Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So is he saying even with a warmer solution half is still snow? Basically, there is a strong correlation between a weaker storm - warmer temps - less QPF - more taint. On the flip side, there is a strong correlation between a stronger storm - colder temps because of better dynamics - more QPF - less taint. Simply put, strong is good for both temps and precip amounts. The odds of a washout are low, as are the odds of just a very light snowfall with no change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So is he saying even with a warmer solution half is still snow? He means that major system and a rainer are mutually exclusive....a more potent system will be accompanie dby the dynamics necessary to cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This is a textbook paste bomb for the hills of NW and NE CT, possibly including KTOL. I'll put out a map after the Euro comes out, to see if it ticks one way or another...low track is good, although the wind direction and high placement aren't great, just shave 1-2F off of the GFS/Euro and there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Maybe but we don't have enough of a track record with the "improved" GGEM, will be interested to see how the Euro moved in 20 minutes. yeah i hear ya. but i have to assume that the new model was run parallel with the old one for months and months before they made it operational. we here may not yet be familiar with any type of bias it now has, but to say we can't trust it because it's new is a tough one. if it displayed that erroneous of a temp bias or whatnot (whatever the issue may be), they would have fixed it. now...the solution could be total garbage...but that's another point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My car got either towed or stolen in NYC. And I have the biggest gig of my life in 1 hour. David Letterman with Paul Shaffer. If I couldn't hate this city anymore........... This storm better be good. Really Fricken good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Maybe but we don't have enough of a track record with the "improved" GGEM, will be interested to see how the Euro moved in 20 minutes. Hasn't the ggem always had a warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This is a textbook paste bomb for the hills of NW and NE CT, possibly including KTOL. I'll put out a map after the Euro comes out, to see if it ticks one way or another...low track is good, although the wind direction and high placement aren't great, just shave 1-2F off of the GFS/Euro and there you go.Well the NE hills of CT and Tolland aren't mutually exclusive lol. They're one and the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My car got either towed or stolen in NYC. And I have the biggest gig of my life in 1 hour. David Letterman with Paul Shaffer. If I couldn't hate this city anymore........... This storm better be good. Really Fricken good.Just put on those shades, jump up on a park bench and start ripping out some tunes on the accordion . Numerous people will just give you their cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 yeah i hear ya. but i have to assume that the new model was run parallel with the old one for months and months before they made it operational. we here may not yet be familiar with any type of bias it now has, but to say we can't trust it because it's new is a tough one. if it displayed that erroneous of a temp bias or whatnot (whatever the issue may be), they would have fixed it. now...the solution could be total garbage...but that's another point. Oh I know, nothing is tossed. But like we all agreed on earlier, the SREF's had to be run parallel too and we all know how that turned out the first month or two of winter Euro/GFS is still the best combination in terms of a blend long as they're similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ggem rain snow line is def tossed...far far away. Euro gfs 70/30 blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 the ggem is torched. kisses S VT with the 0C 850 line. something is off with this system. The main southern stream s/w is near Texas/New Mexico as light precip is breaking out in ENY and CT on Sat morning. The upper support is lacking for a coastal low until very late. That gives low-mid levels time to warm and shunts the stj moisture east and mostly offshore. I think elevated, interior, eastern sections can recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 ...COASTAL STORM INTENSIFYING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE COMPARED TO THE GFS/UKMET/CMC/ECMWF...THE 12Z NAM IS THE QUICKEST TO STREAK A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY AND THEN IS THE FASTEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AMPLIFYING THE ENERGY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS RESULTS IN THE NAM BEING A FAST/DEEP OUTLIER WITH DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING IT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE 12Z CMC IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH AMPLIFYING THE ENERGY ALOFT AND THEREFORE A WEAK OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No play by play on the Euro? I'm disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No play by play on the Euro? I'm disappointed Its only out to 48, give it another couple minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No play by play on the Euro? I'm disappointed Yeah, usually by 1:02 there have already been numerous cryptic "Euro less amped," "Euro east"-type posts. Come on, people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks identical to nam at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks identical to nam at 60 hours. I wouldnt say identical...but def more NAM flavor than GFS at 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is gonna be pretty good for you guys with track, qpf questionable. There are certain wins and losses to take away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Maybe after 12z it blows up, but pedestrian until. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I wouldnt say identical...but def more NAM flavor than GFS at 60h. Euro is meh. And you wonder why people get confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is meh. Strenght wise or p-type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Colder, gonna be a great run...edit...kind of pedestrian but cold through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's mild too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Noone has any idea what it looks like based in the last 6 posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah it takes a while to get going. It looked pretty good at 60h, but 66h is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Colder, gonna be a great run...edit...kind of pedestrian but cold through 72. 850s are warm because dynamics are not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 is this a joke? I'm confused now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 east of 395 rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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