wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 imho, keys to this NAM run (if we can make any predictions based on the significant changes 18z vs. 12z)... 1) faster vorticity energy digging around base of trough... 18z had this more potent and digging farther south into New Mexico by 15z Sat, then was slow to catch up to our shortwave 2) further west primary low over Michigan and less ridging downstream we should be able to get a sense of both features by 36h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 SREF still favors snow there...but rain probs are creeping up. FZRA probs dominant in the Berks. Funny to see that with the low track the way it is, but possible with the initial warming aloft. It's a very bizarre setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Funny to see that with the low track the way it is, but possible with the initial warming aloft. It's a very bizarre setup. yeah SW flow that transitions (hopefully) into a coastal. I could see Kevin eeking out a 31.7F fzra before the cold air collapses back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 yeah SW flow that transitions (hopefully) into a coastal. I could see Kevin eeking out a 31.7F fzra before the cold air collapses back. His DAVIS will say 28.7 but only have a glaze on his grass to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 imho, keys to this NAM run (if we can make any predictions based on the significant changes 18z vs. 12z)... 1) faster vorticity energy digging around base of trough... 18z had this more potent and digging farther south into New Mexico by 15z Sat, then was slow to catch up to our shortwave 2) further west primary low over Michigan and less ridging downstream we should be able to get a sense of both features by 36h well regarding point #1, you can all see for yourself... by 33h, handling of vorticity rounding base of trough is alot like 18z, totally different from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Paul! How's life where have you been? While I'm extremely excited to be back in school managing work and school is on the challenging side, not that this is a bad thing but I just have to teach myself how to balance the two. I'm really disappointed in myself too b/c I wanted to get at least a 90-100 on every single graded assignment in all my classes but that hasn't happened. I'm also extremely nervous about math, I'm taking college algebra, only b/c I need that before I can go into calc and this math is what I did in late middle school and high school and I used to be really good at this but I've been struggling somewhat. As long as the secondary develops quickly. The primary kills us, but I still think models are a tick too warm at that level when you get near and north of the Pike. If the 00z runs come in weaker or stronger, you'll see changes as to how far north it goes. Initially the primary definitely does hurt, however, as we move through Saturday night and into Sunday AM, that secondary ejecting from the southern Plains looks like it means business. That's why I think initially, many places will have precip issues, especially south coast and into parts of CT/RI/SE MA, however, once that secondary gets going the system deepens quite rapidly and we should see colder air work back in. I just can't see a secondary not taking over in time to salvage many people given the mid/upper level look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM 4KM also had some ice even in nrn RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If the southern vort can catch up to the main system early enough.,..its going to be a big snow event for E MA...if it doesn't, it could be ugly rain or non-accumulating snow flipping to a steadier snow for a few hours before ending. I was thinking that earlier. Where this thing comes together is key, and could very well serve as the deal breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Just speculative. Short-range continue with the torch. GFS colder with dynamics kicking in. EURO comes in with a bomb overnight, much colder. I think I keep my day job thanks but no thanks. Lucky we have some very knowledgable Mets to clear the picture. "Battle lines bein drawn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I was thinking that earlier. Where this thing comes together is key, and could very well serve as the deal breaker. see comments above... this 0z Nam run looks like it'll be another late-bloomer (ie. not the monster hits of the 6z/12z)... exactly because the southern vorticity is lagging... i hope i'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Just speculative. Short-range continue with the torch. GFS colder with dynamics kicking in. EURO comes in with a bomb overnight, much colder. I think I keep my day job thanks but no thanks. Lucky we have some very knowledgable Mets to clear the picture. "Battle lines bein drawn" GFS is warmer than most of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 That southern vort is still in Canada. When will it be in the U.S? That's my guess to when the models will shift again either good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 see comments above... this 0z Nam run looks like it'll be another late-bloomer (ie. not the monster hits of the 6z/12z)... exactly because the southern vorticity is lagging... i hope i'm wrong The NAM looks less stretched out between the ULL in the GL and the vortmax over TX. I think it comes closer and perhaps stronger this run. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The NAM looks less stretched out between the ULL in the GL and the vortmax over TX. I think it comes closer and perhaps stronger this run. I could be wrong. Location wise upper level energy seems fairly aligned in all the models, especially with that vort max over TX/OK. I don't see too much of a change happening. Next couple runs of the Euro will shovel a better path. It's just a waiting game at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The NAM looks less stretched out between the ULL in the GL and the vortmax over TX. I think it comes closer and perhaps stronger this run. I could be wrong. Looks it, Its further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This run is going to be better I think...the southern vort is faster than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The NAM looks less stretched out between the ULL in the GL and the vortmax over TX. I think it comes closer and perhaps stronger this run. I could be wrong. No I think you're right, by 42h looks slightly better than 18z... (apologies everyone for not just waiting for the final score... i think the PBP analyzing these runs as they unfold gives a better understanding of the critical features... it's also more fun) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 this is looking much better... by 48h looks alot better, southern vort significantly faster than it was on 18z, and quite similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS is warmer than most of the other models. A given and I'm probably grasping. Would kind of make sense seeing the models trending the way they are because of the UL pattern. Guess you can't win them all the time. Regardless of outcome it will be fascinating watching it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Potency of the NAM vort max over TX/OK is nice too fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 liking the NAM so far, but temps still looks warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 4 mb stronger then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nice hit at 54h...much better than 18z. 0C line doesn't get up into MA like the 18z run either except far south coast...dynamics FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 tbh, i wonder if 18z Nam was a blip at h5... this run looks much more similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 A given and I'm probably grasping. Would kind of make sense seeing the models trending the way they are because of the UL pattern. Guess you can't win them all the time. Regardless of outcome it will be fascinating watching it unfold. Yeah dude these systems are great to follow and especially since the GFS is the outlier with this when it is typically one of the more reliable models makes this more interesting. NAM as of late has leap frogged the GFS with some of these noteworthy systems, including the blizzard. It'll be curious to see how this unfolds in the next few model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This run is going to nuke this low out between 54-60 hours with the way the upper air looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This run is going to nuke this low out between 54-60 hours with the way the upper air looks. Looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Location wise upper level energy seems fairly aligned in all the models, especially with that vort max over TX/OK. I don't see too much of a change happening. Next couple runs of the Euro will shovel a better path. It's just a waiting game at this point. There still has been shifts where a 50 mile shift as the run begins as a big effect by the time the low reaches us. We definitely don't want the ULL and the vortmax to be at opposite ends of the trough and all stretched out. If you compare the 18z NAM run, this run is not disjointed and therefore the low is able to develop and get the UL support from that sharp vortmax you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nice hit at 54h...much better than 18z. 0C line doesn't get up into MA like the 18z run either except far south coast...dynamics FTW. People like to talk about dynamic cooling alot but if there is ever a case for it, this is actually a pretty decent look to have dynamic cooling take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 WSW overnight? if GFS/Euro comeback .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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