CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 KC with 2nd biggest snowfall ever with 14 inches. Man ..we could never ever live there Well the payback are EF3s ripping through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I feel like I am living a country western song this week. Mom, Mom in law, stepdaughter(serious) and new puppy all in the hospital. Last thing I want is a ripping rain storm but it would be absolutely fitting. Lol I hope everything turns out all right for your family and you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well the payback are EF3s ripping through. If you go a little further north in the Plains, you can get some better snowfalls too. I know areas in SD like Deadwood average a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If you go a little further north in the Plains, you can get some better snowfalls too. I know areas in SD like Deadwood average a lot. Well they get epic upslope in the mtns there. I think Lead SD had like 90" in 1997 from erly upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I feel like I am living a country western song this week. Mom, Mom in law, stepdaughter(serious) and new puppy all in the hospital. Last thing I want is a ripping rain storm but it would be absolutely fitting. Lol Yikes, sending positive energy your way. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If you go a little further north in the Plains, you can get some better snowfalls too. I know areas in SD like Deadwood average a lot. But rarely in one sitting. Now boulder,co is different, 85 inch per year and some big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 was just reading a peer reviewed paper for something in school and just laughed...have to remember this in about an hour if it shows something either extremely good or extremely bad lol. Considering several metrics of forecast accuracy, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model outperformed the other models, while the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model was least skillful. not that we don't all know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hey Steve, you've been through a lot, I hope all goes ok with the family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 was just reading a peer reviewed paper for something in school and just laughed...have to remember this in about an hour if it shows something either extremely good or extremely bad lol. Considering several metrics of forecast accuracy, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model outperformed the other models, while the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model was least skillful. not that we don't all know that. Lol, awesome, what class was that for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Your forecasts this winter have been absolutely awful.Just terrible The KURO has had its fair share of busts...2 in the last week alone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well, this is not the thing we wanted to kick off the 00z runs with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 21z SREFs... still hit eastern MA pretty good 1" line through central MA, ticked slightly more north vs. 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 SREFs are still quite juicey for E MA...but they are warmer than 15z, they bring the 0C line up to the pike before collpsing SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I hope everything turns out all right for your family and you. I hope everything turns out all right for your family and you.Thanks all did not mean to derail. But it is appreciated. I wonder how warm it gets tomorrow, see a lot of East and Northeast winds to our west. Just these little things are going to be huge. Even a simple underestimation of LL cold, or SW interaction . IDK something's fishy to me at the climo prime time for a SW below us to be that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well chalk this up as a first if it happens. A low near the BM and 850 0C line kissing Rt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well chalk this up as a first if it happens. A low near the BM and 850 0C line kissing Rt 2. Not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Not happening Paul! How's life where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Geez seems like everyone is buying this torch solution. Box says bench mark track and rain/snow line thru 495 ..this airmass is apparently worse than bootleg, or models aren't handling 2m temps well in ne mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well chalk this up as a first if it happens. A low near the BM and 850 0C line kissing Rt 2. 2/24/98 was even worse...15 year anniversary coming up. Low over the BM and the 0C line past ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Not happening As long as the secondary develops quickly. The primary kills us, but I still think models are a tick too warm at that level when you get near and north of the Pike. If the 00z runs come in weaker or stronger, you'll see changes as to how far north it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 2/24/98 was even worse...15 year anniversary coming up. Low over the BM and the 0C line past ALB. I don't even remember that, but not surprising in that Nino torch winter.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I don't even remember that, but not surprising in that Nino torch winter.- It was never a big deal for the coast...but it was a massive bust in the wrong direction out here. I remember forecasts for NW of 495 in the ORH hills were 8-14"...we got 2" of snow and then flipped to heavy rain. Rained all the way back to Logan11's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It was never a big deal for the coast...but it was a massive bust in the wrong direction out here. I remember forecasts for NW of 495 in the ORH hills were 8-14"...we got 2" of snow and then flipped to heavy rain. Rained all the way back to Logan11's fanny. I just looked at PSU NARR. I want to vomit after seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ray's area is another wicked tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ray's area is another wicked tough call. If the southern vort can catch up to the main system early enough.,..its going to be a big snow event for E MA...if it doesn't, it could be ugly rain or non-accumulating snow flipping to a steadier snow for a few hours before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ray's area is another wicked tough call. I do not understand half of what they say on the Southie show but they do say wicked a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If the southern vort can catch up to the main system early enough.,..its going to be a big snow event for E MA...if it doesn't, it could be ugly rain or non-accumulating snow flipping to a steadier snow for a few hours before ending. Yeah, just a difference of 2" vs 10" that's all..lol. I feel a little bearish in my area, but given how guidance has had these little shifts with every run..I'm gonna hold out some hope into tomorrow anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I do not understand half of what they say on the Southie show but they do say wicked a lot. Never seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ray's area is another wicked tough call. SREF still favors snow there...but rain probs are creeping up. FZRA probs dominant in the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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