OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Even if BOS gets 6", wouldn't it be over more then 24 hours, and an advisory would suffice? A very real possibility of where we're headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Multi run euro trend is for a disjointed low that ends up further and further OTS. Everything else seems kind of irrelevant in terms of trends. Ncep stuff is worthless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Virtual whiff on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I can't believe how far southeast the 18z gfs is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 SREF plumes tend to lag the previous NAM cycle. I would not get too hung up on them since they are likely to continue to edge SE and drier for 21z. But I expect to continue seeing the lingering light snows for Sunday. I thought they used the current cycle? That's why they dont' come out until the Nam run is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yesterday the SREF snowfall algorhithm gave ALB a moderate prob of 8" of snow, today it's low prob of 1" The tool doesn't work during periods of large run to run change (which is almost every storm event). There are not enough individual members and the tendency for high QPF biases the mean. The mean track is more reliable than the mean QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Just left with sort of a norlun looking situation. Still has .25 here from that. I guess I should lower my expectations from 3 inches to 1.5 inches. LOL Virtual whiff on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The inv finger of fate trough snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The inv finger of fate trough snows Watch someone get a foot from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The GFS is finally getting close to reality. Elevation enhanced snowshowers on Sunday the main deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Multi run euro trend is for a disjointed low that ends up further and further OTS. Everything else seems kind of irrelevant in terms of trends. Ncep stuff is worthless It's not just the Euro. It seems almost EVERY model has continually shifted weaker and further SE... feasibly still with room to do so a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Really hangs back the moisture in here until monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Watch someone get a foot from that. That was my thought just looking at the orientation of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Just left with sort of a norlun looking situation. Still has .25 here from that. I guess I should lower my expectations from 3 inches to 1.5 inches. LOL I'm tired of looking at mud and brown grass. I'm just hoping for a coating that can survive the Sunday afternoon torch. 34F and flurries is looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Watch someone get a foot from that. I think it's very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 6-9" here on Sunday/Sunday night with the storm missing LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I think it's very possible. ULL moving underneath and an inv trough acting on rather mild and moist air at the surface. Recipe for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's almost like talking about a different storm. Could the ratios be better in the trough feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 my snowpack may not be washed away after all if there's no QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The mountains should do well. Orographic enhancement and cold temps. The coastal plain could have truble accumulating outside of mesoscale bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Jaffrey area in NH gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ULL moving underneath and an inv trough acting on rather mild and moist air at the surface. Recipe for a surprise. Big fat Norlun looking thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 For here, Its basically all inv trough driven on the GFS, I would not be to keen on it but the other models hint of it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ULL moving underneath and an inv trough acting on rather mild and moist air at the surface. Recipe for a surprise. Yeah probably some good dendrites with that setup and decent ratios. I could definitely see someone pulling off 10 under that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Big fat Norlun looking thing. Now that the srn vort exits towards Bermuda, the parent ULL gets yanked almost underneath us and causes this inv finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lol at GFS...it produces like the whole storm on Sunday/Sunday night. It gives SW NH like 10" of snow from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If the primary whiffs and we're banking on the U/L low to deliver the valley floor might not see more than a coating. Box should strongly consider dropping that watch in eastern hampshire and hampden counties soon. I'd probably sign for bottom end advy criteria and even that might be pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I couldn't draw this up any better for here vs NE CT. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This whole thing has been bizarre from day 1. I'm sure something ridiculous will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 probably wrong, but sweet nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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