ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 MRG is convinced he is going to get a foot+ of snow. I feel bad for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 MRG is convinced he is going to get a foot+ of snow. I feel bad for him. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Noyes' new map shows 2" inside 128. 4" for ORH. Dendrite Land scores well with 9-12". Guess it's a CNE winter. Quickly trending away for us in E NE/E MA. So much for the thrills at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Since when did maps come out so early, its ridiculous to see them change with every model run.......what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I love it. Snow map chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We have total disagreement along credible mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 From 12" to 2". Wtf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...that's why all I did was this. Some call it the easy route but think it's the best route right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Harvey's map looks reasonable. A more latitudinal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...that's why all I did was this. Some call it the easy route but think it's the best route right now ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361487665.610793.jpg You tickle me with your highest confidence, I feel enthralled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...that's why all I did was this. Some call it the easy route but think it's the best route right now ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361487665.610793.jpg I can't read through the graphics. Is that a map of Cape Cod, MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hmmm I don't know if I necessarily buy that map. I obviously hope he and everyone else does well. That shows 6-8 for my house, I picked the wrong weekend to go home lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I was going to run a map, but honestly don't even have the confidence to do so. Maybe I'll do it after 00z tonight. This storm is a headache! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Harvey had little to no confidence in his call/map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We have total disagreement along credible mets. considering we are about 60 hours from the main thrust of this event, it is insanity to throw out any other forecast than to say "stay tuned" and to give a broad feeling as to the potential. silly really, given how finely tuned the differing solutions are and that slight shifts have enormous consequences. I would lean to more rather than less and colder rather than warmer(for areas just south of boston and on north to the me/nh border and back to orh and north to the ma/nh border) with it again being an eastern storm. but as of now, that is also provided with many grains of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Harvey had little to no confidence in his call/map. Saw him too and I agree. 11pm could be a total different call. Bouchard better just cancel his weather segment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Were the GEFS different from the OP run? (on my phone, so I can't read graphics). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...that's why all I did was this. Some call it the easy route but think it's the best route right nowImageUploadedByTapatalk1361487665.610793.jpg You tickle me with your highest confidence, I feel enthralled Well this is a no hype zone. Lol. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Harvey had little to no confidence in his call/map. Saw him too and I agree. 11pm could be a total different call. Bouchard better just cancel his weather segment. He was sticking with 10-16 I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 He was sticking with 10-16 I saw He just does not care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 He just does not care. Maybe he doesn't want to be accused of being a model hugger? Idk. Nobody has a clue. NWS map is just as bad if not worse. Accumulating snow in Warwick RI and a coating in Lowell. Yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...that's why all I did was this. Some call it the easy route but think it's the best route right now ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361487665.610793.jpg I like it... seems like the wisest thing to do right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Was there some secondary push of cold air today? I saw some forecasts yesterday of temps near 40 today. The high was 26.6 it's actually colder now at 18.1 than it was this morning at 18.5..and the winds are ripping. Innteresting anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I like it... seems like the wisest thing to do right now. The pressure is there to throw numbers out, but this is such a tough call outside the hills of central MA into NH. Phil has a good map..really not much more you can do to add value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm not sure the latitude thing is a little overplayed by Harvey, but underplayed by the NWS snowfall map. The lower els/coastal plain are going to have trouble more efficiently accumulating (to some degree) for most of SNE, naturally lower totals should be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm not sure the latitude thing is a little overplayed by Harvey, but underplayed by the NWS snowfall map. The lower els/coastal plain are going to have trouble more efficiently accumulating (to some degree) for most of SNE, naturally lower totals should be considered. But you also will have colder 950-850 temps in NE MA. That's fine for Ipswich, but I don't buy the low numbers to 495. JMHO. Tons of time for it to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The pressure is there to throw numbers out, but this is such a tough call outside the hills of central MA into NH. Phil has a good map..really not much more you can do to add value. Yeah, inside 24 hours you obviously need to give some numbers, but this event is too complex to be issuing the public accurate amounts at 48-72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My thoughts on the snow totals...Boston,rain to mixed precip to heavy wet snow at tail end as freezing line crashes to SE Mass...Interior Mass and SWNH 8-12 with a few higher totals..8-16 with banding..and further into NH and Maine...12-16" where colder air is entrenched.. http://northeastweathereye.com Augusta Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMet Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This event is not complex. The thermal profile is just borderline. In that sense it is quite simple. The problem that arises is that the public and decision makers don't know what to do with a probabilistic forecast. For the record, I think the BOX deterministic grids look very reasonable. Elevation will be key in this storm. This is why Jaffrey so often gets the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GEFS ensembles weren't too bad. I know this is the "colder" guidance...but I don't see a reason to sway much from the euro guidance right now. It just seems reasonable, SREFs seem to agree, and they still show the warm tongue rather well..but a little more reasonable than into srn NH like the GFS has. If it busts, than it's likely a result of the storm ending up weaker and more progressive which lessens the CCB impact and flip to snow for areas getting a mix. 00z runs should be interesting. I won't be shocked if they try for a comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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