joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Compare the 84h 12z vs tonight's 72h. Lol. I'm betting that blip isn't done yet. Yeah exactly... I guess the QPF is tighter now, but it's over the ocean, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looked a little better then 12z? I only have shaded color no qpf numbersSimilar to 12z for here. Maybe a hair better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 850 0c line never gets past about Plymouth at 57h problem with this run (same with 12z and last night's 0z) is kinda crappy qpf... dynamics never really get going until moves east... decent CCB barely clips Cape Cod, vs. NAM/GFS/RGEM that nail eMA with the CCB Euro has been consistent with this meh qpf, and 18Z NAM similarly developed the storm too late. On the other hand, NAM has had the CCB crush (excluding 18z) for 3 runs, and GFS and RGEM support NAM's earlier development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 problem with this run (same with 12z and last night's 0z) is kinda crappy qpf... dynamics never really get going until moves east... Just seems like a really dry and odd run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Love how you guys posted it!! Love you guys! And it was towed. Not stolen luckily. Hate NYC even More if it's possible hahaha. And I wasn't watching the Euro in Jammies Ekster, was hanging with Wynton Marsalis haha. But I was thinking about the Models the whole day. Sick me. I have 1000 texts and FB messages to go through, but what's the deal has this storm come back from the dead and I stay above the S/N battleground to grab 15"?? Johnny Depp IS a nice guy and is really easy to talk with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Does euro show big storm for u guys day 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Does euro show big storm for u guys day 8? hiya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Does euro show big storm for u guys day 8? Naturally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Love how you guys posted it!! Love you guys! And it was towed. Not stolen luckily. Hate NYC even More if it's possible hahaha. And I wasn't watching the Euro in Jammies Ekster, was hanging with Wynton Marsalis haha. But I was thinking about the Models the whole day. Sick me. I have 1000 texts and FB messages to go through, but what's the deal has this storm come back from the dead and I stay above the S/N battleground to grab 15"?? Johnny Depp IS a nice guy and is really easy to talk with. That was so cool to watch, you did a great job! Good to hear that your car wasn't stolen at least, I agree that NYC is awful, lol. 0c line looks like it stays near or just south of Cumberland, so it should be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 850 0c line never gets past about Plymouth at 57h problem with this run (same with 12z and last night's 0z) is kinda crappy qpf... dynamics never really get going until moves east... decent CCB barely clips Cape Cod, vs. NAM/GFS/RGEM that nail eMA with the CCB Euro has been consistent with this meh qpf, and 18Z NAM similarly developed the storm too late. On the other hand, NAM has had the CCB crush (excluding 18z) for 3 runs, and GFS and RGEM support NAM's earlier development. What I don't like is the multi run trend away from a rather large moisture laiden event to something more meh in sne potentially. The panel by panel comparisons this run to last run show it pretty clearly. Doesn't mean much yet at this range other than as ncep noted there seems to be a back and forth run to run of closer vs farther away. We shall see, beats tracking January temperature departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 big expansion of 1" line on 3z srefs and colder... 850 0C never makes it much beyond CT/MA border must be seeing some more amped solutions to produce colder / more qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 6z Nam continues slightly colder and decent eMA hit, qpf max shifted slightly south... but so close to something much bigger, the southern vorticity energy catches up to the shortwave just a touch too late to get the best CCB action into eMA (as happens in earlier 0z and 12z runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Pretty clear signal from all the guidance tonight for some trowal development. This probably explains the NW extent of the precip. These are the 700 mb theta-e analyses from the (clockwise from the top left) Euro, GFS, GEM, and NAM. The white lines (pardon the poor paint job) roughly marks the theta-e ridge (remember that theta increases with height). The Euro is the farthest south with the feature, while the NAM appears to be the most robust (GEM is pretty sharp as well). Not the most robust signal I've ever seen, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Fun forecast. I'll play a high probability of low-end warning out here. I don't expect heft qpf to make it out this way, and it's going to be on the wetter side impacting accumulation. Certainly room to shift upward, but I'm fairly confident that 6-8" is a reasonable starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I like. StormTotalSnowFcst.png I had a feeling you might. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Garett & my thoughts on snow accumulation on the storm that begins late Saturday and continues into midday Sunday...stay with NBC Connecticut on-air and on-line for updates... Getting pumped up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro looked awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Love the colder trends overnight and into today so far. Those watches will almost assuredly have to be expanded south..The block FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 RGEM really snows hard surprisingly from Kevin to mpm to will to ray to me and down to the canal at 45-48 hours. Yeah RGEM looks great. Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Per Channel 40. Can't see that 22 has issued one, or if they did, they're hiding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Haha, I saw the BOX warning map and figured one of the first things I'd read this morning was from a certain CT poster about how those watches will be expanded south. Sure enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sref's are a paster..Get your power outage supplies in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Haha, I saw the BOX warning map and figured one of the first things I'd read this morning was from a certain CT poster about how those watches will be expanded south. Sure enough Read the AFD and you'll see why they'll do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 In addition to the map Eric posted, here are the other area NWS maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Read the AFD and you'll see why they'll do it It could go either way. Could be fun or a real toaster bath while ORH rips paste. Tough call. Luckily no one controls the weather so it doesn't matter what anyone forecasts. I'd approach that very cautiously to avoid a total melt down if it doesn't work out to 8+, but we know that's not your style. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sref's are a paster..Get your power outage supplies in check They'll be scattered and minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Riding the nam.......looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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