OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If you looked at the Euro qpf map and the GYX snowfall map, Its just about identical .75" or so At this point you have to ride it. What a disaster of a 12z suite. I wake up to find the NAM has cut QPF from 00z by a factor of 5?! GFS nearly whiffs. I'm not usually one to rail on NWP, but the consistency is poor at best, and inside of 36 hours. Luckily I based my QPF forecast around the Euro, and it hasn't pulled the rug out from under NNE yet. I am regretting adding that last tier of counties/zones northward in the watch though. Looks much less certain than just 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 At this point you have to ride it. What a disaster of a 12z suite. I wake up to find the NAM has cut QPF from 00z by a factor of 5?! GFS nearly whiffs. I'm not usually one to rail on NWP, but the consistency is poor at best, and inside of 36 hours. Luckily I based my QPF forecast around the Euro, and it hasn't pulled the rug out from under NNE yet. I am regretting adding that last tier of counties/zones northward in the watch though. Looks much less certain than just 12 hours ago. 12z was not very good, It was good to see for now that the 12z Euro, More or less held serve for most of our region, I would not ride anything else at this point, Either its right or it will have been consistently wrong, But i doubt that, At least with the watch, You can downgrade to advisory or less from there instead of dropping a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Don't shoot me for posting this but the RPM shows an eastern Mass snow bomb now. Post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If this came back for eastern areas and ended up being like 10" in BOS by some miracle, I would not want to be a met in Boston. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 At this point you have to ride it. What a disaster of a 12z suite. I wake up to find the NAM has cut QPF from 00z by a factor of 5?! GFS nearly whiffs. I'm not usually one to rail on NWP, but the consistency is poor at best, and inside of 36 hours. Luckily I based my QPF forecast around the Euro, and it hasn't pulled the rug out from under NNE yet. I am regretting adding that last tier of counties/zones northward in the watch though. Looks much less certain than just 12 hours ago. New SREF plumes are actually more impressive at several of the far interior forecast points thanks to that nearly stationary trough. I think you're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Exactly, although technichally it belongs in the upstate NY subforum, the weather in SLK is much more similar to Burlington and NNE than it is to Buffalo... -skisheep No worries as far as I can see. SLK is of course also within BTV's county watch area, so it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Don't shoot me for posting this but the RPM shows an eastern Mass snow bomb now. Seriously don't know whats happened to the RPM this year. Previous years its been pretty good. Suddenly even within 24hrs its terrible and flip/flops. No idea how to take this ;-) I'm still thinking 4-6" here in Londonderry,NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NWS Taunton's new snow maps look a bit high in the north from what I've seen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Post it? If it's cool for me to I will (Bob it's ok right?), but shows 6"+ PVD north... 10"+ all of EMass, SE NH, 12"+ in some parts... obviously the RPM is typically horrendously over done though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 New SREF plumes are actually more impressive at several of the far interior forecast points thanks to that nearly stationary trough. I think you're good. I was quite impressed with the plumes for the blizzard, Within 1/4" here of what i ended up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 BOS is in the watch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 BOS is in the watch now. Which makes little sense considering that they just lowered projected totals for the area on their latest snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NWS Taunton's new snow maps look a bit high in the north from what I've seen today. I think they are good now. NW of here will do surprisingly well as they will h old colder temps. I like my 7-10% chance of a foot...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Which makes little sense considering that they just lowered projected totals for the area on their latest snow map. They have 57% of 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 BOS is in the watch now. SREF plumes are actually clustered decently in the 5-10 zone. This forecast sucks. It's so close to being more as you can see how models really hang the good precip and dynamics right at the coast. I see both pros and cons..just a tough call right now. Starting to think Saturday Night potential may be fizzling here..and perhaps late Sunday gets better...but it's difficult to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I see on My Yahoo news page a new headline by Reuters: " New England Preparing for Massive Snowstorm". That headline was not there earlier today so you guys have it wrong, big, big incoming!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would guess some of those watches turn into advisories tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 New SREF plumes are actually more impressive at several of the far interior forecast points thanks to that nearly stationary trough. I think you're good.Almost half of the members try to get 1" liquid here from the inverted middle finger. I hate relying on that, but the EC has the signal too so hopefully it's legit. Rates won't be too heavy, but it's wintry appealing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Reflects the increased uncertainty that all these weird runs are conjuring up. The numbers on the map are mean values - but the range/variance of all possible results have increased. Therefore an expanded watch makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 They have 57% of 4 inches. Sure, but the odds are pretty good that this will translate to a winter weather advisory, not a winter storm warning, because it's likely that warning criteria won't be met according to their own current forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Almost half of the members try to get 1" liquid here from the inverted middle finger. I hate relying on that, but the EC has the signal too so hopefully it's legit. Rates won't be too heavy, but it's wintry appealing! Is this what the bitches call "mood snow?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sure, but the odds are pretty good that this will translate to a winter weather advisory, not a winter storm warning, because it's likely that warning criteria won't be met according to their own current forecast. Keep in mind that doesn't matter. A watch just translates to 50% confidence in reaching warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Is this what the bitches call "mood snow?"Mood snow is in late November early DecemberThis will be nuisance snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Keep in mind that doesn't matter. A watch just translates to 50% confidence in reaching warning criteria. Right. And I think, given the 57% of 4" as Jerry referenced, that the odds of 6" are subsequently less than 50% in their thinking. Hence why I find it a touch inconsistent, but I'm probably nit-picking at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 wow, ahaha, just saw the 18z NAM... My evil plan to make this a cirrus with dim sun showing is almost complete - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Right. And I think, given the 57% of 4" as Jerry referenced, that the odds of 6" are subsequently less than 50% in their thinking. Hence why I find it a touch inconsistent, but I'm probably nit-picking at this point. Well that's also a backyard kind of number on their probability maps. The watch/warning/advisory is for zone average. I realize Suffolk is a small county, but BOS is also right on the water and probably represents the smallest probability of 4 or more inches. The probability gradient is pretty sharp to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 SREF plumes tend to lag the previous NAM cycle. I would not get too hung up on them since they are likely to continue to edge SE and drier for 21z. But I expect to continue seeing the lingering light snows for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Even if BOS gets 6", wouldn't it be over more then 24 hours, and an advisory would suffice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If you like that kind of weather you can always come and spend some time out here. wow, ahaha, just saw the 18z NAM... My evil plan to make this a cirrus with dim sun showing is almost complete - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 wow, ahaha, just saw the 18z NAM... My evil plan to make this a cirrus with dim sun showing is almost complete - Gfs will give you that this run also. It's way south and east for the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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