HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 i imagine you'll still get snow out of it. i don't think it's trended *that* badly. Latitude is in our favor here. The constant out this way is that there has never been a real worry about P-type from this. For me anything over a few inches is a big win since we've had little since the blizzard and could use a refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a nightmare being an on camera met and having to be the public face associated with actually forecasting this abomination! I'd feel ok going with 5-10" here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Fwiw, the Navgem looks like the GFS https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022212∏=prpτ=048&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a nightmare being an on camera met and having to be the public face associated with actually forecasting this abomination! Tell me about it. At least it's a weekend. A big positive bust on a weekday has a lot more consequences for the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Fwiw, the Navgem looks like the GFS https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022212∏=prpτ=048&set=All What the hell is the Navgem....what are we, forecasting with gps systems now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 if guidance were off by just 1-2C in the 950-850 layer...i'd probably get a foot of snow. 12z HiresNAM was a dumping over SE MA/ CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Enough with the passive aggressive trolling. We'll be happy to issue out more 5ppd if you want to test the rules. Oh ... have you been deleting them? I won't bother going back through pages for that entertainment if they are not there. Seeing the 06z and now the 12z GFS, I figured this thread would have hours of entertainment from people who think they are cleverly hiding their tormented frustration and anger motivate jabs, while in reality being wholly transparent ... Wah wah waaaaaah ...goes the sad trumpet. I was just reading the Model Diagnostic Discussion and they don't even mention the GFS - it's like, it's so bad, they don't even give it the respect of saying they are not including it. Then was like, 'wait a second', checked again, and it's the diagnostic discussion regarding the 00z initialization, apparently, prior to the 00z GFS run! Huh. It was published at 11:27am, too - So, NCEP's 12 hours and a whole model source belated on their analysis of model performance so who knows what the hell is going on... I suppose I could go study water vapor loops, and pour over Midwest/upstream AFD's to try and piece together some reason why the GFS is pretty much a complete miss rather abruptly, but you know ... the sun is so bright coming through the window - it's reminiscent of April. I realize it is only Feb 22nd, but I'm beleaguered and bored by this winter. I actually slipped into that mode prior to the blizzard, then, ironically ... we got a blizzard. Part of me wants a complete whiff with dim sun through high clouds. EDIT: Okay, they just updated it: "SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE" Not shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What the hell is the Navgem....what are we, forecasting with gps systems now?? It's the next iteration of the Nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What the hell is the Navgem....what are we, forecasting with gps systems now?? My security suite gave me an untrusted site warning when I clicked on the link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What the hell is the Navgem....what are we, forecasting with gps systems now?? Its the new name for the NOGAPS after its "upgrade" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I agree conservative is def the way to go in this. I mean, 6-10 is prob the highest I would go here...5-9 might be better or even 4-8 if the Euro comes in bit clunky. I do think the hills (north of the mid-level warming) will make out okay due to better boudnary layer conditions...so even more modest rates won't hurt as much. Lower down, I'd prob start with 3-6ish for the CP off the water and work from there. For BOS, tough call..prob 2-4? Though they could get clipped by that developing commahead which could give them several inches more than that. Yeah I'm not sure when BOS cools to freezing. Definite non-accumulation snow possibility. There's bust potential with every storm. The Ukie could happen and everyone would look silly. But I like your 2-4 call a lot. How does the Ukie even produce all that QPF. The QPF output often seems fishie. Is it legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ray ftw on his call of GGEM. So excluding uncle, we have globals vs mesos. Euro is both so it wins either way...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ray ftw on his call of GGEM. So excluding uncle, we have globals vs mesos. Euro is both so it wins either way...lol. Yea, I mean.....it wasn't AS bad as the GFS, but def. more in it's camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'd feel ok going with 5-10" here right now. I'll go 3-5, that way we can both verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So, NCEP's 12 hours and a whole model source belated on their analysis of model performance so who knows what the hell is going on... I suppose I could go study water vapor loops, and pour over Midwest/upstream AFD's to try and piece together some reason why the GFS is pretty much a complete miss rather abruptly, but you know ... the sun is so bright coming through the window - it's reminiscent of April. I realize it is only Feb 22nd, but I'm beleaguered and bored by this winter. I actually slipped into that mode prior to the blizzard, then, ironically ... we got a blizzard. Part of me wants a complete whiff with dim sun through high clouds. That solution could still be exciting for some as they are left to ponder why the models performed so poorly for days. I think it's been more interesting this year seeing all of the models struggle at one time or another because nothing has been a lock so hope springs eternal for whatever outcome one is hoping to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I just left for a few hours and came back to look at the GFS...what the hell happened? LOL. I'm switching majors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What the hell is the Navgem....what are we, forecasting with gps systems now?? You should be proud, sailor. Joint US/UK upgrade of the model......sure to provide even better entertainment for land based storms. We shall call it the Snowgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 A forecast for the Boston area would be 3-6 as of now. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Love how you guys posted my Letterman Performance. I think Jerry just saw it out of the blue! Here's what I said after - Love how you guys posted it!! Love you guys! And it was towed. Not stolen luckily. Hate NYC even More if it's possible hahaha. And I wasn't watching the Euro in Jammies Ekster, was hanging with Wynton Marsalis haha. But I was thinking about the Models the whole day. Sick me. I have 1000 texts and FB messages to go through, but what's the deal has this storm come back from the dead and I stay above the S/N battleground to grab 15"?? Johnny Depp IS a nice guy and is really easy to talk with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yea, I mean.....it wasn't AS bad as the GFS, but def. more in it's camp... They don't really say specifically what, if any, what the GFS initialization errors are, except to say that they were present; in both the NAM and GFS for that matter. I read somewhere that the GGEM's grid is in part populated by data provided by NOAA - if so, it is quite plausible that whatever it was/is that is pruning the GFS solution out in time, is also tainting that run. Just a suggestion - Either way, NCEP is recommending NON-GFS solutions at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 A president forecast for the Boston area would be 3-6 as of now. Agree? I would go with 5-10 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yeah I'm not sure when BOS cools to freezing. Definite non-accumulation snow possibility. There's bust potential with every storm. The Ukie could happen and everyone would look silly. But I like your 2-4 call a lot. How does the Ukie even produce all that QPF. The QPF output often seems fishie. Is it legit? The Ukie allows the southern vort to catch the sfc wave before it escapes east...so it captures it and rips a very potent CCB back over SNE. I don't believe the solution, but that is probably how it generates all the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Okay serious question real quick. I have a flight landing at BDL around 7:00 tomorrow night. Should I expect any issues with that? Thanks in advance. Nah, you are good I think. Delay at the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 They don't really say specifically what, if any, are the GFS initialization errors are, except to say that they were present; in both the NAM and GFS for that matter. I read somewhere that the GGEM's grid is in part populated by data provided by NOAA - if so, it is quite plausible that whatever it was/is that is pruning the GFS solution out in time, is also tainting that run. Just a suggestion - Either way, NCEP is recommending NON-GFS solutions at this point. what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The question is....will my WSW be downgraded to an advisory or nothing at all? Maybe the EC will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would go with 5-10 for us. I'd be thrilled but I think we need to score decently on either the appetizer tomorrow late day or the tail Sunday for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 OT but no Morch....looks like an interesting March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You guys have to realize that temps near freezing with fluffy ULL snow that the GFS is advertising on Sunday means little accumulations unless it comes down hard. Low water content snow is hard to stick unless it's cold or coming down hard this time of year. Those precip rates on the GFS weren't terribly exciting..maybe it sticks to existing snow or grass...something like that. I'm speaking for lower elevations of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 what do you mean? Yeah .... I figured the question would come up. I'm trying to find it, but it was something about the RAOB data being shared. I'm looking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nah, you are good I think. Delay at the worst. Thanks a ton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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