SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Upton and Taunton not agreeing for Central CT, far northern New Haven county has 4” from Upton, and then Taunton has southern Hartford county in <1”. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 if it comes down hard it favors certain geographies Yes, but that assumes adequate conditions from top of bl through mls. Bottom line is dynamics and it won't matter if you are at 5k if the better lift and moisture is disjointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Per the paid maps on storm vista, Boston gets 0 accumulating snows this run. Springfield, MA is about the SE edge of where it starts. VT and northern NH do good this run. Those maps suck though. I use sv also and they suck. That's not what we're paying for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just a really tough forecast outside of the high interior. I definitely would be conservative here..no question. Just a bizarre setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 After reading the analysis from our mets today, I didn't think <1" would make it all the way to 495. Anyway, I'll start to process of aborting this event. I'm quickly losing interest. GL to the hills though. Should be a pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Those maps suck though. I use sv also and they suck. That's not what we're paying for. antecedence its ripping cold and windier than I thought it would be just gusted to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 antecedence its ripping cold and windier than I thought it would be just gusted to 35. Hey what is the NOAA.Docs.Lib site you use for surface analysis archive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Those maps suck though. I use sv also and they suck. That's not what we're paying for. antecedence its ripping cold and windier than I thought it would be just gusted to 35. It's also thur not sat pm. That's part of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Which storm was the "dryslot" one, where Tip was actually angry about the shredded radar appearance? This setup screams "shredded" to me, not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I can't see why they have 1" to 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just a really tough forecast outside of the high interior. I definitely would be conservative here..no question. Just a bizarre setup.You could be like 2 or 10". Neither is hard to imagine. I do think the "wildcard zone" is E MA. Felt that way yesterday and don't really feel any different today. The other thing that needs to be considered is solar insolation vs precip rates. This is for Sun"day" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You could be like 2 or 10". Neither is hard to imagine. I do think the "wildcard zone" is E MA. Felt that way yesterday and don't really feel any different today. The other thing that needs to be considered is solar insolation vs precip rates. This is for Sun"day" Yeah, 0.2" every 6hrs ain't gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's also thur not sat pm. That's part of this. Thanks Cap o, was talking to Jerry OT about today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18z GFS is very warm. Restricts accumulating snows to VT, NH and back towards Albany. Yeah it's pretty warm, but I think it would cool quickly through most of Mass with a stronger SLP. Actually ALB is mostly rain with a little light snow at the end on the 18z GFS. Pretty close though. Saragota and Glens Falls manage a nice event... and over into SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The low placement would actually be pretty good for E NY and W MA, but it's weak and warm and therefore taints up to AQW. A more dynamic solution with this track would actually be good for this neck of the woods... Yeah agreed. However, I'm concerned that the GGEM, Euro, and NAM had very little QPF west of the NY border and ensembles have been cutting back steadily as well. The GFS is a western outlier with its QPF field, and as you say, pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The BOX map is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hey what is the NOAA.Docs.Lib site you use for surface analysis archive? Bumb Ginxy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So run to the bathroom, do something around the house/office and then come back and look. I just don't see the need for MBY BS and 10 posts complaining about peoples interpretations or lack thereof when they can solve the problem by themselves if they wait for 15min. All due respect but you are missing the fun of this and the tongue-in-cheek ness of the whole thing. I think the Wills and Scotts and Jeffs and Jerrys etc of our world get this....at least I hope so. It is a huge privilege to be in here and read the interpretation, and we weenies get worked up. It is funny. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Upton seems way more bullish than Taunton, not sure what BOX is thinking with less than 1” at Logan? Overreacting to the 12z EURO perhaps? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Upton seems way more bullish than Taunton, not sure what BOX is thinking with less than 1” at Logan? Overreacting to the 12z EURO perhaps? -skisheep How is ctrl RI getting more than LWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 How is ctrl RI getting more than LWM? Strong SE flow off the water with SST's in the upper 30s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Strong SE flow off the water with SST's in the upper 30s? The temps aloft are torched there. It makes zero sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Bumb Ginxy. Oh crap missed it, hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Oh crap missed it, hold on http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The temps aloft are torched there. It makes zero sense to me. Yeah...if anything according to that map's logic, C RI would be at <1" too. That will not be the final map though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The BOX map is weird. I agree. Seems like eastern areas would do better than a inch?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 How is ctrl RI getting more than LWM? Exactly my point... Not sure what BOX is basing this map on, think Upton is being a bit too aggressive especially NW of the city where they have up to a low end advisory event, and even I see flakes according to them (<1”), however, think they might have a better clue than BOX on this, who just seems lost... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Does not seem to match w/their 4pm discussion. my guess is this will be changed. The BOX map is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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