CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This event is not complex. The thermal profile is just borderline. In that sense it is quite simple. The problem that arises is that the public and decision makers don't know what to do with a probabilistic forecast. For the record, I think the BOX deterministic grids look very reasonable. Elevation will be key in this storm. This is why Jaffrey so often gets the jackpot. It's very complex when you are isothermal for 200mb. Big bust potential. Easiest areas are likely ORH hills and cstl SE MA and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Matt Noyes latest map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GEFS ensembles weren't too bad. I know this is the "colder" guidance...but I don't see a reason to sway much from the euro guidance right now. It just seems reasonable, SREFs seem to agree, and they still show the warm tongue rather well..but a little more reasonable than into srn NH like the GFS has. If it busts, than it's likely a result of the storm ending up weaker and more progressive which lessens the CCB impact and flip to snow for areas getting a mix. 00z runs should be interesting. I won't be shocked if they try for a comeback. Thanks for the info. Gonna be an interesting one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Was there some secondary push of cold air today? I saw some forecasts yesterday of temps near 40 today. The high was 26.6 it's actually colder now at 18.1 than it was this morning at 18.5..and the winds are ripping. Innteresting anyway Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GEFS ensembles weren't too bad. I know this is the "colder" guidance...but I don't see a reason to sway much from the euro guidance right now. It just seems reasonable, SREFs seem to agree, and they still show the warm tongue rather well..but a little more reasonable than into srn NH like the GFS has. If it busts, than it's likely a result of the storm ending up weaker and more progressive which lessens the CCB impact and flip to snow for areas getting a mix. 00z runs should be interesting. I won't be shocked if they try for a comeback. Srefs are great from about HFD north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Matt Noyes latest map: mattnoyes.jpg We'll take 6 and run..though i think that will likely change as we get closer..All depends how much sleet we get and how long it lasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Matt Noyes latest map: mattnoyes.jpg Very reasonable IMO. Told my sister 6" for reading earlier this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Srefs are great from about HFD north It doesn't mean they are right, but they seemed ok to me. I would add a touch of the GFS profile in case this does not come in strong at all. Good way to balance guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What is this insanity? BOX looks confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 We'll take 6 and run..though i think that will likely change as we get closer..All depends how much sleet we get and how long it lastsIt's odd to see a SWFE map on a bombing MillerB heading from NJ to the BM, IDK what to think tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's odd with the temps tonite..Noone answered my ? and maybe it doesn't matter in re: to the storm..but temps west of ORh are much colder than areas farther east. It's in the teens in NW Ct and the Berks and hills of CT(17.5 here) Forecast low is 19)..but 23 at ORH. Even BDL is colder than ORH. There must have been some sort of unmodeled secondary arctic push today Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Should we invoke our models lose it 72-84 but then hone in rule? 0 Z is telling, Tomorrows 12Z is the most important run of little Chris Ms life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 JB surprisingly not bullish...1-4 for most of CT and 4-8 for interior Eastern MA-nothing higher.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Was there some secondary push of cold air today? I saw some forecasts yesterday of temps near 40 today. The high was 26.6 it's actually colder now at 18.1 than it was this morning at 18.5..and the winds are ripping. Innteresting anyway It's a bit nipplier down by you than here--interesting. 22.2/14 off a high of 25.0 Maybe you're stealing the Berks temperatures as well as their snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's odd with the temps tonite..Noone answered my ? and maybe it doesn't matter in re: to the storm..but temps west of ORh are much colder than areas farther east. It's in the teens in NW Ct and the Berks and hills of CT(17.5 here) Forecast low is 19)..but 23 at ORH. Even BDL is colder than ORH. There must have been some sort of unmodeled secondary arctic push today Odd MOS a couple of days ago was running too warm. It had highs near 40 for both yesterday and today, BUT in the short-term it did re-adjust. MOS this morning had low to mid-30's for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's odd with the temps tonite..Noone answered my ? and maybe it doesn't matter in re: to the storm..but temps west of ORh are much colder than areas farther east. It's in the teens in NW Ct and the Berks and hills of CT(17.5 here) Forecast low is 19)..but 23 at ORH. Even BDL is colder than ORH. There must have been some sort of unmodeled secondary arctic push today Odd I do not remember anyone forecasting winds increasing today with dropping temps either but unrelated to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Was there some secondary push of cold air today? I saw some forecasts yesterday of temps near 40 today. The high was 26.6 it's actually colder now at 18.1 than it was this morning at 18.5..and the winds are ripping. Innteresting anyway It got up to 25F here and it's currently 21F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 JB surprisingly not bullish...1-4 for most of CT and 4-8 for interior Eastern MA-nothing higher.... Good omen for 00zs tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 MOS a couple of days ago was running too warm. It had highs near 40 for both yesterday and today, BUT in the short-term it did re-adjust. MOS this morning had low to mid-30's for CT. But even when you look at the mesomap..look how much colder it is in CNE and WNE as compared to ORH east. I don't think that was modeled or forecast and probably means nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It got up to 25F here and it's currently 21F. It got to 26.6 for the high here at 1,000 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMet Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's very complex when you are isothermal for 200mb. Big bust potential. Easiest areas are likely ORH hills and cstl SE MA and the Cape. Again this all depends on what value or cost function the end consumer has. If you're consumer cares about wind speed, insolation, humidity, qpf, or temperature this is a high confidence, low risk forecast. You're assuming that all the consumer values is quantitative snow depth. This imparts a strongly nonlinear cost function. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I know I froze my balls off on the top of our Tower when a carrier heater blew a motor. I imagined I was Ryan at the top of the world, lol. No sh it though winds were near 45 up there and the temp was 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 TyphoonTip has a twin I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It got to 26.6 for the high here at 1,000 feet In town Coventry's Weatherbug at 730' had a high of 26F and they are at 19.6F while I am at 21F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Winds are howling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 In town Coventry's Weatherbug at 730' had a high of 26F and they are at 19.6F while I am at 21F. 17.5 here..Was down to 17.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Again this all depends on what value or cost function the end consumer has. If you're consumer cares about wind speed, insolation, humidity, qpf, or temperature this is a high confidence, low risk forecast. You're assuming that all the consumer values is quantitative snow depth. This imparts a strongly nonlinear cost function.We have a 30,000 dollar Frito Lay corporate function with 700 people Sat night at the Museum, what's my confidence risk? If this trends even 2 degrees colder and is amped up, what do I do? Prepping has begun and $21,000 worth of food will be ready at 5pm. People are coming from all across SNE. High risk, huge impact to us forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 17.5 here..Was down to 17.1 Strangley enough the temperature here is now down to 17F and falling, weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Winds are howling Yeah nice low level northerly flow ripping here too. Waiting on some OES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's a bit nipplier down by you than here--interesting. 22.2/14 off a high of 25.0 Maybe you're stealing the Berks temperatures as well as their snow. That map looks like a cold air sink flowing down the CRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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