S&P Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 LOL , CT BLIZZ GETTING PUNKED, WHERE'S ASHTON KUTCHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What a **** show that analysis was. Holy smokes People jumping the gun. Kind of a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 BOX map should be interesting as to how they will weigh the individual models in the forecast, don't envy them or any mets on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Jeez...Euro takes forever to shut off the snow over eastern half of SNE...you can see the potential it has trying to hang the steady snow back. The sfc reflection and baroclinic zone sort of outrun the best upper level support just barely...get that a bit more in synch and you will end up with a more wound up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GEM...it pops late so E MA still gets in on the snow eventually, but not the faster thump I was hoping to see. Its amazing how one little wobble in the Greak Lakes ULL really affects the ultimate outcome. Euro at least has mostly been making minor wobbles the last 3 runs while other guidance seems to be jumping around more. Meh, it's 8mb weaker roughly and dozens of miles east of the 0z run,which was weaker and less interesting than the previous run. It doesn't go to the extremes but it's moving steadily towards MEH. One more run in that direction and we're not looking at anything historic by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well it would get BOS closer to the record...maybe halve the margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 overall...it's "OK" it's not a crush job by any means. looks like the best snows would be ORH to BOS...maybe down into SE areas as well depending upon BL conditions. Highest precip definitely over E areas. best temps n and w. it's really late in getting everything together That's what concerns me. Otherwise many of us wasted QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 most of CT gets hosed...though the NE hills sneak in some snow toward the second half of the event. N RI does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Approximately 0.45" liquid falls in the form of snow for KTOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Jeez...Euro takes forever to shut off the snow over eastern half of SNE...you can see the potential it has trying to hang the steady snow back. The sfc reflection and baroclinic zone sort of outrun the best upper level support just barely...get that a bit more in synch and you will end up with a more wound up solution. Seems like a lot of that could be wasted with marginal temps and daytime insolation issues this time of year. I'm picturing a moderate wet thumping Sat. night followed by hours of weenie flakes which struggle to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Its probably a low end warning event for E MA...perhaps medium warning event for ORH hills. KTOL a lot of cold rain...then maybe advisory snows.What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Does the Euro look funny to anyway else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What? Feel the warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 most of CT gets hosed...though the NE hills sneak in some snow toward the second half of the event. N RI does well. That'l do it then. Dr No strikes again..for CT. Enjoy ENE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What? it is. the 00z was too. in fact, if you compare the two runs - verbatim - i think you get more snow on this run than on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 From a non-met, noob: The previous 10 posters regarding the Euro are Good, bad, meh, Good, bad ,meh, 1.25" EMa, Good, bad meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthieWX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just posted by Burbank... Interesting... Barry Burbank@BarryWBZ NO blockbuster this weekend. Latest guidance leaning to just a few inches of snow closer to Boston Sunday morning into part of the aft'n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Seems like a lot of that could be wasted with marginal temps and daytime insolation issues this time of year. I'm picturing a moderate wet thumping Sat. night followed by hours of weenie flakes which struggle to accumulate. Temp wise, We are in better shape then others, That's not my concern, Its the qpf cuts, This takes forever to get its act together, Its well east when it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I dunno but I think this solution sounds all f'd up and not really possible. We may have to toss this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Warm, weak, dry, and east. The superfecta. For the far westerners, looks like light mix to light snow. T -3" Roll the dice and try again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Let's see what it does with the next storm. That might be the bigger deal. Meh, it's 8mb weaker roughly and dozens of miles east of the 0z run,which was weaker and less interesting than the previous run. It doesn't go to the extremes but it's moving steadily towards MEH. One more run in that direction and we're not looking at anything historic by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It looked great at. 60 and then went pedestrian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Guys as we said every wobble has a big outcome to what may happen. Three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Folks should not be "disappointed" by the Euro solution. It really falls much in line with a clear tempo that was established upon the 00z cycle across the spectrum of model types... What folks should really be interested in is why is the NAM going so large. It could owe to a finite resolution with the local frontal topography and how well various jet mechanics interact - remember, December 2005 the NAM scored a huge coup on that system, by seeing a much more discrete version of the low level thermal gradient; the steepness of the 1000 to 800mb frontal slope helped to really focus/tuck UVM farther NW of all other guidance - and well ... heh, we know how that worked out. It "could" be doing something similar here in seeing something the others aren't. But all the while, and as we said at the thread outset ... the NAM is suspiciously over-baked with its QPF pending we figure out exactly what/why it is doing what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'd be willing to bet the euro ens come in with more overall qpf and more wrapped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I dunno but I think this solution sounds all f'd up and not really possible. We may have to toss this you may end up with sleet or maybe some ice depending on how the lowest levels behave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Meh, it's 8mb weaker roughly and dozens of miles east of the 0z run,which was weaker and less interesting than the previous run. It doesn't go to the extremes but it's moving steadily towards MEH. One more run in that direction and we're not looking at anything historic by any means. I'll stick with the Euro rather than go on a wild goose chase with other guidance...GFS/Ukie/GGEM all have made swings much mroe violent. If you are asking for perfection from NWP guidance at 3 days out, then you'll be sorely disappointed. I'm looking mostly at the upper air as very small changes can lead to larger changes in the surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just posted by Burbank... Interesting... Barry Burbank@BarryWBZ NO blockbuster this weekend. Latest guidance leaning to just a few inches of snow closer to Boston Sunday morning into part of the aft'n. . Knee jerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The GFS was nice for us west of ALB with next weeks low. Of course that has plenty of time to trend east for run after run. Warm, weak, dry, and east. The superfecta. For the far westerners, looks like light mix to light snow. T -3" Roll the dice and try again tomorrow. Warm, weak, dry, and east. The superfecta. For the far westerners, looks like light mix to light snow. T -3" Roll the dice and try again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Burbank going all op euro. Lets see what Harv says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.