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Feb 24th threat part deux


Typhoon Tip

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Taking in the Euro ... it appears all we've really accomplished over the last 2.5 days is removing the "epicosity" of the event in lieu of something more middling.  "Pedstrian" as Scott likes to call it. 

 

Which, you know ... it may not be so unreasonable when looking back on things.  It has been a very odd winter;  lots and lots of head games by model performance, and even one epic event that had zippo teleconnector suggestion leading up to it, underscoring the "head gaming" aspect.  

 

Although, the absence of negative or positive moving indexes may in fact be a signal in its self.   But ... that's another discussion.

 

Anyway, we can't be getting 20" snow falls with regular periodicity - that's just delusion and unrealistic.  I am sure at some point over the last 1,000,000 years of ice ages and non-ice ages for eastern North America's geological history, there was at least a winter where that happened.  But common sense and scientific wisdom, combined with our immediate three hundred years or so of annals do not lend to the frequency of such winters being very high - to put it lightly. 

 

We just went through the 6th most impressive event in SNE history not more than 2 weeks and few days ago - in terms of realistic expectation from those sources of information?  We are doing pretty gosh darn spectacularly!

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I am sure at some point over the last 1,000,000 years of ice ages and non-ice ages for eastern North America's geological history, there was at least a winter where that happened.  But common sense and scientific wisdom, combined with our immediate three hundred years or so of annals do not lend to the frequency of such winters being very high - to put it lightly. 

 

Have always wondered what the winters were like 20k years ago when we were under 1000 feet of glacier. 

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Taking in the Euro ... it appears all we've really accomplished over the last 2.5 days is removing the "epicosity" of the event in lieu of something more middling.  "Pedstrian" as Scott likes to call it. 

 

Which, you know ... it may not be so unreasonable when looking back on things.  It has been a very odd winter;  lots and lots of head games by model performance, and even one epic event that had zippo teleconnector suggestion leading up to it, underscoring the "head gaming" aspect.  

 

Although, the absence of negative or positive moving indexes may in fact be a signal in its self.   But ... that's another discussion.

 

Anyway, we can't be getting 20" snow falls with regular periodicity - that's just delusion and unrealistic.  I am sure at some point over the last 1,000,000 years of ice ages and non-ice ages for eastern North America's geological history, there was at least a winter where that happened.  But common sense and scientific wisdom, combined with our immediate three hundred years or so of annals do not lend to the frequency of such winters being very high - to put it lightly. 

 

We just went through the 6th most impressive event in SNE history not more than 2 weeks and few days ago - in terms of realistic expectation from those sources of information?  We are doing pretty gosh darn spectacularly!

So they thought entering the 1/20/78 period....

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My son was supposed to go to a indoor lacrosse game in Marlboro Saturday night, he and his teammates were going to play at the half. They canceled the game due to weather yesterday....LOL. I hope the TV stations learned their lesson regarding hyping up these events 3 days in advance and throwing 12 inch plus amounts up on the screen. Everyone is all worked up about a big storm that is going to turn out to be nothing more then a nuisance. If we only get 4 inches it will melt within a couple of days with the snow angle this time of year.

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My son was supposed to go to a indoor lacrosse game in Marlboro Saturday night, he and his teammates were going to play at the half. They canceled the game due to weather yesterday....LOL. I hope the TV stations learned their lesson regarding hyping up these events 3 days in advance and throwing 12 inch plus amounts up on the screen. Everyone is all worked up about a big storm that is going to turn out to be nothing more then a nuisance. If we only get 4 inches it will melt within a couple of days with the snow angle this time of year.

Partly agree. They should def go conservative unless they are really sure...

But Marlboro could still get a decent hit

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So much for euro consistency.

 

I've been saying that for two days... it hasn't had the locked-in look at all for this one. Hell, it could fluctuate further SE/weaker or even become amplified at 00z and nip eastern areas with a CCB at this point and I wouldn't be entirely shocked.

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Agreed, Marlboro could get a moderate hit but talk about jumping the gun for a cancellation....and I'm sure it was based on what they were hearing on TV and radio.

I've heard people talking all day about "this big snowstorm we're supposed to get this weekend," and wondering if this or that event should be canceled -- all over what appears to be maybe 6" of wet snow spread over 24 hours.

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