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Feb 24th threat part deux


Typhoon Tip

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Nice reversal on the NAM from 18z, probably a high end advisory event(BTV usually has to be very confident that a wide area will see 9” before they go warning) verbatim for Lake Placid, but if it even ticks 20 miles west they could see something nice. We often up there get good ratios, so the .5-.75” on the NAM is probably 7-10”. Not great, but not bad by any means, should get most of the glades into play.

-skisheep

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NAM similar to 12z after taking a lot longer to get there. It's almost as if the surface low gets pinned over Long island until H5 catches up to it.

 

This might be due to the fact that the coastline and the gulf stream take an eastward turn just south of the New England coast.

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HOLY CRAP on the QPF. Okay back to reality here. Oh please can there be some consistency between the models. No biggy IMO if not this then the next, the tracks just keep on keepin on. Great to see the MW and Plains getting some drought relief albeit a little dent they need about 15" and then some.    

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