRIVNG w/ basically an inch  to 1.15 qpf

[weathafella]

I find those 4km products to have been relatively useless this winter...all the HRR stuff has seemed pretty bad.

[wxsniss]

maybe this was posted earlier...

NWS still relatively bullish for eastern MA imo... I guess putting weight on CCB overcoming BL Sunday night. I don't see how crappy precip rates will overcome mild BL, I would have gone 1-3" in Boston with room to tick up if confidence grows later tonight on Sunday PM stuff.

 

[N. OF PIKE]

I find those 4km products to have been relatively useless this winter...all the HRR stuff has seemed pretty bad.

i would mostly agree, i have seen them shift around a ton this winter, i guess you gotta know when to use them

 

this would probably be a time, but they also can go poof with a norlun, like they did earlier this year when it was basically OTS about 24 hrs from event.

 

if the 0z 4km btv shows a similiar qpf map, i'd be more confident. i think this is a time when those meso's may  be useful. esp since the globals back them on the inv trough and qpf areas.

 

now we can always watch for it to shift NE and in reality sometimes it is a more narrow area getting hvy snows than forecast

[Tolland Death Band]

A few weenie flakes here. 34f

[CoastalWx]

It's do or die for BOS. They could be 1" or 6"...it's all dependent on getting heavier precip in here and when you need to depend on that....well good luck. Unless tonight somehow rips at 33F..hoping later tomorrow can come through..but we may be too far southwest. It's too bad the airmass is so mild because this could have been an easy 6-12 with persistent NE flow.

[weathafella]

maybe this was posted earlier...

NWS still relatively bullish for eastern MA imo... I guess putting weight on CCB overcoming BL Sunday night. I don't see how crappy precip rates will overcome mild BL, I would have gone 1-3" in Boston with room to tick up if confidence grows later tonight on Sunday PM stuff.

 

NWS_StormTotalSnowFcst_02_23_2013_am.png

I'd be thrilled. I'm thinking they presume bl isn't as bad as modeled by some tomorrow.

[wxsniss]

I find those 4km products to have been relatively useless this winter...all the HRR stuff has seemed pretty bad.

 

Very context-dependent I'd say.

The HRRR-dev nailed an event earlier this year, I think it was the 1/18/13 storm that clipped southeast MA

 

I'd guess these hi-res models might have better handle on an inverted trough event, at least inside 24 hours.

 

That said, I'm not totally certain what we're dealing with from the guidance, and all 3 mechanisms have been tossed around loosely:

   inverted trough?

       and/or

   ULL enhancement?

       and/or

   CCB as vorticity reaches our shortwave?

[N. OF PIKE]

It's do or die for BOS. They could be 1" or 6"...it's all dependent on getting heavier precip in here and when you need to depend on that....well good luck. Unless tonight somehow rips at 33F..hoping later tomorrow can come through..but we may be too far southwest. It's too bad the airmass is so mild because this could have been an easy 6-12 with persistent NE flow.

perhaps 200' tonite will make a difference  around the weenie hills in E ma. 

 

MQE .....there is nice little weenie area around 325 in parts of woburn just sw of route 3.....and by a pond in tewksbury near 400 feet.....a few weenie hills in the fells of stoneham,medford around 300....framingham has one with a few hours around 575 (brimstone lane)