ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I still like my 5-9/6-10 here...BL issues will be minimal in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 I still like my 5-9/6-10 here...BL issues will be minimal in the hills. If there is any truth to the idea that half the 18z initialization grid is based upon the 6 hour procession of events from the 12z run, than it makes perfect sense that the 18z run went even farther SE, because it based on the same damn genetics. Same with the NAM for that matter - I think if there is to be an adjustment back NW it would not have come until the fresh inputs on the 00z cycle, anyway. Frankly I wish NCEP wouldn't bother with 18z unless the data is full suite. People laughed at me and bunned me when I said the 00z had a Norlun aspect to it, now that's what we pining for? hah! The other thing that is annoying is when the Diagnostics desk at NCEPs says the initialization errors don't appear to significantly effect blah blah blah. Give us a f break! 300 miles of continuity shift in 2 cycles came from some where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 After getting such a massive storm...the SNE people think that big 8-12 type dumps are the "new norm". Well... a pedestrian 3-6" type thing will seems very boring after that. I'd take it and run here... Huh? He's the only one forecasting reality in this storm versus the weenies. We've got a poor airmass with east winds and a coastal dying to the east, potentially spawning an inverted trough at Day 4, and people are calling for 8-12" of accumulation. I think a lot of posters are stuck with earlier forecasts and are not adapting to the changes in the models, which, needless to say, have not been favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The public numbers in retreat mode... I think this looks reasonable given trends today, might even have to tick back more... WHDH_02_22_2013_pm.png Meh...I think really the solution itself has entirely changed from what models were predicting days ago. I said as much to another member offline - just figured was better to let sleeping dogs lay until we got closer. Let's see what the models bring about tonight, I think we've got to detach from what was being shown 2-3, even 18 hours ago because it doesn't really matter. Analogs are surely useful, but only to the point that the underlying predicted pattern is close. Everything aside of the blizzard developed later than we would have liked. I would think the bumps we've seen continue, where that leaves us? OT, but actually shocked how little snow there is OTG in New England. Around Plymouth NH there's some decent cover, less on the road up to Loon. Loon itself has reasonable cover, but compared to normal I have to think it's really low. Great skiing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 After getting such a massive storm...the SNE people think that big 8-12 type dumps are the "new norm". Well... a pedestrian 3-6" type thing will seems very boring after that. I'd take it and run here... Well I would too. My issue is that if it's half an inch of QPF spread out during 42 hrs, it won't add up to much thanks to a variety of issues. Having it fall in 6 hrs is different. Maybe the inv trough comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 OT, but actually shocked how little snow there is OTG in New England. Around Plymouth NH there's some decent cover, less on the road up to Loon. Loon itself has reasonable cover, but compared to normal I have to think it's really low. Great skiing though. Was talking to another Met about this... The blizzard ended and the cold went with it... The next day was in the upper 30s, then it was sunny and 44-49 the rest of that week and that 23" of powdery snow was all the way down to just 5" of corn snow here in Ayer. Then a storm failure did nothing to add, and we it's turned a little colder over the last 2 days. There was no snow pack prior to he blizzard, so really...despite a very real shot at breaking a February snow record for some sites, this month has had an equally epic, albeit sneaky means to disappoint snow lovers. Pretty weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Noyes:Our @NECN forecast: 3" max Plymouth MA; 3.5" @BostonLogan; 6" Lawrence; 8" Worcester; 3.5" Springfield; 2" Hartford CT More @NECN Forecast: 8" Manchester NH; 8.5" Concord; 5.5" Portsmouth; 6.5" Portland; 4" Burlington VT; 7" Springfield VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Then when you factor in the areas to the northwest of that blizzard dump who haven't had much in general....there must be very few places in NE or west across Upstate NY with deep snow pack. There is essentially nothing in any valleys around here. I'm hanging onto several inches of junk. Was talking to another Met about this... The blizzard ended and the cold went with it... The next day was in the upper 30s, then it was sunny and 44-49 the rest of that week and that 23" of powdery snow was all the way down to just 5" of corn snow here in Ayer. Then a storm failure did nothing to add, and we it's turned a little colder over the last 2 days. There was no snow pack prior to he blizzard, so really...despite a very real shot at breaking a February snow record for some sites, this month has had an equally epic, albeit means to disappoint snow lovers. Pretty weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 If there is any truth to the idea that half the 18z initialization grid is based upon the 6 hour procession of events from the 12z run, than it makes perfect sense that the 18z run went even farther SE, because it based on the same damn genetics. Same with the NAM for that matter - I think if there is to be an adjustment back NW it would not have come until the fresh inputs on the 00z cycle, anyway. Frankly I wish NCEP wouldn't bother with 18z unless the data is full suite. People laughed at me and bunned me when I said the 00z had a Norlun aspect to it, now that's what we pining for? hah! The other thing that is annoying is when the Diagnostics desk at NCEPs says the initialization errors don't appear to significantly effect blah blah blah. Give us a f break! 300 miles of continuity shift in 2 cycles came from some where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Lots of crabbiness on here today. Big deal...it is snow. 5-9" here sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Lots of crabbiness on here today. Big deal...it is snow. 5-9" here sounds good BOX has 6-8 for mby. I'll be damned if that happens, I'm not sure where it would be coming from. "Hi. I'm MPM and I have a qpf-fetish......." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 NAM a bit toasty.....??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah now that we are in inverted trough territory it's gonna be hit and miss. Somebody will probably get 6-8. You might have a better shot since you can fight the diurnal effects at 1k feet better during the extended period of lighter snow. BOX has 6-8 for mby. I'll be damned if that happens, I'm not sure where it would be coming from. "Hi. I'm MPM and I have a qpf-fetish......." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 BOX has 6-8 for mby. I'll be damned if that happens, I'm not sure where it would be coming from. "Hi. I'm MPM and I have a qpf-fetish......." well, last Saturday I woke to 3.5" of fluff when I expected flurries to an inch....sometimes in a setup like this, you can get a decent ratio and put together 6" on scant precip. Of course that wont mean squat over 36 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 the NAM looks horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just a hunch Hunchie somebody in CNE is going to be happy happy happy. Oh and yea there is still a lot of snow around CT. Man I am glad I do not live in cities.Ryan linked this today http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlanticcities.com%2Fpolitics%2F2013%2F02%2Fconnecticut-unplowed-streets-might-be-new-normal%2F4777%2F&h=gAQGuAd_g&s=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I honestly don't even care what the NAM has. If the model that comes at at 1am holds serve, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 the NAM looks horrible. Ya think???/Yesssh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The NAM still has a pretty decent s/w from the Tn valley towards the mid-atl coast 24hrs through 36hrs. It's too bad this is mostly wasted. Looks a hair more potent this run. Could be a late deepening of the SLP and some enhanced precip in EMA in conjunction with upper level passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 the NAM looks horrible. Yeah. But it looks better than the GFS through 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 .25" here .. heck I'll take it. Ya think???/Yesssh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 But do I need to cut that .25 in half since it's the NAM? hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve04074 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Was talking to another Met about this... The blizzard ended and the cold went with it... The next day was in the upper 30s, then it was sunny and 44-49 the rest of that week and that 23" of powdery snow was all the way down to just 5" of corn snow here in Ayer. Then a storm failure did nothing to add, and we it's turned a little colder over the last 2 days. There was no snow pack prior to he blizzard, so really...despite a very real shot at breaking a February snow record for some sites, this month has had an equally epic, albeit sneaky means to disappoint snow lovers. Pretty weird. It's simply not that particularly "cold" anymore in these parts. Both Dec. and Jan. were more than 3F above normal for me at KPWM, and now Feb. is running above normal, too. We bottomed out at -4F at KPWM this meteorological winter, exactly like last winter (which was our 2nd warmest on record). 1971-2000 climo had us bottoming out on average between -15 and -10F. 1981-2010 climo at -9F. We just don't get the sustained stretches of multi-day, dramatically colder than normal temps that we got here at KPWM and elsewhere in New England as recently as the late '90s. It snows. Sometimes BIG. But it no longer sticks around as it once did. When I lived in Burlington from '91-'94, a couple of those winters: once the first significant snow fell by late Nov. or early Dec., we simply *did not see* bare ground until late March or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 people want to bust on the GFS...bust on the NAM. terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 .25" here .. heck I'll take it. Awesome--we get to share in that .25" jackpot. At least it's only drizzle in the warmth to the south. Extensive poweroutages en route. I hope poeple are ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 people want to bust on the GFS...bust on the NAM. terrible. Well the models are only as good as the data that gets input into them. I think the model physics is pretty good. And now the NAM looks like the GFS... possibly with lighter inverted trof QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 people want to bust on the GFS...bust on the NAM. terrible. EURO and SREFs have been consistent with 5-7" here for 3 runs. NAM and GFS have jumped around from 1" qpf to .25" qpf back to .5" to .25". All over the place. I'm relatively confident in 4-8" from up here down to ORH. I agree with you that BOS is the real wild card, could be non accumulating crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 You'd be hard pressed to have that kind of snowcover in Burlington these days. When I lived in Burlington from '91-'94, a couple of those winters: once the first significant snow fell by late Nov. or early Dec., we simply *did not see* bare ground until late March or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well the models are only as good as the data that gets input into them. I think the model physics is pretty good. And now the NAM looks like the GFS... possibly with lighter inverted trof QPF. the NAM is terrible. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Awesome--we get to share in that .25" jackpot. At least it's only drizzle in the warmth to the south. Extensive poweroutages en route. I hope poeple are ready. Where did Blizz disappear to today? Big sale on Lesco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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