weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GEM will probably look like the GFS.... You see it yet? I very much doubt anything at 12z looks like gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So where did this cut the NAM in half myth come from, I have seen it in a moist environment get it right and fail miserably. I used to hear 2/3rd now its half/ Facts? Science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 you do realize...the euro gave you about 2...maybe 3" of snow at the front end...then many hours of non-snow (probably rain) then maybe 1" of snow on the backside, right? it's not as though it gave you 8" of snow. and. no one here said the GFS was right. stop trolling. Facts? What are those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 you do realize...the euro gave you about 2...maybe 3" of snow at the front end...then many hours of non-snow (probably rain) then maybe 1" of snow on the backside, right? it's not as though it gave you 8" of snow. and. no one here said the GFS was right. stop trolling. Yes euro was a high end advisory here. And B, I wasn't trolling. There's 2 mets who really like the GFS parameters . That's fact and not meant to troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I"m so glad I was set for doom and gloom from this. I'm downgrading to 3-6". Good luck Jerry and Phil. You may do better than many even if it's just hours of -SN with bursts of SN. Elevation and latitude ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 And RGEM suggests about an inch total as event is not done by end of the run. Looks like a few mm at best. I would guess it ends up around .75 for most. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS did ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This thread has gone into the crapper Shocking. This storm is a great argument for why TV mets should not be throwing numbers out 3-4 days in advance. I would not want to be making this forecast and the only thing the general public will remember is the high end maps that some were posting days ago. It would be humorous to see side by side comparisons of how many changes some of the snow fall maps have undergone since tuesday. I liked Tropos map that just had shaded areas of "best chance" for heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Shocking. This storm is a great argument for why TV mets should not be throwing numbers out 3-4 days in advance. I would not want to be making this forecast and the only thing the general public will remember is the high end maps that some were posting days ago. It would be humorous to see side by side comparisons of how many changes some of the snow fall maps have undergone since tuesday. I liked Tropos map that just had shaded areas of "best chance" for heavier snow. I would be interested in seeing a study of snowfall maps to viewership. the news today goes with the old saying, why let facts get in the way of a good story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would be interested in seeing a study of snowfall maps to viewership. the news today goes with the old saying, why let facts get in the way of a good story. Kind of like why let facts get in the way of weenie forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Enough with the passive aggressive trolling. We'll be happy to issue out more 5ppd if you want to test the rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Kind of like why let facts get in the way of weenie forecasts. Exactly, but its still entertaining just like the sensationalist news. I don't just come here for the weather, always a good laugh or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Despite the different shifts in modeling the ORH to Gardner corridor still looks like a nice place to be for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12Z RPM maintains that most of the good stuff happens in North and West NH. East SNH, all the way up to MHT barely see's anything, maybe 1-4". Big change from its 00z - 06z runs. From its 9Z runs its suddenly changes its tune. I wonder if the models are suddenly realizing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Despite the different shifts in modeling the ORH to Gardner corridor still looks like a nice place to be for this one. It usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ggem ~998 just S/E of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ggem ~998 just S/E of the BM Sounds like the RGEM location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ggem ~998 just S/E of the BM Weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GGEM doesn't look that good..not as bad as the GFS, but not as good as the RGEM...and def not as good as the monster Ukie solution, lol. It really only has advisory snows for the main portion of the stuff (between 0.25-0.50" of qpf) GGEM looks like it hangs back a lot of inverted trough stuff though on Sunday night so there would be additional accums from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm not worried about mixing in the ORH hills. As long as we get over a half inch of QPF, we will crack 6" IMHO...perhaps we will see the model guidance trend under that number, but until we do, I feel fine with those amounts here. Lower down may have problems if we are slow-burning our way to achieve qpf numbers. I went back and saw how the GFS has some lingering lift on Sunday drop a few more tenths... that helps. Both the GFS and Euro limp past half an inch liquid, though in differing fashions (I actually think the Euro might be underdone after the initial burst of precip). And the GEM is ok. I find the UK output highly suspicious, but it looks awesome. I wouldn't hope for much better than 10:1 and I would stay conservative with this storm... the upper support is really lacking. But your numbers looks reasonable for a MAX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Despite the different shifts in modeling the ORH to Gardner corridor still looks like a nice place to be for this one.Gosh I hope so...And regarding TV met maps, WHDH still had a huge either 10-14" or 10-16" swath this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Weak sauce. yeah. just not coming together very nicely. has had a disjointed look for a while really. almost feels like each set of runs has one or two products that are more emphatic on a good hit while the rest will sort of be meh. they just keep taking turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I went back and saw how the GFS has some lingering lift on Sunday drop a few more tenths... that helps. Both the GFS and Euro limp past half an inch liquid, though in differing fashions (I actually think the Euro might be underdone after the initial burst of precip). And the GEM is ok. I find the UK output highly suspicious, but it looks awesome. I wouldn't hope for much better than 10:1 and I would stay conservative with this storm... the upper support is really lacking. But your numbers looks reasonable for a MAX area. I agree conservative is def the way to go in this. I mean, 6-10 is prob the highest I would go here...5-9 might be better or even 4-8 if the Euro comes in bit clunky. I do think the hills (north of the mid-level warming) will make out okay due to better boudnary layer conditions...so even more modest rates won't hurt as much. Lower down, I'd prob start with 3-6ish for the CP off the water and work from there. For BOS, tough call..prob 2-4? Though they could get clipped by that developing commahead which could give them several inches more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Okay serious question real quick. I have a flight landing at BDL around 7:00 tomorrow night. Should I expect any issues with that? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a nightmare being an on camera met and having to be the public face associated with actually forecasting this abomination! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 yeah. just not coming together very nicely. has had a disjointed look for a while really. almost feels like each set of runs has one or two products that are more emphatic on a good hit while the rest will sort of be meh. they just keep taking turns. I'm hoping it doesn't get to the point that tomorrow morning Scott is using the infamous "strung out mess" to describe this. Definitely not liking the trend towards a weaker system going SE of BM. At least (out here) we'll see more than the cirrus we were smoking last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oswego Wx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Tell me about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm hoping it doesn't get to the point that tomorrow morning Scott is using the infamous "strung out mess" to describe this. Definitely not liking the trend towards a weaker system going SE of BM. At least (out here) we'll see more than the cirrus we were smoking last weekend. i imagine you'll still get snow out of it. i don't think it's trended *that* badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 if guidance were off by just 1-2C in the 950-850 layer...i'd probably get a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.