Hazey Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Come on Nam. Please have a clue for once. Blocking must be progged a tad weaker as it keeps the system moving slight north of ENE vs due East of earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Freaking sickening...why do you people even look at the NAM? All you do is discount it. Why do you people even bother to look at it if you think it sucks so much? People seems to scapegoat the NAM, and much of it is not substantiated very well. The NAM's not helping it's own cause, because when it blows it, the error seems to stick out pretty brightly - - admittedly. But over the long haul, ...well, it's like what Phill says and he's absolutely right - one has to know what situation to use which model for. When the pattern has a tight thermal gradient and steep frontal slopes, with jet max riding over in nexus, the NAM will perform better. It also has a secret better verification in the summer with convective initiation that beats all others, but that's of course not applicable here. Phil doesn't like the NAM for pretty much any scenario - which is funny/ironic. Anyway, there's all that ... and, some hypocrisy is not alien to this forum. I think though there is ligit marveling there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 RGEM really snows hard surprisingly from Kevin to mpm to will to ray to me and down to the canal at 45-48 hours. Box was really ballsy w/snowtotals given the thinking of the local met community. they used as an argument the weak nature of the canadian model so if this is now becoming more aligned with a colder and stronger solution, that graphic may change in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 That trough in the west is a pretty big factor too. That's all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS is def a bit faster with souther vort energy...this run is better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 People seems to scapegoat the NAM, and much of it is not substantiated very well. The NAM's not helping it's own cause, because when it blows it, the error seems to stick out pretty brightly - - admittedly. But over the long haul, ...well, it's like what Phill says and he's absolutely right - one has to know what situation to use which model for. When the pattern has a tight thermal gradient and steep frontal slopes, with jet max riding over in nexus, the NAM will perform better. It also has a secret better verification in the summer with convective initiation that beats all others, but that's of course not applicable here. Phil doesn't like the NAM for pretty much any scenario - which is funny/ironic. Anyway, there's all that ... and, some hypocrisy is not alien to this forum. I think though there is ligit marveling there. Exactly!!! People tend to look at how one model performed during one event and compare that to the next event but you can't do that. People tend to look at models in the whole but you have to look at models in pieces. You have to know and look at which models is handling what the best. This is where blending comes from. Like stated, this is a thermal gradient setup, and of all the models, which will handle this the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The models are going to have a difficult time with the southern energy, in terms of strength and speed b/c the southern stream will be highly active with convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Gfs has colder mid levels ths run. It's ok but not w blockbuster. Nevertheless it ends up dropping close to sn inch in alot of the region. Euro the arbiter as usual later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 No way to fix the BL though with this arrangement, for most,,,,no one escapes this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charleskoz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I said before the last storm that NAM was my favorite model and it came pretty close to being accurate, even though a lot of folks doubted it. That said, the 00z run would put 2' on my doorstep, which never happens, so I'm skeptical. The GFS is pretty much a miss wide right, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS is pretty decent...esp for the pike region north. It does have the nice little CCB as it exits stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Uncles a snow bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Getting a clue about the mid levels which is nice. It was way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS is pretty decent...esp for the pike region north. It does have the nice little CCB as it exits stage right.That 850 reaction seems much more normal to that setup to me, initial push crashes back, no insane north push. I would think things are honing in for a general 4-16 from C Ct to NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Getting a clue about the mid levels which is nice. It was way too warm.Lol we posted the same thing can I have your tag for a minute. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 WTF? Crazy uncle goes due east from ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 seems like the 00z suite is trying to tell us something. Uncles a snow bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lol we posted the same thing can I have your tag for a minute. LOL Part of it is dynamics, but it's finally making me feel better about questioning it...it looked so bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 WTF? Crazy uncle goes due east from ACY. It does climb it north some between 60/72...its pretty cold. A good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 "One of the toughest forecasting situations I've ever been in"- Harvey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It does climb it north some between 60/72...its pretty cold. A good hit. Yeah it does, but I did a double take when I saw the hr 60 panel..lol. Looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Talk about living on the edge of an isothermal profile from 800mb downward....here is the 54h sounding at ORH as the 0C line gets close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 "One of the toughest forecasting situations I've ever been in"- Harvey No doubt, but we have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would hate to be a ct met for this...goodness. could be 3" or 12" in some spots. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 "One of the toughest forecasting situations I've ever been in"- Harvey Tell that to MountainMet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 WTF? Crazy uncle goes due east from ACY. Well it's not going to go N into a -NAO train-wreck ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 "One of the toughest forecasting situations I've ever been in"- HarveyMan I am beating these guys to their punch lines, see my post to Chris, lol. If Harvey says that man what a bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM over 2" qpf for most of MASS, GFS less than 1".. what were Euro's totals? looked closer to GFS correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Tell that to MountainMet. LOL. But people are looking for humidity forecasts and the amount of clouds, so its NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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