CTWeatherFreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Your about 24 hrs off Geez! Only trust within 12 hrs? LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 When there's a block they don't. We've been saying that for a few days. There wasn't room for this to cone north with a block in place like it islol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well, I said "all of the big ones" do....this is no longer a big event. Had the surface reflection not outran the vortmax, then the deformmation band would have developed nw of where it was modeled, in all likelihood. I see what you did there! But yes, I know what you mean. At this point I'm hoping for 4", which I'd be happy with at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a tough forecast for BOS and prob even tougher for SE MA...I think back around ORH, the forecast won't change a lot, unless we see that southern vortmax speed up enough to catch the sfc wave...then we could get 12"+ totals, but right now I see this as a medium warning 5-9/6-10" type event. For the coast and SE MA, its tough...could be 2-4" of slop, or they could rip off 8" in 8 hours to end it if we see that commahead manage to wrap up just in time. yeah i think you'll make out fine either way. i more meh than excited to watch this unfold because i think the real meat of the storm ends up over the fish but it's definitely close. BOS area is very tricky this time of year. if they get a good initial thump of snow, they could wetbulb and dynamically cool their way to 32F and never recover...or just rot at 36F with -rn until flipping late game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 lol You would think this is 2010 style blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 yeah i think you'll make out fine either way. i more meh than excited to watch this unfold because i think the real meat of the storm ends up over the fish but it's definitely close. BOS area is very tricky this time of year. if they get a good initial thump of snow, they could wetbulb and dynamically cool their way to 32F and never recover...or just rot at 36F with -rn until flipping late game. That's what worries me. I'm still a little bearish as I don't see models really hammering this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Geez! Only trust within 12 hrs? LOL... That was about the time frame it latched on to the last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Facts: It is SE, it is colder, it is quick and QPF dropped in response to those facts. Bring back the board of old. I love it, one big blizzard and now that is the norm, imagine folks in SNE complaining about this run if it were Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro had .6 to .7 up here, increased QPF actually, so I'll wait until 12Z Euro to bridge jump. That would be nice, but certainly not a blockbuster by any stretch -- especially with marginal temps at my location near the coast, where I could very well waste a chunk of the precip on rain without strong dynamics. Either way I don't plan to do any jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I still think I am in the game for a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 That's what worries me. I'm still a little bearish as I don't see models really hammering this area. yeah same. the runs from 36+ hours ago that had the big qpf bombs along E shores were clearly what we needed. the nam, despite the big qpf #s is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 just looking at 12z Nam... definite trend towards Euro eMA does ok because shortwave is more juiced to start, but the synoptics of the southern vorticity arriving too late are there and we miss out on the best this storm has to offer the silver lining is that everything is a bit colder... for Boston, column stays < 0c throughout, and BL is also a bit colder so most of that 1" could be snow that sticks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z RGEM. Takes low SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 the silver lining is that everything is a bit colder... for Boston, column stays < 0c throughout, and BL is also a bit colder so most of that 1" could be snow that sticks... NWS saying up to one inch QPF here. Snow tomorrow and tomorrow night, maybe mixed with rain tomorrow night. That doesn't sound bad. Snowboarding Monday. HHHmmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I still think I am in the game for a nice hit Agree. Hoping we can eek out 6" up this way. Will be nice none the less to add to the base (albeit small) of concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 A question for the nh people , I'm headed to the Portsmouth and kittery area to go hiking on Saturday what's the snow depth on the coast? Should I bring the snowshoes? I've looked a few sites for snow depth but the measurments are all over the place. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro and nam are not dissimilar at this point. Both are signaling a garden variety event that rings the heaviest snows in the 495/128 belt with the coast a question mark that ould go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NWS saying up to one inch QPF here. Snow tomorrow and tomorrow night, maybe mixed with rain tomorrow night. That doesn't sound bad. Snowboarding Monday. HHHmmmmmmm. Actually, maybe snowboard Sunday afternoon too. All the people up here from tri-state area (thanks for supporting us!) will be gone. Shrd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro and nam are not dissimilar at this point. Both are signaling a garden variety event that rings the heaviest snows in the 495/128 belt with the coast a question mark that ould go either way. Actually, the NAM jacked just south of the city and with a conservative algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 RGEM is sirprisingly cold right to the coast. Has almost all snow for BOS...kind of weird even though the vortmax is still lagging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 maybe a 2/28/05-3/1/05 en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM clown map. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 RGEM a nice snow here. My goal has been to get halfway to the BOS monthly record with this event and that seems doable as BOS will need about 5 inches. The guidance suggests we have a shot before 3/1 after this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 yeah same. the runs from 36+ hours ago that had the big qpf bombs along E shores were clearly what we needed. the nam, despite the big qpf #s is not good. I am impressed in my back yard, some sick cold unstable soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM clown map. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BOX I would hit that day and night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Isn't that the one that rained all day and then flipped too blizzard dripping maybe 6 at BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 lol. works for me. nothing like getting buried when even 6 hrs out it looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 maybe a 2/28/05-3/1/05 en route. 8 with a .53 w/e, yes that would work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Isn't that the one that rained all day and then flipped too blizzard dripping maybe 6 at BOS? It was a paste bomb for you and I, SE MA was supposed to get rain and got 12-14" of S+ blue bomb snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Isn't that the one that rained all day and then flipped too blizzard dripping maybe 6 at BOS? No, that was 3/8/05. 2/28/05-3/1/05 was the storm where the Cape/SE MA was suppose to have ptype issues and the jackpot would be NW...instead they got 12-14" of snow in 5 hours from obscene rates...almost a covnective QPF blob. It robbed us back this way of moisture and we finished with around 7" despite forecasts of 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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