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Feb 24th threat part deux


Typhoon Tip

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850 0c line never gets past about Plymouth at 57h

 

problem with this run (same with 12z and last night's 0z) is kinda crappy qpf... dynamics never really get going until moves east... decent CCB barely clips Cape Cod, vs. NAM/GFS/RGEM that nail eMA with the CCB

 

Euro has been consistent with this meh qpf, and 18Z NAM similarly developed the storm too late.

 

On the other hand, NAM has had the CCB crush (excluding 18z) for 3 runs, and GFS and RGEM support NAM's earlier development.

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Love how you guys posted it!! Love you guys!

And it was towed. Not stolen luckily. Hate NYC even More if it's possible hahaha.

And I wasn't watching the Euro in Jammies Ekster, was hanging with Wynton Marsalis haha. But I was thinking about the Models the whole day. Sick me. I have 1000 texts and FB messages to go through, but what's the deal has this storm come back from the dead and I stay above the S/N battleground to grab 15"??

Johnny Depp IS a nice guy and is really easy to talk with.

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Love how you guys posted it!! Love you guys! And it was towed. Not stolen luckily. Hate NYC even More if it's possible hahaha. And I wasn't watching the Euro in Jammies Ekster, was hanging with Wynton Marsalis haha. But I was thinking about the Models the whole day. Sick me. I have 1000 texts and FB messages to go through, but what's the deal has this storm come back from the dead and I stay above the S/N battleground to grab 15"?? Johnny Depp IS a nice guy and is really easy to talk with.

 

That was so cool to watch, you did a great job!  Good to hear that your car wasn't stolen at least, I agree that NYC is awful, lol. 

 

0c line looks like it stays near or just south of Cumberland, so it should be a close call. 

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850 0c line never gets past about Plymouth at 57h

problem with this run (same with 12z and last night's 0z) is kinda crappy qpf... dynamics never really get going until moves east... decent CCB barely clips Cape Cod, vs. NAM/GFS/RGEM that nail eMA with the CCB

Euro has been consistent with this meh qpf, and 18Z NAM similarly developed the storm too late.

On the other hand, NAM has had the CCB crush (excluding 18z) for 3 runs, and GFS and RGEM support NAM's earlier development.

What I don't like is the multi run trend away from a rather large moisture laiden event to something more meh in sne potentially. The panel by panel comparisons this run to last run show it pretty clearly. Doesn't mean much yet at this range other than as ncep noted there seems to be a back and forth run to run of closer vs farther away.

We shall see, beats tracking January temperature departures

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6z Nam continues slightly colder and decent eMA hit, qpf max shifted slightly south... but so close to something much bigger, the southern vorticity energy catches up to the shortwave just a touch too late to get the best CCB action into eMA (as happens in earlier 0z and 12z runs)

 

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Pretty clear signal from all the guidance tonight for some trowal development. This probably explains the NW extent of the precip.

 

These are the 700 mb theta-e analyses from the (clockwise from the top left) Euro, GFS, GEM, and NAM. The white lines (pardon the poor paint job) roughly marks the theta-e ridge (remember that theta increases with height). The Euro is the farthest south with the feature, while the NAM appears to be the most robust (GEM is pretty sharp as well). Not the most robust signal I've ever seen, but something to keep an eye on.

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Read the AFD and you'll see why they'll do it

It could go either way. Could be fun or a real toaster bath while ORH rips paste.

Tough call. Luckily no one controls the weather so it doesn't matter what anyone forecasts. I'd approach that very cautiously to avoid a total melt down if it doesn't work out to 8+, but we know that's not your style. Go big or go home.

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