shawnmov Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This storm has one of the most awkward evolutions to it then i have seen I think your avatar says it all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Nowcaster bros, strange setups often are the ones that surprise in a good way, sometimes not but again something's up. I still think Boston makes 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I think your avatar says it all! Basically how most of this winter has been up to 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 And we're down to 15 members on the forum. RIP to this event. Next....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 You know with all this abject chastising of the NAM going down ... you realize if this storm does for the most part only bring .25" to SE zones, while all these models you embrace still argue a pan-wide 4-7 inches, ....well... something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Gfs snow maps 2-4 from or nw. Real brutal run from what was advertise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Gfs snow maps 2-4 from or nw. Real brutal run from what was advertise GFS would be more than that here. The low snow maps are a direct result of the GFS boundary layer conditions which are almost always too warm over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 LOL :lmao: DT on board!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 LOL :lmao: DT on board!! Lol, what kind of map is that, looks like my 6 year old cousin drew it and shaded in areas with her crayons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 LOL :lmao: DT on board!! out at a bar and laughed out loud... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Ukie won't let go of the bigger storm idea...though not as ridiculous as the 12z solution, but easily warning criteria for a pretty large area. GGEM actually came NW and grazes E MA with the main commahead of the coastal portion fo the storm. I wasn't expecting that model to come back a bit. What a weird storm to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Ukie won't let go of the bigger storm idea...though not as ridiculous as the 12z solution, but easily warning criteria for a pretty large area. GGEM actually came NW and grazes E MA with the main commahead of the coastal portion fo the storm. I wasn't expecting that model to come back a bit. What a weird storm to follow.what a mess. In 3 days This thing has pretty much transitioned into at least 3 different types of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 what a mess. In 3 days This thing has pretty much transitioned into at least 3 different types of storms. Toaster bath, bridge jump, and exhaust sniffer? How many different ways can we try and squeeze out a half inch of QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 what a mess. In 3 days This thing has pretty much transitioned into at least 3 different types of storms. I think I would just forecast 6 or 7 inches here and hope it works out by the time all the smoke clears Monday morning. But I could see this failing too and give 3" or ending up under some enhanced inverted band aided by upslope NE flow and endup with 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 what a mess. In 3 days This thing has pretty much transitioned into at least 3 different types of storms. how about a cutter, pure miller B, pure miller A, OES... let's see, how many runs are left...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Toaster bath, bridge jump, and exhaust sniffer? How many different ways can we try and squeeze out a half inch of QPF? i dunno. At various times we've had crushing coastal and ccb, sw flow look, and now norlun look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I think I would just forecast 6 or 7 inches here and hope it works out by the time all the smoke clears Monday morning. But I could see this failing too and give 3" or ending up under some enhanced inverted band aided by upslope NE flow and endup with 10". Most of CT probably ends up with a slushy inch or two at best... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 would be funny if the more amped solutions started showing up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I think I would just forecast 6 or 7 inches here and hope it works out by the time all the smoke clears Monday morning. But I could see this failing too and give 3" or ending up under some enhanced inverted band aided by upslope NE flow and endup with 10".we'll see what happens but that mass pike-rte 2 corridor looked so promising not long ago. Now u gotta hope for inverted trof band to give you the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This storm is the biggest train wreck of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Blizzard option is still on the table. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 i dunno. At various times we've had crushing coastal and ccb, sw flow look, and now norlun look. This one has had all of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The sref members still show a ton of spread here. Might be best to hold onto the watch til mon morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Ukie won't let go of the bigger storm idea...though not as ridiculous as the 12z solution, but easily warning criteria for a pretty large area. GGEM actually came NW and grazes E MA with the main commahead of the coastal portion fo the storm. I wasn't expecting that model to come back a bit. What a weird storm to follow. There's likely to be a middling storm out of this. Nothing historic ...or shall we say, histrionic ... There is malcontent because underpinning all the NAM bashing and whatever, is the fault of the user in really going full into the enormous solutions of previous cycles, and then having to face the reality that they allowed themselves to be fooled. Instead of admitting/acknowledging their role in all this, it is easier to just point fingers and blame. Fact that matter is, the NAM looked unstable when it was running away with the big QPF numbers, all the while - I even posted that my self. I think it was point blank that I thought those enormous NAM QPF numbers looked suspicious. The instability in storm intensity was illustrated run to run, while still maintaining large numbers; that was the reason for the suspicion. One run would be weak, big numbers. Next run, stronger, big numbers. Then, it was barely below 1000mb on one run with still giant numbers. It's really more like it errored large numbers the whole time, giving kind of an illusion of consistency for 4 cycles. The first responder posters of each big NAM QPF was always "crushed" this, and "pounded" first, less analysis that might have honed in on the system oddities comparing run to run - but that escaped most. It really rings louder that users were more interested in seeing giant snow numbers, rather than real model analysis. If the model was as bad as characterized, here, tonight, there is no way that NCEP would spend the money to run the damn thing 4 times a day. We can joke about a "government operation", but no. It wouldn't be run. I'm really not put out by the NAM's performance on this... Sorry, I'm not. I took each run with a grain of assault, and tried to defend the model by mentioning that performs bettern when gradients are steeper. That actually makes sense. Mike (Arnold) and I once shared a few post where we agreed, part of the NAM's problem is that it's like it is too good for the amount of data it is given to process. It needs data point, direct inputs that are even to its grid resolution, and until it gets that, it really can't be tested. And, it's had good performances in the past where clearly the data sparseness it suffers over the longer haul of its operation curve, were not necessary. When the gradient is steep, there is less permutation, and the "holes" don't need to be filled. At even 48 hours out, the llv gradient is not often assessed very well. Anyway, the 00z GFS did come back a small tick compared to 12z; if it comes back the same amount on 06z then it's back onto a high end advisory with warning lolly-pops for a large area, and it would probably be more inline with the Euro. ...UKMET... Then the NAM comes back on board when it is nearer terms and the "holes" are no longer there. But if the storm misses altogether, nothing was right. And the NAM still gets the dishonor. Not fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The sref members still show a ton of spread here. Might be best to hold onto the watch til the euro comes out I agree.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 But if the storm misses altogether, nothing was right. And the NAM still gets the dishonor. Not fair. Yeah, the models have all been terrible for this event... some worse than others though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Blizzard option is still on the table. Lol. Blizzard was never on the table. Heavy snow, sure. ... but a blizzard requires wind that wasn't really ever in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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