Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 the NAM absolutely SUCKED with the blizzard. sucked. i know because 24 hours out the model, on the friday 12z run, took the low over my head. you can ask scooter because he and i texted back and forth about it. it verified SOUTH of the benchmark 24 hours later. thur 12z not friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol. any snow is good snow? Yeah I'll enjoy it even if it takes 30 hours to fall....I was just about ready to bite on the 12"+ totals, but this is a good example of why we always say stuff like "I'm getting confident in a low end to moderate warning event, but not quite ready to bite just yet on the really big totals"....even though its very tempting to go totall gung ho. Guidance just isn't totally reliable yet 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 it's like a NAM lynch mob in here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The NAM looks like the GFS now, but with fewer ULL flurries on Sunday. Model consensus approaching (unless the UK tries something crazy again tonight). I hope this is rock bottom and we start improving tomorrow. Good luck all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I don't consider NAM "major guidance", especially outside 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Still think something's up, we will see by Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah how did I miss that 2" of qpf the NAM gave me from the "Blizzard"? It ended up being maybe .6" LOL Or the 1.5" it was giving me on yesterday's 12Z run that is now .25" the NAM absolutely SUCKED with the blizzard. sucked. i know because 24 hours out the model, on the friday 12z run, took the low over my head. you can ask scooter because he and i texted back and forth about it. it verified SOUTH of the benchmark 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah I'll enjoy it even if it takes 30 hours to fall....I was just about ready to bite on the 12"+ totals, but this is a good example of why we always say stuff like "I'm getting confident in a low end to moderate warning event, but not quite ready to bite just yet on the really big totals"....even though its very tempting to go totall gung ho. Guidance just isn't totally reliable yet 3 days out. i'm hopeful that the globals seeing the inverted trough feature is a good sign for something Sunday afternoon/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 it's like a NAM lynch mob in here lol lol. imo, you just have to know when to use it and when not to. certain situations it will do well. you can also take pieces of what it is doing and combine it with other guidance. but as a whole, it sucks. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Another HUGE problem is that a lot of TV mets tweet every run. Bruchard, Harvey, and Noyes all tweeted in the past half hour that recent guidance is showing they may have to drop totals again. Why would they tweet that? Over what, the NAM? I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Another HUGE problem is that a lot of TV mets tweet every run. Bruchard, Harvey, and Noyes all tweeted in the past half hour that recent guidance is showing they may have to drop totals again. Why would they tweet that? Over what, the NAM? I don't get it. social media........ftl, That is going to be weather's downfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 social media........ftl, That is going to be weather's downfall It really is. People used to get the weather report once a day, and no snowfall maps until 36-48hr before. Now they get weather reports as much as they want, and snowfall maps 84+ hours ahead of time. Makes mets look even worse. But I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I am beginning to think many areas in CT will struggle past 1" or 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Caution flags and Scooter/Phil FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Still think something's up, we will see by Mon. Enough uncertainty to figure some one will be pleasently surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol. imo, you just have to know when to use it and when not to. certain situations it will do well. you can also take pieces of what it is doing and combine it with other guidance. but as a whole, it sucks. lol. lol I've been here long enough (since EasternUSWx) to remember days when the NAM (then ETA) was one of the better pieces of guidance within 60hrs, maybe the best within 48hrs. You could generally take the EE rule to the bank. I don't know what happened this season, it has been very obviously and consistently terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Caution flags and Scooter/Phil FTW. You were throwing warranted caution flags yourself yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It really is. People used to get the weather report once a day, and no snowfall maps until 36-48hr before. Now they get weather reports as much as they want, and snowfall maps 84+ hours ahead of time. Makes mets look even worse. But I digress. so many people now put out maps/info etc.. facebook, twitter.. its crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Enough uncertainty to figure some one will be pleasently surprised.Low low low expectations. Blizzard messed up some headsA few weeks ago 2-3" was gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Latest RPM gives Tolland about an inch of snow and Hubbdave 10", lol. That would be worth it just to watch the meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 You were throwing warranted caution flags yourself yesterday. Yeah but I wasn't really forecasting. Was up on MWN and just looking at stuff for fun. At least for MBY I never expected much but did see the potential northeast of here. Looks like an epic bust all the way around though. Caution flags are put up for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 What were the caution flags? Was it the se trend? Lack of a block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Caution flags and Scooter/Phil FTW. Well just speaking for here.....this area had them like 4 days ago. We probably had to worry about things much more than the interior. I think the ORH hills are ok...just a matter of moisture...but this had my flags up here locally or a while. I was Getting a little more excited after the 00z runs came out last night, but now it's all about an inv middle finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Not an especially cold night. Marginal temps are a bit of a worry. 29F here. Overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Another HUGE problem is that a lot of TV mets tweet every run. Bruchard, Harvey, and Noyes all tweeted in the past half hour that recent guidance is showing they may have to drop totals again. Why would they tweet that? Over what, the NAM? I don't get it. social media........ftl, That is going to be weather's downfall Eh, I dunno. The reach of social media is still a tiny fraction of what an actual newscast will get. I have about 5k followers on Twitter but a highly rated newscast prior to a big storm can reach 100,000 households here in CT. Social media is important but I think it's impact can be overstated. Saying models look bad at this point is reasonable. They do. Everything continues to cut back, cut back, cut back. The storm never looked overly promising IMO back this way but the trend is unmistakable. This storm is a good reminder that QPF hugging will give you ugly forecasts most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol I've been here long enough (since EasternUSWx) to remember days when the NAM (then ETA) was one of the better pieces of guidance within 60hrs, maybe the best within 48hrs. You could generally take the EE rule to the bank. I don't know what happened this season, it has been very obviously and consistently terrible. oh i know - i didn't mean any disrespect trust me. i'm far from a modeling expert and i know folks on here like DTK could certainly speak better to this...but imo, it's kind of intuitive. to me, an analogy (as bad as it might be) is the NAM in its current state, is like throwing a ferrari engine in a camry. the model is just not meant to have that kind of power. it isn't built to handle how "good" the main parts are. so, as a result, it can do some whacky stuff. back when it was the eta and lower resolution horizontally and vertically and with a different set of core physics, i think it was a better, more consistent model, despite its shortcomings. i know that's a crude way of looking at it, and someone with more expertise in the area might think that's a load of poo, but that's how i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well just speaking for here.....this area had them like 4 days ago. We probably had to worry about things much more than the interior. I think the ORH hills are ok...just a matter of moisture...but this had my flags up here locally or a while. I was Getting a little more excited after the 00z runs came out last night, but now it's all about an inv middle finger. Yeah we'll see. Perfect example back here of meteorology not modelology as our friend from the hill likes to say. Euro cobbled together like 1/2" liquid for BDL but a lot of that was either mixed or came from the inv trough action. The latter in its progged position almost always sucks west of the ORH hills... so meteorology says QPF blob probably overdone west of ORH and cut back. Just ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Low low low expectations. Blizzard messed up some heads A few weeks ago 2-3" was gold As far as I'm concerend there's still a storm coming and I'll finish the weekend with more snow than I started with. Win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 oh i know - i didn't mean any disrespect trust me. i'm far from a modeling expert and i know folks on here like DTK could certainly speak better to this...but imo, it's kind of intuitive. to me, an analogy (as bad as it might be) is the NAM in its current state, is like throwing a ferrari engine in a camry. the model is just not meant to have that kind of power. it isn't built to handle how "good" the main parts are. so, as a result, it can do some whacky stuff. back when it was the eta and lower resolution horizontally and vertically and with a different set of core physics, i think it was a better, more consistent model, despite its shortcomings. i know that's a crude way of looking at it, and someone with more expertise in the area might think that's a load of poo, but that's how i see it. I think this is a very apt analogy. It's not designed to handle complex synoptic evolutions. As a non-hydrostatic and high resolution model it's good at some things and not at others. I certainly put much more stock in it in the summer (within 24 or 36 hours) than this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 What were the caution flags? Was it the se trend? Lack of a block? For you guys it's different. One of the issues we all talked about was the upper level low over the great lakes, and a strong shortwave diving on the back side into western Texas. The problem we have is that the ULL over th Great Lakes was wobbling east while the energy over Texas dove south and was lagging behind. The result, the low coming tomorrow basically is driven by the energy from the ULL over the Lakes and slips east before the Texas shortwave can catch up and really blow up a CCB over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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