Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm banging the Euro ensembles/SREFs. As you should , lets look at the Mlevels on this, all are south of SNE, an intial burst of warmth I could see but how does a deepening 8H 7H center near the BM throw more BL warmth way into VT. Something is messed up on the American models, its a very weird look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As of 4:55pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As you should , lets look at the Mlevels on this, all are south of SNE, an intial burst of warmth I could see but how does a deepening 8H 7H center near the BM throw more BL warmth way into VT. Something is messed up on the American models, its a very weird look. Canadian has it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As you should , lets look at the Mlevels on this, all are south of SNE, an intial burst of warmth I could see but how does a deepening 8H 7H center near the BM throw more BL warmth way into VT. Something is messed up on the American models, its a very weird look. It's all how fast everything comes together. All signals argue against that warmth, but even the euro was mild. It shows you how important dynamics are. We torch aloft ahead of this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No I didn't. I saw that and also saw elevations are favored for accums. Obviously Noone has any clue yet what will happen including us on this forum Elevation seems favored in the NWS P/C product right now as they have 32F with a rain/snow mix in my town at >600' and 31F with sleet/snow on the P/C here at 835' for the saturday night forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Fine with me. A nice general 0.5-0.75" QPF across much of VT/NH with some spot's greater than that in the far southern portions of those states. I'd hit that immediately... a 4-8 inch type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The airmass kind of sucks ahead of the developing low. The track is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think that map is a little too low for int NE MA, but the ORH spine looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This will be great for the locals. NWS with nothing, we'll see what the local stations say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As of 4:55pm disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As of 4:55pm Nice, less than 1" here. I'll take it! oh wait...I forgot :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gotta think ORH county and interior NE MA are favored right now. ESP nrn ORH county. Yeah agreed. This should get HubbDave pretty well. Going to be a sharp gradient likely right along the Pike. We are sort of due for a RT 2 into CNE type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The airmass kind of sucks ahead of the developing low. The track is fine.if it comes down hard it favors certain geographies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 of it comes down hard it favors certain geographies Like nrn ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm banging the Euro ensembles/SREFs. How were the EURO ens? I can't believe that BOX gives me just 1-2" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 How were the EURO ens? I can't believe that BOX gives me just 1-2" lol They looked sim to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think that map is a little too low for int NE MA, but the ORH spine looks good. Yeah I agree. Good look overall. Maybe doesn't factor in possible E MA Sunday bonus too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 They looked sim to the op. I think BOX is too low for you personally., Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I bet you will see them drop based on what the BOX is saying. This will be great for the locals. NWS with nothing, we'll see what the local stations say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Like nrn ORH.Why are you so against our area of getting any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As of 4:55pm Looks very reasonable... maybe more in NE MA depending on how quickly thicknesses crash. Low levels will be warm though and any rain during the first half will make accums a bit harder falling on a wet/moist surface without a flash freeze type deal. Still, if those UVVs pan out that NE MA area will go to parachutes with a good deal of QPF left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Why are you so against our area of getting any snow? You'll get some, but you guys torch aloft. You better hope that backside CCB forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You'll get some, but you guys torch aloft. You better hope that backside CCB forms.o think you're way too hung up on this aloft stuff. I think it starts as snow Sat am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charleskoz Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Both the NAM and GFS have shifted away our latest tease storm. I'm... so.. shocked. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NWS <1" WHDH 10-16" General public being played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NWS <1" WHDH 10-16" General public being played. Lol is that their new map?? Maybe they're waiting for 00z runs to make any changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 o think you're way too hung up on this aloft stuff. I think it starts as snow Sat am I agree you start as some..but you flip or ping for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I agree you start as some..but you flip or ping for a while.Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like Harvey is backing down a little bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Besides, it's not set in stome by any means..but I think it shows you that in areas like Tolland and cstl regions..you really want that s/w to go to town and induce bombogenesis off the coast. The trend for this to be separated and weaken with time is concerning. It doesn't mean that the 00z runs can't ramp up a bit, but something to watch. SREFs and euro are the coldest, but still have issues for said regions. I don't think much changed for ORH and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.