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Feb 24th threat part deux


Typhoon Tip

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With dongs and snowstorms, those looking to measure by the yardstick often end up crying for one reason or another.

meh....biting the pillow, I have seen, really helps....certainly it does while the models are running

 

I predict a lot of biting of pillows, and cries of pleasure and pain over the next 2 weeks.  I also think yardsticks will be involved.

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Actually, Euro has been consistently meh for at least 4 cycles now. More East, develops too late as southern vort takes its time.

We just chose to favor the Nam / Uk / Cmc / Srefs because they showed what we wanted.

 

Euro has been slowly moving east with everything...its def been less wild than the others. That said, it has consistently shown the prolonged snows into Sunday night now for a few runs, which I think is the best hope for the CP. The more dynamic solutions of 2 days ago on the Euro are gone.

Not much has changed for me in all of this. I have kind of been feeling a low to middle end warning event for the interior hills for a day or two now. 12z runs didn't change that. The coastal areas though are where the forecast gets tougher.

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what do ya think for here Will?  No reason to cancel plans?  lol

 

Prob 2-4 there. There's a chance it could end up a little more...esp just to your north in NE CT elevations...but doesn't look like a big deal. Even spots that get 6"+ should be able to handle the gradual nature of the system.

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Seeing all these changing maps lately starting 4 days out is really, really bad for this industry. Seeing complaints all over the place.

Terrible. Whdh just made their 10-14" to 5-8" and they got like 100 comments on FB from people complaining. Maps should be coming out for the first time right now. I don't know why all of a sudden this year maps are made 4 days out, but it's making public perception of mets even worse then before.

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If people generally had the capacity think for themselves and not engulf themselves in tv and media reliance and hypnosis for a lifestyle,   there would be no complaints on any forecasts.

 

Does anyone here really care if so and so met comes out with an 8-16" forecast when it has a good chance of being wrong?

 

Blah,  OT I guess.    This looks like another pedestrian event, amout for days.

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Euro ensembles are pretty similar to the OP run...a little more liberal with the 0.75" qpf line though to the west.

It doesn't have the snow ending until early Monday morning in eastern areas. I think there could be a nice little period of snow late Sunday along the coast.

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Euro ensembles are pretty similar to the OP run...a little more liberal with the 0.75" qpf line though to the west.

It doesn't have the snow ending until early Monday morning in eastern areas. I think there could be a nice little period of snow late Sunday along the coast.

 

It's possible we wait until then, or Sunday Night if the euro has a clue.

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Seeing all these changing maps lately starting 4 days out is really, really bad for this industry. Seeing complaints all over the place.

Terrible. Whdh just made their 10-14" to 5-8" and they got like 100 comments on FB from people complaining. Maps should be coming out for the first time right now. I don't know why all of a sudden this year maps are made 4 days out, but it's making public perception of mets even worse then before.

tv met snow accum maps never should have been tossed out so far in advance..riding the coat tails of a historic storm to capitalize on ratings...the snow worried public without our interest/backgrounds has every right to be upset, borders on criminal

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It's possible we wait until then, or Sunday Night if the euro has a clue.

 

I could actually see this being in two seperate pulses almost. The initial stuff comes through and then we actually have a lull for a few hours and then more precip blossoms up as the upper level support finally comes in.

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Well yes, part of the problem is people are stupid and like to complain.

It's not stupidity.   Most people are quite intelligent,  but don't try very hard.    We have computers and machines to do everything for us,  after all.    Oh well.  ;)

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tv met snow accum maps never should have been tossed out so far in advance..riding the coat tails of a historic storm to capitalize on ratings...the snow worried public without our interest/backgrounds has every right to be upset, borders on criminal

Well yeah they shouldn't have run them in the first place, agreed. That's the main problem and it makes it look like things are changing all the time while if they posted the first map today, everything would be fine.
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I could actually see this being in two seperate pulses almost. The initial stuff comes through and then we actually have a lull for a few hours and then more precip blossoms up as the upper level support finally comes in.

 

My preliminary outlook mentioned maybe a burst of SN..perhaps borderline moderate for a few hours and then perhaps a lull with a light mix or rain, followed by a possibly burst of snow Sunday into Sunday evening. KBOS of course.

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very sarcastic on the cancel plans part lol

 

 

I had a huge physics exam yesterday and a chem exam today...I am sleeping all weekend to make up for the 10 hours total ive gotten all week

I remember those days...only time I've been more sleep deprived is when my boys were born 4 yrs ago....

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