Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Guys as we said every wobble has a big outcome to what may happen. Three days out.its less than 48 hours out lol. It starts in CT Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Folks should not be "disappointed" by the Euro solution. It really falls much in line with a clear tempo that was established upon the 00z cycle across the spectrum of model types... What folks should really be interested in is why is the NAM going so large. It could owe to a finite resolution with the local frontal topography and how well various jet mechanics interact - remember, December 2005 the NAM scored a huge coup on that system, by seeing a much more discrete version of the low level thermal gradient; the steepness of the 1000 to 800mb frontal slope helped to really focus/tuck UVM farther NW of all other guidance - and well ... heh, we know how that worked out. It "could" be doing something similar here in seeing something the others aren't. But all the while, and as we said at the thread outset ... the NAM is suspiciously over-baked with its QPF pending we figure out exactly what/why it is doing what it is doing. 7 years ago it got one right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Guys as we said every wobble has a big outcome to what may happen. Three days out. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 its less than 48 hours out lol. It starts in CT Saturday morning glass-half full: the euro is cooking up a huge screaming sou'easter next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 7 years ago it got one right. LOL - ... still, unique set up that fit right in with the NAM's capability. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thank you for a most entertaining Euro PBP. I did recover from the lightheadedness caused by the rapid rushing of blood into and out of my wiener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'll stick with the Euro rather than go on a wild goose chase with other guidance...GFS/Ukie/GGEM all have made swings much mroe violent. If you are asking for perfection from NWP guidance at 3 days out, then you'll be sorely disappointed. I'm looking mostly at the upper air as very small changes can lead to larger changes in the surface reflection. That's true but the Euro has been far from consistent. It had a 988mb blizzard around the BM last run, was further west the run prior to that delivering the goods further north. Now it's east of even the 0z, and much weaker. 3 runs it's moved steadily weaker/OTS in the earlier stages. Hopefully it's close to locking in, but I tend to think the movements out are probably not done. It's not that I expect perfection from the Euro, I just don't think it's been all that consistent. "More" consistent then others sure, but it's still moving steadily out. What I'm driving at is looking at the 12z run(s) and expecting we're close to a solution is probably going to be folly, which is likely why guys like Barry Burbank just tossed in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 glass-half full: the euro is cooking up a huge screaming sou'easter next week. Actually more like a paste bomb for ORH ...posted it in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Guys as we said every wobble has a big outcome to what may happen. Three days out. I saw the maps saying 12+, it's locked. A lot of spiking at the 5 yard line this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I will sum it up for up here, Not as good as 0z, It keeps trending weaker and further SE for us, Stll not bad .50" qpf, But way down from its last 2 runs Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The GFS was nice for us west of ALB with next weeks low. Of course that has plenty of time to trend east for run after run. We gotta hope for a weaker bowling ball primary. Every storm this year wants to head to the UP of Michigan. With a coastal secondary from Hatteras to George's Bank. I think this ones breaks the mold. But can we get a strong enough secondary? For now is looks warm for valley areas. Starting to see more elongation and tilt out into the Atlantic at h5 on the 5 day charts. That would mean a better chance to avoid a coastal low heading inland. At least the high QPF signal has been there for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Actually more like a paste bomb for ORH ...posted it in the other thread. that storm is awesome. i want that to happen just to see all the weird stuff it would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Icestorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Read the whole thread before my daily question. How much QPF on Euro for CNE. I assume maybe .25" now? Any input would very much be appreciated!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Read the whole thread before my daily question. How much QPF on Euro for CNE. I assume maybe .25" now? Any input would very much be appreciated!!! .50" or close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...euro no longer the next week rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Why are people standing hat in hand waiting for play by play on the ECMWF and getting pissed when nobody can describe it clearly? Do you not know about the free WUNDERMAP where you can see everything at 3hrly intervals, including QPF? I hate their 850 T color scheme and cant interpret it cause its so crappy with its colors around 0C but otherwise, most of the typical maps are available. Stop asking and look for yourself if you are not satisfied by somebody elses play by play. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...euro no longer the next week rainer. Irrelevant at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 From a non-met, noob: The previous 10 posters regarding the Euro are Good, bad, meh, Good, bad ,meh, 1.25" EMa, Good, bad meh. I was guilty of looking at 60h and thinking it would be better but this is such a close call and complex setup that very slight differences can lead to large sensible wx swings. Its still a pretty nice run actually...takes a while to get going but it would be a nice snow on Sunday...even for BOS. The upper level track is good. We'd obviously like to see the more dynamic solution some back in the next 36 hours though for a higher end warning snowfall. Still plenty of time on this one. I'm fairly optimistic many will see a decent accumulating snow, but whether its 4" or 10" remains to be decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Why are people standing hat in hand waiting for play by play on the ECMWF and getting pissed when nobody can describe it clearly? Do you not know about the free WUNDERMAP where you can see everything at 3hrly intervals, including QPF? I hate their 850 T color scheme and cant interpret it cause its so crappy with its colors around 0C but otherwise, most of the typical maps are available. Stop asking and look for yourself if you are not satisfied by somebody elses play by play. Those maps are delayed by about 10-15 min...so patience is a virtue with wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 .50" or close Again dryslot thanks for answering my daily question. I just don't like the trend, I would gladly take .50" but I think by tomorrow we will be talking about less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Retro low.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Why are people standing hat in hand waiting for play by play on the ECMWF and getting pissed when nobody can describe it clearly? Do you not know about the free WUNDERMAP where you can see everything at 3hrly intervals, including QPF? I hate their 850 T color scheme and cant interpret it cause its so crappy with its colors around 0C but otherwise, most of the typical maps are available. Stop asking and look for yourself if you are not satisfied by somebody elses play by play. Jesus. No, They all want a panel by panel 3 paragraph analysis of how ****ty it looks................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The link you poster is for a tweet yesterday. here is his latast tweet, Barry Burbank@BarryWBZ Boston needs 9.4 more inches of snow to make this the snowiest February on record- beating 41.3" in 2/69. As of now, I'm looking @ 6-7"! Just posted by Burbank... Interesting... Barry Burbank@BarryWBZ NO blockbuster this weekend. Latest guidance leaning to just a few inches of snow closer to Boston Sunday morning into part of the aft'n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Those maps are delayed by about 10-15 min...so patience is a virtue with wunderground. So run to the bathroom, do something around the house/office and then come back and look. I just don't see the need for MBY BS and 10 posts complaining about peoples interpretations or lack thereof when they can solve the problem by themselves if they wait for 15min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthieWX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 And Burbank clarifies his previous post of a "few inches": Barry Burbank@BarryWBZ Boston needs 9.4 more inches of snow to make this the snowiest February on record- beating 41.3" in 2/69. As of now, I'm looking @ 6-7"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So run to the bathroom, do something around the house/office and then come back and look. I just don't see the need for MBY BS and 10 posts complaining about peoples interpretations or lack thereof when they can solve the problem by themselves if they wait for 15min. Glad we're on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I dunno but I think this solution sounds all f'd up and not really possible. We may have to toss this So now you're tossing the Euro, too?? LOL! I don't think there are any left--just you. Lol...euro no longer the next week rainer. Two more days and it'll become a Phil blizzard. I cant' see EC precip maps. How's it look toward GC? Thanksk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I had to run out to work so sorry being terse with the model disco. Did not mean to drop a bomb and run..lol, but figured Will and Phil would take ver which they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I can't help but think this afternoon's data is just a hiccup. This things has looked like a nice snowstorm to me since Saturday Evening 2-16-2013 when someone here first mentioned it as a long range threat. Every time since then that i've checked the model outputs it looks good to me (in S. NH). Now, after 5 straight days of remarkably consistant solutions with broad model agreement everyone flips out with a set of less than impressive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.