Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah, the models have all been terrible for this event... some worse than others though lol. It won't be the NAM if it missed, because it's the "missiest" of the all the runs right now. You guys are going to have to get your heads around that and realize you're being bullies to the NAM. But ... I think there may still be a middling impact by this, which will make this 00z NAM's run epic in wrongness, sure. But this was never the sort of system that's in the NAM's wheelhouse of storm types - so far. That's the point. If folks know limitations, none of the pages of bashing would have transpired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Blizzard was never on the table. Heavy snow, sure. ... but a blizzard requires wind that wasn't really ever in the cards. Naw I know just making a joke, reference to a whiff of a storm we got earlier in the season and Tim Kelley tweeted "blizzard option still on the table" even though things had clearly trended to a very run of the mill event. The modeling with this has been all over the place. At this point I'm not really going to be shocked if I get some pastey snow or if I end up with flurries or just plain rain. Not boring is the best way to put it I suppose lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro is still pretty ugly. It dives the laks ULL a little further south which might be interesting later Sunday, but otherwise this is a pretty mundane system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 no surprise 11th hour guidance blizzard further southeast thru 24h best part of this euro run... hour 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I think I'd just broad brush 3-6'' everywhere NW of 495/ mass pike at this point and move on to the next storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro is still pretty ugly. It dives the laks ULL a little further south which might be interesting later Sunday, but otherwise this is a pretty mundane system. Yup... maybe a couple slushy inches here if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Cool - so far, the NAM has led the way. It bailed, people bashed, now the so called king model also shows less, so it chases the NAM's shorter lead-time flavor. So the Euro is worse than the NAM. Yup, for this system. I guess it will all come down to what actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro is still pretty ugly. It dives the laks ULL a little further south which might be interesting later Sunday, but otherwise this is a pretty mundane system.this shouldn't turn out worse than my 2/23/10 birthday "storm". At least there's that going for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Cool - so far, the NAM has led the way. It bailed, people bashed, now the so called king model also shows less, so it chases the NAM's shorter lead-time flavor. So the Euro is worse than the NAM. Yup, for this system. I guess it will all come down to what actually verifies. The NAM is an awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 this shouldn't turn out worse than my 2/23/10 birthday "storm". At least there's that going for me. Slush balls on diamond hill, lol. I had 11" from that event...total paste job. Unfortunately it rained about 3" after that from the retro-job afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Slush balls on diamond hill, lol. I had 11" from that event...total paste job. Unfortunately it rained about 3" after that from the retro-job afterward.60dbz overhead and all I could manage was white rain in Attlehole. Disgusting. 15 min drive nw and it was a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Matt Noyes: "Storm center south of New England fizzles...game changer in all aspects" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Cool - so far, the NAM has led the way. It bailed, people bashed, now the so called king model also shows less, so it chases the NAM's shorter lead-time flavor. So the Euro is worse than the NAM. Yup, for this system. I guess it will all come down to what actually verifies. What are you talking about dude? I'm starting to think you're secretly hitting the sack with the NAM, and as you're friend, I gotta tell you, she got fugly this winter. See my post earlier tnite with NAM 6z-12z 2/22 and 0z-6z 2/23... 12z 2/22 was putting out 20+ snow in parts of MA 6z 2/23 (that's earlier today) was putting out a double digit snowstorm for most of MA That's not just due to excessive qpf... it was synoptically totally wrong in it's handling of the southern vorticity Euro has led the way for the last 48 hours. GFS caved first Thursday night, then NAM on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This storm is the biggest train wreck of the winter I think 8-14 inches is a good place to start. We can always increase amounts if we have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 My condolences to any who stayed up for the EC. I'd like to tackle an outdoor yard activity in protest. of the horrific modeling. A good burn would be nice on a cool day. That won't work since all my combustibles are under the 6-10" pack. Same deal with wood that needs to be cut and split. Oh, well. Nordic skiing is always an option. I wonder if the way this unfolded will have any impact on the push on the part of the media to get amounts out there. Probably not if it drives ratings. I'll hold out hope for the high end of the 2-4/3-6 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I just went to the forum thread listing for the first time since Thursday morning and discovered what happend to the storm.......who the hell pinned the damn thread???? Kiss of death!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well, at least it won't be a complete whiff cirrus show. I imagine the model performance for this disaster will make people a little more hesitant to jump onto the end of week storm bandwagon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well, at least it won't be a complete whiff cirrus show. I imagine the model performance for this disaster will make people a little more hesitant to jump onto the end of week storm bandwagon... lol...no football spiking in the end zone about back-to-back historic snowstorms with all models showing 1-2" QPF at 4-5 day lead time. Just shows how quickly these can fall apart and how venerable our current weather models are, even at 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well, at least it won't be a complete whiff cirrus show. I imagine the model performance for this disaster will make people a little more hesitant to jump onto the end of week storm bandwagon... Still out there in time so no reason to get to invested in it for a few more days, We have to get thru the weds one 1st up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I wonder if the later runs are even worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Dang...all if the local stores are out of Sarah McLaughlin CDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Dang...all if the local stores are out of Sarah McLaughlin CDs LOL. I'm sure you'll come up with some other riveting things to make up the lost opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Some weenie flakes flying out here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Some weenie flakes flying out here now Yeah I've seen a few flurries from time to time this morning as well. Seems well earlier than I was expecting anything at all... even if it is only a few stray flakes from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah I've seen a few flurries from time to time this morning as well. Seems well earlier than I was expecting anything at all... even if it is only a few stray flakes from time to time. Same here, Was not expecting much of anything until late afternoon, Will take it, Looks like 4-6" up here by sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Same here, Was not expecting much of anything until late afternoon, Will take it, Looks like 4-6" up here by sunday night I think that is the potent northern energy that was suppoed to phase...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Some weenie flakes flying out here now wow--jackpot for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I think that is the potent northern energy that was suppoed to phase...lol lol, You can still see the s/w over the UP of michigan, This was not modeled at all that i can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 wow--jackpot for you. Already more then my original thoughts. I shut the sled off for now and left the garage door open................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Somebody call the waaambulence ! Enjoy your snow it could be worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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