HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a hoot of a GFS run. My left nut I don' get the 6-8 on the BOX map. You might see the low end of that. Like I said before this won't be a shutout for us and fresh snow will sure look nice on the pack. Further S in the Pioneer Valley might have some issues acumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'd take that GFS run, haha. This inverted trough thing is always a sketchy proposition but its looking decent on some of these models. If we can get a half inch of QPF up into north/central VT that'll be a win. Relax, you get like 6" every 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Seeing all these changing maps lately starting 4 days out is really, really bad for this industry. Seeing complaints all over the place. Terrible. Whdh just made their 10-14" to 5-8" and they got like 100 comments on FB from people complaining. Maps should be coming out for the first time right now. I don't know why all of a sudden this year maps are made 4 days out, but it's making public perception of mets even worse then before. February Sweeps. Big ratings month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I still think this would be more of a localized snowfall than widespread heavy snow. I don't think anyone has mentioned widespread heavy snow...but spots could hit 8-12" over like 24-36 hours of long duration light to moderate snows. And a good deal of spots could see 4-8" over 24+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Rombalski a lot of those flakes in cocord fall after sun afternnon. When u in concord 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It looks like the RGEM has a little more impact from the coastal low... probably rain with snow for the hills. Beyond that it's difficult to guess, but it probably swings the ULL through in a similar fashion to the GFS. I still think this would be more of a localized snowfall than widespread heavy snow. Almost certain nobody cares what you think about the situation anymore....just a guess. Put some numbers up and make a forecast for major SNE climo sites and perhaps you will garner some interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Relax, you get like 6" every 3 daysLOL...no we don't. I like synoptic storms but am not all that excited...it has a 2-4"/3-5" feel. Plus CT is doing best relative to average of any state in New England. Not every storm will jackpot there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 One intriguing aspect is with some of the current modeling indicating a drawn out event, some in NE could see snow on more days than not over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The wobbling east of the ULL over the GL and the Vortmax hanging back definitely is the issue. Although, it seems like today the srn s/w has gone se. Perhaps the GL upper level low that helped cause the issue can actually help. Was thinking this exact thing... how ironic would it be if the ULL we had wished was farther west for rain/snow issues turns out to salvage this sorry event by being further east. At least that's how things unfold on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You might see the low end of that. Like I said before this won't be a shutout for us and fresh snow will sure look nice on the pack. Further S in the Pioneer Valley might have some issues acumulating. True that on freshenign up the pack. The white's lost a bit of luster. At this point, I can't even tell when the snow's going to come--what a zany system. And to think that stations were going out with amounts. Ha ha ha ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 like Brian said an inverted trough can mean widespread heavy snow, in fact one of yesterdays analogs was a famous inv 1987 wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Almost certain nobody cares what you think about the situation anymore....just a guess. Put some numbers up and make a forecast for major SNE climo sites and perhaps you will garner some interest. I'm not forcing anyone to care what I think. I've been watching and forecasting the weather for longer than most on this board. It can't hurt to have another opinion, especially from outside the circle. Feel free to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 top ten analogs look about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 True that on freshenign up the pack. The white's lost a bit of luster. At this point, I can't even tell when the snow's going to come--what a zany system. And to think that stations were going out with amounts. Ha ha ha ha ha. Box maps have worked out pretty well (out here) overall this winter so I will ride that horse until it collapses. If a day of light snow is what we get, that is what I'll take. I like that the Monadnock region looks to do well because I've seen a few events where enhanced snowfall in that region gives us a bit of a boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Rombalski a lot of those flakes in cocord fall after sun afternnon. When u in concord 2 oh ok...well i'm thinking i might be here through Sunday...or maybe i will be moving to Manchester...i wish i knew for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 LOL...no we don't. I like synoptic storms but am not all that excited...it has a 2-4"/3-5" feel. Plus CT is doing best relative to average of any state in New England. Not every storm will jackpot there Ok well you somehow make it to 333"/yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The public numbers in retreat mode... I think this looks reasonable given trends today, might even have to tick back more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm not forcing anyone to care what I think. I've been watching and forecasting the weather for longer than most on this board. It can't hurt to have another opinion, especially from outside the circle. Feel free to ignore. Of course you are entitled to your opinion. But it just seems like you are trying to figure out ways that the people who are going to get a lot of snow, aren't going to get snow. What is this circle you are speaking of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The evolution of this event has been fascinating. From wound up coastal, to swfe'ish... to weak coastal then inverted trough. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 The evolution of this event has been fascinating. From wound up coastal, to swfe'ish... to weak coastal then inverted trough. Pretty cool It forces me to have to ask a very important question; Is there a bigger sized version of your avatar, and if so, may I please have the URL - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The public numbers in retreat mode... I think this looks reasonable given trends today, might even have to tick back more... WHDH_02_22_2013_pm.png Ignoring NYS, that's one of the better maps I've seen. If I were forecasting I'd knock the max area down an inch or two, and probably cut back along the NH coastline (surface temps could be marginal on Sunday). But I like that general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Of course you are entitled to your opinion. But it just seems like you are trying to figure out ways that the people who are going to get a lot of snow, aren't going to get snow. What is this circle you are speaking of? I always root for the snowiest solution. Always. I just don't like this storm for big snows anywhere. I have been down on it for days. But I don't always downplay storms. I was really hyped about the blizzard, even during the uncertain midrange, and I was too bullish about the SE Mass special last week. I try to call it like I see it. And I think the baseline snowfall forecast started and has remained too high. I hope I'm wrong and this becomes a case study for inverted trof snowstorms. But what's the point of participating in a weather message board if you don't share your opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well, HPC snow maps are still pretty aggressive south and central NH...moderate and a small area of high for 8+. Widespread low prob for 12+ I think that means they feel this will perform better than the trends on the models today. I wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It forces me to have to ask a very important question; Is there a bigger sized version of your avatar, and if so, may I please have the URL - Ignoring NYS, that's one of the better maps I've seen. Looks very similar to the 12z Euro snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The public numbers in retreat mode... I think this looks reasonable given trends today, might even have to tick back more... WHDH_02_22_2013_pm.png Would take that in an instant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Almost certain nobody cares what you think about the situation anymore....just a guess. Put some numbers up and make a forecast for major SNE climo sites and perhaps you will garner some interest. Huh? He's the only one forecasting reality in this storm versus the weenies. We've got a poor airmass with east winds and a coastal dying to the east, potentially spawning an inverted trough at Day 4, and people are calling for 8-12" of accumulation. I think a lot of posters are stuck with earlier forecasts and are not adapting to the changes in the models, which, needless to say, have not been favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 well its snowing here, very lightly but enjoying it none the less, will stop in a minute or two. Every flake should be cherished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Huh? He's the only one forecasting reality in this storm versus the weenies. We've got a poor airmass with east winds and a coastal dying to the east, potentially spawning an inverted trough at Day 4, and people are calling for 8-12" of accumulation. I think a lot of posters are stuck with earlier forecasts and are not adapting to the changes in the models, which, needless to say, have not been favorable. Obviously Nate. All I said was to make a forecast.....I am forecasting 4-6" for KBOS.....yours is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The public numbers in retreat mode... I think this looks reasonable given trends today, might even have to tick back more... WHDH_02_22_2013_pm.png Anyone hear Pete Bouchard during the evening weather....pretty obvious he's been taking some serious heat regarding the copious amounts of snow his team has been predicting the last few days. Out my way the map showed 8-14 even at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well my prediction of seeing no flakes here just busted, just walked out of a restaruant and saw very light snow falling. Over now, and nothing but a trace on the grass, but it's something, and more than I was expecting -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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