CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Very difficult to follow. ESP when mets offer conflicting ideas Well it's also wise not to get picky with he NAM, because it is the NAM. It did cut QPF and trend east which makes things a little more dicey for borderline areas that need to big VVs to help cool the column, but yet it did cool a bit aloft. I'm ok with it for my area and it gave you a good amount of snow...but I wouldn't read into the QPF very heavily right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 this is morphing into a fairly short event. maybe eastern areas hang on to precip a bit longer but i don't know. Yeah more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Very difficult to follow. ESP when mets offer conflicting ideas Sorry, I might have caused some confusion I guess. I still don't know why I was told that it didn't look good for you, because I thought it looked like you got at least 6"...but I guess listen to the mets. They know more than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The sfc wave out running the main southern vortmax makes this a less threatening event for 12"+ totals. Its still going to be a decent warning event prob for ORH up to Ray's area in NE MA...perhaps near BOSif BL issues are overcome fairly early in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well that was fun while it lasted. Thank you NAM. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If the NAM is right, Kevin is dryslotted after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 funny how folks live and die with every model run.... It's a concerted trend towards the best model, which has a relatively meager solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Facts: It is SE, it is colder, it is quick and QPF dropped in response to those facts. Bring back the board of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 DDH gets screwed alot in various ways. But are you still along the spine of the Greens at higher elevation? You always cleaned up there. Yes, but over the last N years, all forecasts that show good storms for my area (western New England) change away.. yet nothing ever changes towards us. We haven't had a real storm here since.. I can't remember when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 this is morphing into a fairly short event. maybe eastern areas hang on to precip a bit longer but i don't know. Moves E pretty quickly once it winds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 funny how folks live and die with every model run.... I died a long time ago..... Although, the 00z NAM woke me up temporarily. This is going to be totally meh in GC when all is said and done I think. Perhaps for others sitting on their snow machines as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I died a long time ago..... Although, the 00z NAM woke me up temporarily. This is going to be totally meh in GC when all is said and done I think. Perhaps for others sitting on their snow machines as well. Hopefully we make low end warning. 6 or 8 hours of moderate snow may not do it if the storm is a quick mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hopefully we make low end warning. 6 or 8 hours of moderate snow may not do it if the storm is a quick mover. Based on this I'd say no. Of course, 12 hours ago this had us getting 2" of w.e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So much for the "they always end up trending north" theory. Looking more and more like a nuisance event at best up here.When there's a block they don't. We've been saying that for a few days. There wasn't room for this to cone north with a block in place like it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If the NAM is right, Kevin is dryslotted after 06z. yeah. i actually think the euro was somewhat similar - maybe a bit slower. it's a quick hitter. the comma head does start to wrap some atlantic moisture back in over central and eastern MA by morning which could linger for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 yeah. i actually think the euro was somewhat similar - maybe a bit slower. it's a quick hitter. the comma head does start to wrap some atlantic moisture back in over central and eastern MA by morning which could linger for a while What a tough forecast for BOS and prob even tougher for SE MA...I think back around ORH, the forecast won't change a lot, unless we see that southern vortmax speed up enough to catch the sfc wave...then we could get 12"+ totals, but right now I see this as a medium warning 5-9/6-10" type event. For the coast and SE MA, its tough...could be 2-4" of slop, or they could rip off 8" in 8 hours to end it if we see that commahead manage to wrap up just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Maybe the NAM was somewhat believable over there, but it was obviously on crack out here so I didn't get any hopes up. My over/under is 3 inches. If I get 3 inches I declare victory. Based on this I'd say no. Of course, 12 hours ago this had us getting 2" of w.e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Isnt this the time frame, within about 36 hrs, that the NAM enters its wheelhouse (if we dare concede it even has one!) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If the NAM is right, there is deformation band potential in ern and se ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So much for the "they always end up trending north" theory. Looking more and more like a nuisance event at best up here. Not going to bridge jump off the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Isnt this the time frame, within about 36 hrs, that the NAM enters its wheelhouse (if we dare concede it even has one!) ? Your about 24 hrs off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Not going to bridge jump off the Nam Seems to be a building overall consensus toward something more "pedestrian/meh" (man, I hate those terms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 lol at the NAM. Went from 1.1" here at 00z to .6" at 6Z to .3" at 12z here. Great model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a tough forecast for BOS and prob even tougher for SE MA...I think back around ORH, the forecast won't change a lot, unless we see that southern vortmax speed up enough to catch the sfc wave...then we could get 12"+ totals, but right now I see this as a medium warning 5-9/6-10" type event. For the coast and SE MA, its tough...could be 2-4" of slop, or they could rip off 8" in 8 hours to end it if we see that commahead manage to wrap up just in time. Nowcast event! I thought i see 6+ two days ago, 2 inches yesterday, now not really sure! I think I will just sit back, watch/listen to banter and enjoy whatever I get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So much for the "they always end up trending north" theory. Looking more and more like a nuisance event at best up here.Well, I said "all of the big ones" do....this is no longer a big event.Had the surface reflection not outran the vortmax, then the deformmation band would have developed nw of where it was modeled, in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Seems to be a building overall consensus toward something more "pedestrian/meh" (man, I hate those terms). Euro had .6 to .7 up here, increased QPF actually, so I'll wait until 12Z Euro to bridge jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Seems to be a building overall consensus toward something more "pedestrian/meh" (man, I hate those terms). If the euro bails then that's another thing, As much as everyone poo pood last nights 0z run, It was better here then 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Love how you guys posted it!! Love you guys! And it was towed. Not stolen luckily. Hate NYC even More if it's possible hahaha. And I wasn't watching the Euro in Jammies Ekster, was hanging with Wynton Marsalis haha. But I was thinking about the Models the whole day. Sick me. I have 1000 texts and FB messages to go through, but what's the deal has this storm come back from the dead and I stay above the S/N battleground to grab 15"?? Johnny Depp IS a nice guy and is really easy to talk with. pretty cool bro, me and the wifey watched last night, congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would be surprised to see the watches converted to warnings for Eastern Hampshire and Hampden Counties. Seems like advisories are much more in line with modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro had .6 to .7 up here, increased QPF actually, so I'll wait until 12Z Euro to bridge jump. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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