Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 That's not a new map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Again this all depends on what value or cost function the end consumer has. If you're consumer cares about wind speed, insolation, humidity, qpf, or temperature this is a high confidence, low risk forecast. You're assuming that all the consumer values is quantitative snow depth. This imparts a strongly nonlinear cost function. When the consumer is the public, that's pretty much all that matters. The other 0.25% may care otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I feel like I am living a country western song this week. Mom, Mom in law, stepdaughter(serious) and new puppy all in the hospital. Last thing I want is a ripping rain storm but it would be absolutely fitting. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Early thinking from me for central/northern CT was about 4-7'' of snow...not really completely buying a torch BL. One thing that seems pretty certain is we will have some pretty strong VV's and the winds in the llvls and in the BL quickly wrap around to the ENE/NNE so I don't think we'll have major problems with warm air, with the exception of at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Can't remember the last time BOX had <1" at LWM and a credible met on TV was forecasting 10-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I feel like I am living a country western song this week. Mom, Mom in law, stepdaughter(serious) and new puppy all in the hospital. Last thing I want is a ripping rain storm but it would be absolutely fitting. Lol I hope everything's okay, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 We have a 30,000 dollar Frito Lay corporate function with 700 people Sat night at the Museum, what's my confidence risk? If this trends even 2 degrees colder and is amped up, what do I do? Prepping has begun and $21,000 worth of food will be ready at 5pm. People are coming from all across SNE. High risk, huge impact to us forecast If it turns out to be snowy, save some Doritos for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I hope everything's okay, Steve.Thanks me too, lol sitting by my Moms bed checking the Euro today, she asked me what I was doing, said checking the Euro, she said oh, what's the exchange rate? Ha I laughed very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If it turns out to be snowy, save some Doritos for me! heavy heavy shrimp, prime rib, whiskey chicken and horsey dwarfs for me if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 There must have been some sort of unmodeled secondary arctic push today Odd Brad Field said it would be cooler today with a brisk wind (gradient between the High and Low Pressure) but Friday would be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Best of luck to you and your family Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Good luck Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Thanks me too, lol sitting by my Moms bed checking the Euro today, she asked me what I was doing, said checking the Euro, she said oh, what's the exchange rate? Ha I laughed very hard. Classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 heavy heavy shrimp, prime rib, whiskey chicken and horsey dwarfs for me if that happens Save a horsey dwarf. Ride the Euro WTF is a horsey dwarf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 We have a 30,000 dollar Frito Lay corporate function with 700 people Sat night at the Museum, what's my confidence risk? If this trends even 2 degrees colder and is amped up, what do I do? Prepping has begun and $21,000 worth of food will be ready at 5pm. People are coming from all across SNE. High risk, huge impact to us forecast It's not even that close to a snowstorm at your place...the 12z and 18z GFS have the line for accumulating snow around the MA/CT border, and the 18z NAM has it even further north as the 850-line climbs all the way up to the MA/NH border. I don't see any huge risk or huge impact; this is most likely a 100% rain event for you, and at the best maybe some sloppy snow that doesn't impact road conditions. The dying primary over the Lakes advects too much warm air in for most of us... It's the threats starting around Feb 28/Mar 1 that you should worry about. This one is for the northern crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Save a horsey dwarf. Ride the Euro WTF is a horsey dwarf? A pony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Save a horsey dwarf. Ride the Euro WTF is a horsey dwarf? Pony??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Thanks sorry for derailing, hors d'vours? horsey dwarfs Excited for 0 Z runs at any rate, as Ryan and Scooter would say Not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's not even that close to a snowstorm at your place...the 12z and 18z GFS have the line for accumulating snow around the MA/CT border, and the 18z NAM has it even further north as the 850-line climbs all the way up to the MA/NH border. I don't see any huge risk or huge impact; this is most likely a 100% rain event for you, and at the best maybe some sloppy snow that doesn't impact road conditions. The dying primary over the Lakes advects too much warm air in for most of us... Euro is what counts, and it has the 0z line in Northern CT after 06z Sunday. Shouldn't be a ton of snow, but not 100% rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lol. Whores di vores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's not even that close to a snowstorm at your place...the 12z and 18z GFS have the line for accumulating snow around the MA/CT border, and the 18z NAM has it even further north as the 850-line climbs all the way up to the MA/NH border. I don't see any huge risk or huge impact; this is most likely a 100% rain event for you, and at the best maybe some sloppy snow that doesn't impact road conditions. The dying primary over the Lakes advects too much warm air in for most of us... It's the threats starting around Feb 28/Mar 1 that you should worry about. This one is for the northern crowd. Your forecasts this winter have been absolutely awful.Just terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's not even that close to a snowstorm at your place...the 12z and 18z GFS have the line for accumulating snow around the MA/CT border, and the 18z NAM has it even further north as the 850-line climbs all the way up to the MA/NH border. I don't see any huge risk or huge impact; this is most likely a 100% rain event for you, and at the best maybe some sloppy snow that doesn't impact road conditions. The dying primary over the Lakes advects too much warm air in for most of us... It's the threats starting around Feb 28/Mar 1 that you should worry about. This one is for the northern crowd. OKX has other ideas, I know what today's models show, it's not today's that will tell the story Tubes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Tubes seems miserable. Hope he is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Save a horsey dwarf. Ride the Euro My new motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Your forecasts this winter have been absolutely awful.Just terrible Really? I haven't made that many of them...I know I called for 18-24" here in Westchester for Feb 8th, and that did pretty well. I know I also mentioned a long time ago that March might be decent if analogs with fading Niños with like 1978 and 2004 came to fruition. I am not saying your place won't see snow...but Ginx's work is a warmer climate than Tolland. Also, I think this will be one of those cases where the Euro and GFS compromise on temperature profiles; the GFS will be a bit too warm, the Euro will be a bit too cold, but the Euro will be closer than the GFS. Also, not having the NAM be on the colder side of guidance is worrying if you're hoping for a colder solution. The NAM tends to have a cold bias, especially in SW Flow events, so I tend to think the warmer models may verify when the NAM leans warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 OKX has other ideas, I know what today's models show, it's not today's that will tell the story Tubes. OKX's snowfall map looks like crap to be honest. Unless it's back end stuff like the ECM ENS show, there's no way Orange County just 30-40 miles from here is seeing 3-4" of snowfall from this storm. All the models have this being rain, or not a big deal with the late-developing coastal, for the OKX forecast zones. There's just not a lot going for this event...the high pressure slips offshore allowing for SE winds and fading antecedent cold, the coastal gets cranking late, and the primary tracks well into the Northern Great Lakes and hangs on late into the storm. Again, I'm not talking about ORH/AFN/BOS/LWM, who could get nailed in this storm. But for NYC metro and most of CT, I think it's time to turn to the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Really? I haven't made that many of them...I know I called for 18-24" here in Westchester for Feb 8th, and that did pretty well. I know I also mentioned a long time ago that March might be decent if analogs with fading Niños with like 1978 and 2004 came to fruition. I am not saying your place won't see snow...but Ginx's work is a warmer climate than Tolland. Also, I think this will be one of those cases where the Euro and GFS compromise on temperature profiles; the GFS will be a bit too warm, the Euro will be a bit too cold, but the Euro will be closer than the GFS. Also, not having the NAM be on the colder side of guidance is worrying if you're hoping for a colder solution. The NAM tends to have a cold bias, especially in SW Flow events, so I tend to think the warmer models may verify when the NAM leans warmer. Well maybe I was abit harsh, but it seems like you're basing that off of the 18z US models without using anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a text book case of a snow event in the midwest now. Everything is displayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a text book case of a snow event in the midwest now. Everything is displayed. KC with 2nd biggest snowfall ever with 14 inches. Man ..we could never ever live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Look at those striations on radar over nrn MO. That's instability and convective precip...all feeding into the expanding snow area over NE. At the NW edge of the snow shield is the death band. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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