Baroclinic Zone Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Was my 1.8" guess correct at BOS, on the NAM? Looks pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=41.8532&sounding.lon=-72.2791&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=18&fhour=63¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=text&view=large&archive=false that is NOT a ZR sounding, no matter how much kev wishes it is... Hey Steve... Psst .. Ever hear of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=41.8532&sounding.lon=-72.2791&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=18&fhour=63¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=text&view=large&archive=false that is NOT a ZR sounding, no matter how much kev wishes it is... It looks like sleet presuming a good qpf rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't see a ZR or much of a big sleet issue either. It's either snow or rain...maybe a narrow sleet area like Will said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 26 members, 21 guests, 3 anonymous users looks like the amwx users in thread count model is not supporting a blockbuster storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hey Steve... Psst .. Ever hear of sleet? I assume when you say 'ice' = ZR, not IP...either way that is a fairly dense warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Unfortunate model changes today. Significant differences just since last night's 0z runs. The cutoff is much further eastward ahead of the southern stream vort in this afternoon's guidance. And this thing might still be evolving. I could see it turning into mostly a miss with the primary tainting the airmass out ahead of a weak offshore coastal low. Definitely heading in that direcion. Maybe future runs increase the initial overrunning or just backtrack on the primary evolution. H5 is really lousy on all guidance compared to earlier runs, and getting more lousy each cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Latest RPM is pretty meh... like 4-7 for most. 5-8" seems like a good forecast for now. Could be a lot more but I'm surprised how bullish some forecasts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We'll be fine. I'd take 4"+ and run with it and everything else is just gravy. Yeah, I think we're (interior) locked at least for 6"+, perhaps a foot. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Par for the course last couple winters, but that's the way it goes sometimes. Eventually lows will start crossing inside the benchmark, but until then we'll wait our turn and wish them the best. Extreme western Mass and Vermont have had it the same, but most posters are in the populated areas east of the CT River. I spent the first couple decades of my life in the Western CT hills, and even with my higher elevation I remember too many storms where I flipped to IP or rain while Upstate NY and ALB were ripping... as it is, my climo is more in line with interior New England than it is with the lake areas of NY, so much of my time is spent here. Well said. I always hope for the snowiest possible solution if I am out of the game because I know there are people in other locations who will enjoy it just like we would. I think this low could cross inside the benchmark and we still might get skunked because it develops late and keeps the good moisture east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looking at that convection over the southern Plains... Any chance that could help build ridging downstream allowing for a farther west track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looking at that convection over the southern Plains... Any chance that could help build ridging downstream allowing for a farther west track? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looking at that convection over the southern Plains... Any chance that could help build ridging downstream allowing for a farther west track? You're beginning to think like me. That's not a good thing. For either of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looking at that convection over the southern Plains... Any chance that could help build ridging downstream allowing for a farther west track? That's not even our system really. Ours is over SOCAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That convection seems pretty well modeled..I don't think there are any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That convection seems pretty well modeled..I don't think there are any surprises.Just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 And again SLK goes from a warning event to just 2-4" on the latest NAM in the span of 24 hours, and EURO and GFS not much better. knew down here was out from the beginning, but what does Lake Placid have to do to get a warning event??? Almost all of the major storms have missed them except the blizzard and the 26th of december, Whiteface climo is over 200" inches, and a 2 week period end of december beginning of january is the only thing keeping them close to average. Midweek next week has potential, but like everything else this winter it probably will trend east. Not heading to Berkshires unless they get atleast 6", I have vouchers at Hunter that I need to use and despite the zoo that it often is, they put out a very good product. Still hopeful for a reversal west, but don't think it's happening... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18z GFS looks like its NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Using the rpm 60+ hours out. Isn't that useless? Then again is it worse than the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 First attempt at putting numbers on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 gfs might be warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Its 18z wanna bet its amped up, loaded with qpf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Pretty amped from 12z and NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Its a toaster south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Actually a great disco from BOX today. Favoring hills of course but allowing plenty of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Was my 1.8" guess correct at BOS, on the NAM? Looks pretty close. your guess was right total qpf kbos 1.75" on 18z Nam 2.88" on 12z Nam by hook or by crook, Nam has produced for eastern MA for 3 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Its a toaster south Fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Starts crashing temps mid levels post 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS is warm.Do you care ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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