Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Feb 24th threat part deux


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

We have total disagreement along credible mets.

 

considering we are about 60 hours from the main thrust of this event, it is insanity to throw out any other forecast than to say "stay tuned" and to give a broad feeling as to the potential. silly really, given how finely tuned the differing solutions are and that slight shifts have enormous consequences. I would lean to more rather than less and colder rather than warmer(for areas just south of boston and on north to the me/nh border and back to orh and north to the ma/nh border) with it again being an eastern storm. but as of now, that is also provided with many grains of salt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure the latitude thing is a little overplayed by Harvey, but underplayed by the NWS snowfall map.   The lower els/coastal plain are going to have trouble more efficiently accumulating (to some degree) for most of SNE,  naturally lower totals should be considered. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure the latitude thing is a little overplayed by Harvey, but underplayed by the NWS snowfall map.   The lower els/coastal plain are going to have trouble more efficiently accumulating (to some degree) for most of SNE,  naturally lower totals should be considered. 

 

But you also will have colder 950-850 temps in NE MA. That's fine for Ipswich, but I don't buy the low numbers to 495. JMHO. Tons of time for it to change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The pressure is there to throw numbers out, but this is such a tough call outside the hills of central MA into NH. Phil has a good map..really not much more you can do to add value.

 

Yeah, inside 24 hours you obviously need to give some numbers, but this event is too complex to be issuing the public accurate amounts at 48-72 hours out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This event is not complex. The thermal profile is just borderline. In that sense it is quite simple. The problem that arises is that the public and decision makers don't know what to do with a probabilistic forecast.

For the record, I think the BOX deterministic grids look very reasonable. Elevation will be key in this storm. This is why Jaffrey so often gets the jackpot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEFS ensembles weren't too bad.

 

I know this is the "colder" guidance...but I don't see a reason to sway much from the euro guidance right now. It just seems reasonable, SREFs seem to agree, and they still show the warm tongue rather well..but a little more reasonable than into srn NH like the GFS has. If it busts, than it's likely a result of the storm ending up weaker and more progressive which lessens the CCB impact and flip to snow for areas getting a mix.

 

00z runs should be interesting. I won't be shocked if they try for a comeback.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...