CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This is totally NOT a troll post... but I do want my snow to melt so I can get some work done in the yard and work on putting up my wx station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Eh, I dunno. The reach of social media is still a tiny fraction of what an actual newscast will get. I have about 5k followers on Twitter but a highly rated newscast prior to a big storm can reach 100,000 households here in CT. Social media is important but I think it's impact can be overstated. Saying models look bad at this point is reasonable. They do. Everything continues to cut back, cut back, cut back. The storm never looked overly promising IMO back this way but the trend is unmistakable. This storm is a good reminder that QPF hugging will give you ugly forecasts most of the time. Fair enough. Well, like I've stated, the biggest problem IMO was airing maps 96 hours out. But also, 7news retweets and facebook posts a lot of Bruchards tweets so that brings it from 8K people to 30-50K, so a big difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 As far as I'm concerend there's still a storm coming and I'll finish the weekend with more snow than I started with. Win. Well, "storm" seems a bit strong, but yeah, we will have a net gain, my wife will snowshoe, and I will ski... all is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 oh i know - i didn't mean any disrespect trust me. i'm far from a modeling expert and i know folks on here like DTK could certainly speak better to this...but imo, it's kind of intuitive. to me, an analogy (as bad as it might be) is the NAM in its current state, is like throwing a ferrari engine in a camry. the model is just not meant to have that kind of power. it isn't built to handle how "good" the main parts are. so, as a result, it can do some whacky stuff. back when it was the eta and lower resolution horizontally and vertically and with a different set of core physics, i think it was a better, more consistent model, despite its shortcomings. i know that's a crude way of looking at it, and someone with more expertise in the area might think that's a load of poo, but that's how i see it. The current WRF is a much better model for convection than the older verisons of the NAM...however, it def is less consistent with synoptic winter storms from how I remember the old ETA. The ETA did have its horrendous bust though too...but it def seemed to score some coups whereas the WRF hardly ever does in winter events these days...but for convection its far superior now. I guess that is the trade off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This is totally NOT a troll post... but I do want my snow to melt so I can get some work done in the yard and work on putting up my wx station. They made this new invention,a shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This is totally NOT a troll post... but I do want my snow to melt so I can get some work done in the yard and work on putting up my wx station.Give it time. Enjoy what us got.I spent part of the day doing branch cleanup at my moms from the blizzard. Impressive damage on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 They made this new invention,a shovel. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Latest RPM gives Tolland about an inch of snow and Hubbdave 10", lol. That would be worth it just to watch the meltdown. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Low low low expectations. Blizzard messed up some heads A few weeks ago 2-3" was gold A few weeks ago we were in the heart of winter and 2 or 3 inches might have a chance of hanging around. With the sun angle where it is in late Feb, 2 or 3 inches is lucky to make it through a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 social media........ftl, That is going to be weather's downfall It will be a lot more than just weathers downfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Eh, I dunno. The reach of social media is still a tiny fraction of what an actual newscast will get. I have about 5k followers on Twitter but a highly rated newscast prior to a big storm can reach 100,000 households here in CT. Social media is important but I think it's impact can be overstated. Saying models look bad at this point is reasonable. They do. Everything continues to cut back, cut back, cut back. The storm never looked overly promising IMO back this way but the trend is unmistakable. This storm is a good reminder that QPF hugging will give you ugly forecasts most of the time. Well, When you have folks taking maps that are put out by these media weather outlets, Photoshop there own accumulations and re post them for everyone to see with outlandish totals It gets the public worked up into a frenzy for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Latest RPM gives Tolland about an inch of snow and Hubbdave 10", lol. That would be worth it just to watch the meltdown. Yeah, that will be interesting to watch. 29F here with a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The current WRF is a much better model for convection than the older verisons of the NAM...however, it def is less consistent with synoptic winter storms from how I remember the old ETA. The ETA did have its horrendous bust though too...but it def seemed to score some coups whereas the WRF hardly ever does in winter events these days...but for convection its far superior now. I guess that is the trade off. yeah i agree. and of course i'll always look to the NAM to handle certain things. that said, i don't even trust this 00z run. it may be on the right track with the coastal, but beyond that, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 A few weeks ago we were in the heart of winter and 2 or 3 inches might have a chance of hanging around. With the sun angle where it is in late Feb, 2 or 3 inches is lucky to make it through a couple of days. Glad I am at 1000 feet. Helps a little. But yeah, the sun does a number on it. Still a good, solid pack from Feb 9 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well, When you have folks taking maps that are put out by these media weather outlets, Photoshop there own accumulations and re post them for everyone to see with outlandish totals It gets the public worked up into a frenzy for no reasonI have not seen this yet...I wish Sam still made maps for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 They made this new invention,a shovel. The snow around here has 1" + of ice base which would be tough to remove with a shovel, best to just let it melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The snow around here has 1" + of ice base which would be tough to remove with a shovel, best to just let it melt.Hmm I made paths when it was soft, made a big area for the dogs, it melted to bare ground, shoveled off the 3 from the other day, bare again. I am just bustin Ryan anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Hmm I made paths when it was soft, made a big area for the dogs, it melted to bare ground, shoveled off the 3 from the other day, bare again. I am just bustin Ryan anyway. I actually got a nice note from our oil delivery person about the path I cleared for him after the Feb 9 nuisance event. Wachusett still making snow last night. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 social media........ftl, That is going to be weather's downfall It's not helping that is for sure. What were the caution flags? Was it the se trend? Lack of a block? The steady SE trend in the Euro. Every storm but the blizzard has struggled to develop in time, and ALL including even the blizzard featured stalls/crawls further E or NE than modeled. Remember really the only thing the Euro struggled with was the stall point inside of 3 days which gave Maine a blizzard, and spared Boston and other areas in eastern New England from having a clear #1 for decades to come. It's been an oddly progressive pattern even with major bombs until they're just out of reach like last weekend. *** Let's not forget something. ALL the models stunk with this storm far as I could see. Euro has shifted the low hundreds of miles SE in the last day and it was the best. GFS/NAM/CMC/UNCLE...all bad. GFS storm wise is going to be fuglier...unless it has norlun magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Fuglier? Will people get negative snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The current WRF is a much better model for convection than the older verisons of the NAM...however, it def is less consistent with synoptic winter storms from how I remember the old ETA. The ETA did have its horrendous bust though too...but it def seemed to score some coups whereas the WRF hardly ever does in winter events these days...but for convection its far superior now. I guess that is the trade off. That's not surprising when you consider the large area and population of the country that can be affected by high impact, short-fused convection. So much effort has gone into the convective initiation and evolution problem that sacrifices have been made in other areas. Like we've been saying though, it is part of why we're paid to do this job. We're supposed to know what the models can and can't do well and apply that knowledge to the situation at hand. That being said, it's been a pretty awful showing the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Fuglier? Will people get negative snowfall? Yes, look out your window, I'm filling up my El Camino with your snow and delivering it to Kevin's front yard overnight. I'm going to throw it from his rooftop so it'll take him awhile to figure out it didn't fall from the sky. RGEM/NAM and probably the GFS still make it interesting with the trough/ish stuff. It'd be funny if someone got a foot out of this after the last day. Watching the TV mets at 10..depressed bunch. EDIT (and btw rgem/GFS are close enough with the heavier stuff as the low develops...probably too warm but could get interesting) Anyway, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I have not seen this yet... I wish Sam still made maps for us. Sam's maps always had some 'Unique' features to them........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Does .4 in 8 hrs accumulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 That's not surprising when you consider the large area and population of the country that can be affected by high impact, short-fused convection. So much effort has gone into the convective initiation and evolution problem that sacrifices have been made in other areas. Like we've been saying though, it is part of why we're paid to do this job. We're supposed to know what the models can and can't do well and apply that knowledge to the situation at hand. That being said, it's been a pretty awful showing the last couple of days. I think the need to have the NAM is less now anyway for synoptic winter events now that the ECMWF runs twice a day with data more accessible now and faster than ever before. It used to be only available once per day with crude parameters graphically and we had to wait until 8pm to get the 12z run....even when it started running twice a day it wouldnt be available until about 4. Now for the past 5 or 6 years or so its available with better parameters and fast enough to be useful for a shorter term forecast. NAM can do well in CAD events (well before this winter anyway)...but really it should probably never be used for more synoptic aspects of a winter storm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS actually looks a bit better to me than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS is close to a mini-snow bomb here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This storm has one of the most awkward evolutions to it then i have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS is basically light snow tomorrow at 7pm to Sunday midnight...about .5 to .8 for areas that are snow...so 4-7" or so. NBD really but nice snowy weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS is close to a mini-snow bomb here.I do not think this story is over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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