ROOSTA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah some bit way too early. Would be awesome if now they have to ramp up tomorrow. A Winter version of Summer convergence when an 1" is modeled and an area gets 5" in an hour. I think it's one of these situations, just wait and watch. I think everyone knows inverted troughs can be feast of famine and rarely pinpointed accurately over time. As the models evolved the set-up screamed "stretched out". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 RGEM would be decent up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The first push is junk. Unfortunately. The whole storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The whole storm is. pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The whole storm is. True. I'm done tilting windmills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 True. I'm done tilting windmills. Watch me eat my words and we get 6+ lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Congrats in that run nh and me. I'm reducing my amounts to c-2. Favoring the lower. Working towards epic fail at this point. Will be ironic if the mid week system produces more than this one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 i gotta say, i love 36+ hour winter events; they happen so rarely. and when they include el bombo possibilities, really sweet. The whole storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 SREF Plumes for CON and LCI both are actually in really good agreement clustered around 8". I'm sure I'll get screwed with 3.5" and Dendrite will pull off 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Watch me eat my words and we get 6+ lol. Almost pointless to worry at this stage unless you're in the unfortunate position of having to forecast this mess. Most of these tricky storms prove close to impossible to forecast until game time. I've heard a million times that these troughs end up further south than modeled, so we'll see. Debating on a ride to ski country again tonight, doesn't seem like travel will be as bad as earlier thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Almost pointless to worry at this stage unless you're in the unfortunate position of having to forecast this mess. Most of these tricky storms prove close to impossible to forecast until game time. I've heard a million times that these troughs end up further south than modeled, so we'll see. Debating on a ride to ski country again tonight, doesn't seem like travel will be as bad as earlier thought. I think you meant northeast. Pack up and go..they'll get snow tonight into tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 SREF Plumes for CON and LCI both are actually in really good agreement clustered around 8". I'm sure I'll get screwed with 3.5" and Dendrite will pull off 10". That would be awesome. It's odd, I think NWS says up to one inch precipitation, at least last I checked. But I guess it will be spread out over 12 to 18 hours, and will be light up here. Only saying 1 - 3 inches now. I'll be at my father's at 2000 feet on a ridge up by the mountain (Snow), so maybe they will get more. BTW, from lurking for long (again, just busy with other board-riding related forums), I know where Dendrite is. Must be a sharp cutoff if here in the SE corner of VT, we will only get a few inches. I guess I'll have to go to Waterville Valley. _ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 SREF Plumes for CON and LCI both are actually in really good agreement clustered around 8". I'm sure I'll get screwed with 3.5" and Dendrite will pull off 10". The mean is 9.66" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like Jeff can take his mouth off the exhaust pipe of his snow mobile on the GFS. Dim sun snow showers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 the spfd republican had an article in the paper this morning about four to eight inches hitting the lower and mid valley and we have known for two days down here that there is a snowball's chance in heck of that happening thank god for this forum as there is just so much BAD information out there that is sold to the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I think you meant northeast. Pack up and go..they'll get snow tonight into tomorrow night. Yeah actually meant east....ie we think they're coming and they miss. Kind of like stalled systems for that matter, they usually seem to end up a bit ENE. Still though....I don't trust any model at this point. They were ALL horrible with this system to date. We were already up in NH, like everyone else up there we bailed because we didn't want to have to travel home in a big snowstorm. Whoops. Made for a good day of skiing Friday, trails were fairly empty as people were leaving early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like Jeff can take his mouth off the exhaust pipe of his snow mobile on the GFS. Dim sun snow showers here. Yeah, may actually get to ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I may not even get measurable snow lol. I think 1-3 in the hills is a fair forecast here with 1 or less valley and coast. Some icing this evening in the hills too if we wind up too warm aloft for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 The NAM is an awful model. Not if you know how and when to use it! - nice sniper post ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like Jeff can take his mouth off the exhaust pipe of his snow mobile on the GFS. Dim sun snow showers here. GFS pretty much in line with the 00z Euro op/ens now. Will probably be low end warning criteria for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS pretty much in line with the 00z Euro op/ens now. Will probably be low end warning criteria for most. Long duration though so advisories are fine despite 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS pretty much in line with the 00z Euro op/ens now. Will probably be low end warning criteria for most. What was qpf on the euro ensambles? .5-.7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I may not even get measurable snow lol. I think 1-3 in the hills is a fair forecast here with 1 or less valley and coast. Some icing this evening in the hills too if we wind up too warm aloft for snow. That follows closely with what my NWS forecast is calling for,which is 1-3" tonight and 1" on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS pretty much in line with the 00z Euro op/ens now. Will probably be low end warning criteria for most. Someone will get dumped on I think in a typical inv trough fashion. I bet someone pulls 10-12" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Meh, Just enjoy your possible dusting 4" sloppy seconds, and consider the blizzard the last warning of the season for you and me. Revised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Once the disappointment of the big storm that was forecast wears off... this still does have serious potential as Scott mentioned. I'd just think it's a horror show to figure out where right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 thinking this might be good for Will on up, enjoy fellows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 thinking this might be good for Will on up, enjoy fellows That is an impressive chart.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol, You can still see the s/w over the UP of michigan, This was not modeled at all that i can see nice catch! i wonder if the tug north that we see now with the trough and additional qpf is being caused by that s/w modeled in the UP. it is progged to weaken and we may see a bit of a colder solution in the afternoon /evening models as they realize the true contribution it will have in the overall solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS pretty much in line with the 00z Euro op/ens now. Will probably be low end warning criteria for most. Hopefully the models have settled in now. Little worried about surface temperatures being a couple of degrees above freezing tomorrow outside of any decent banding but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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