weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So so far...cmc/nam/ukmet vs gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The previous 6 hour total is likely even better. Yeah the amazing part is that is 6 hour qpf...not qpf for 12 hours between 48-60. It would probably give over 2" of qpf, lol. I don't believe the solution, but it lends more support to the idea that taking the middle ground is probably the way to go here. GFS looks kind of ridiculous actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Remember when the GFS had like .50 for the blizzard 24 hours in advance and everything else had 2-3 inches +? Lol what a pos what's the over/under for KTOL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS has lighter inv trouh snows all day. And Sunday night. Hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS has lighter inv trouh snows all day. lol, That's where all the snowfall for up here comes from the inv trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ugly GFS. Tries to make things respectable for us with lingering trough/trowal stuff on Sunday, but I'm not hanging my hat on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 And Sunday night. Hard to believe. Well you can thank the late s/w for that. I dunno, the trend is there...but the GFS seems suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS has lighter inv trouh snows all day. lol still snowing Sunday night on the GFS...I may slow-burn to 6" on this run anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 And RGEM suggests about an inch total as event is not done by end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 And RGEM suggests about an inch total as event is not done by end of the run. LOl GFS nickle and dime to a 8 inch snow. Nice snowy weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS is hideous... but let's remember the 00z Euro was pretty paltry with QPF. It looked awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lets not forget 0.2" QPF every 6hrs won't cut it for many guys. Meteorology, not weenieorlogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Because of a long period of dingleberries the gfs brings most folks 0.5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Can someone post the qPF numbers for last nights Euro? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lets not forget 0.2" QPF every 6hrs won't cut it for many guys. Meteorology, not weenieorlogy. if you believe the gFS yea its mood flakes not sticking to city streets but cmon man that solution reeks to me, its on its own once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Can someone post the qPF numbers for last nights Euro? TIA at BDL the euro was .72" - but quite literally over 48 hours. the "big" 6-hr periods were both under .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro/GFS blend would put Advisories in question out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a tough forecast for BOS and prob even tougher for SE MA...I think back around ORH, the forecast won't change a lot, unless we see that southern vortmax speed up enough to catch the sfc wave...then we could get 12"+ totals, but right now I see this as a medium warning 5-9/6-10" type event. For the coast and SE MA, its tough...could be 2-4" of slop, or they could rip off 8" in 8 hours to end it if we see that commahead manage to wrap up just in time. I think your totals are a little too high. All guidance has been steadily moving away from a high QPF event. GEFS and SREF should continue to come down. And the typical cut the NAM in half rule should apply. Plus there are mixing issues to consider as well as average or worse ratios. I don't think I would go above 6" right now anywhere... model guidance just does not support it. Of course the storm could overperform and there are always isolated higher totals, but I think in this case it would be prudent to start conservative. But I'm still HOPING for the 0z NAM to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 at BDL the euro was .72" - but quite literally over 48 hours. the "big" 6-hr periods were both under .25" and both of those periods, were not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Can someone post the qPF numbers for last nights Euro? TIA About 0.75" for ORH...almost an inch for BOS...there was a hole of less than 0.75" from near ORH back SW to HFD and CT river valley down SE to GON/WST. Ensembles were actually a bit more bullish than the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 at BDL the euro was .72" - but quite literally over 48 hours. the "big" 6-hr periods were both under .25" I though the Euro was ok for interior SE MA looking at the Wundermaps. Looks like a period of rain in there but had several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 if you believe the gFS yea its mood flakes not sticking to city streets but cmon man that solution reeks to me, its on its own once again. Right, just clarifying that 0.8" or whatever it spits out is hardly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I think your totals are a little too high. All guidance has been steadily moving away from a high QPF event. GEFS and SREF should continue to come down. And the typical cut the NAM in half rule should apply. Plus there are mixing issues to consider as well as average or worse ratios. I don't think I would go above 6" right now anywhere... model guidance just does not support it. Of course the storm could overperform and there are always isolated higher totals, but I think in this case it would be prudent to start conservative. But I'm still HOPING for the 0z NAM to verify. I'm not worried about mixing in the ORH hills. As long as we get over a half inch of QPF, we will crack 6" IMHO...perhaps we will see the model guidance trend under that number, but until we do, I feel fine with those amounts here. Lower down may have problems if we are slow-burning our way to achieve qpf numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This will be one of those times that the EURO doesn't go the way of the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I"m so glad I was set for doom and gloom from this. I'm downgrading to 3-6". Good luck Jerry and Phil. The weenie trough gave you some luv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 One of the last 2 GFS remaining holdouts has reappeared . To be far though he has been at Mt Wash all week and missed most of the disco on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 One of the last 2 GFS remaining holdouts has reappeared . To be far though he has been at Mt Wash all week and missed most of the disco on that Was aware of the discussion. If I were to go 100% Euro I'd say 3-6 would be pushing it for areas along the Mass border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GEM will probably look like the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Thanks for the numbers guys, much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 One of the last 2 GFS remaining holdouts has reappeared . To be far though he has been at Mt Wash all week and missed most of the disco on that you do realize...the euro gave you about 2...maybe 3" of snow at the front end...then many hours of non-snow (probably rain) then maybe 1" of snow on the backside, right? it's not as though it gave you 8" of snow. and. no one here said the GFS was right. stop trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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