wxsniss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18z nam lol... when a threat starts to skunk, it doesn't stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:03 PM, weatherMA said: Seeing all these changing maps lately starting 4 days out is really, really bad for this industry. Seeing complaints all over the place. Terrible. Whdh just made their 10-14" to 5-8" and they got like 100 comments on FB from people complaining. Maps should be coming out for the first time right now. I don't know why all of a sudden this year maps are made 4 days out, but it's making public perception of mets even worse then before. It could be worse. NBC 4 here in New York showed a RPM model graphic 48 hrs before the 2/8 storm with a 29.3" total at Central Park. People freaked out and panicked, and the gas lines we had after Sandy re-appeared all for a manageable 12" storm on average here (a lot more in Suffolk County). I got 3 or 4 freaked out voicemails from family members asking about the storm and mentioning that "Channel 4's saying we're getting 30" of snow ohemgee!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:15 PM, CoastalWx said: My preliminary outlook mentioned maybe a burst of SN..perhaps borderline moderate for a few hours and then perhaps a lull with a light mix or rain, followed by a possibly burst of snow Sunday into Sunday evening. KBOS of course. Yeah that sounds reasonable. I actually think this will have a pretty wintry appeal later on Sunday for a lot of the eastern half of the region. If people can let go of the idea that this can still be a MECS, it could be an enjoyable event with prolonged snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 6:23 PM, SJonesWX said: not sure if anyone in SNE or NNE gives a crap about Lake Placid. They may not, but it's one of my locations and I'm simply commenting on it. If you have a problem with it, simply ignore it, however, I think it's worth mentioning, since it illustrates the volatility associated with this system, in Lake Placid this went from a 12"+ event to 1-3" in just a few model runs. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 6:30 PM, powderfreak said: They are pretty much NNE extension...in BTV's CWA. But the point is not many in SNE care about the North Country...but why should you? Exactly, although technichally it belongs in the upstate NY subforum, the weather in SLK is much more similar to Burlington and NNE than it is to Buffalo... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:17 PM, weatherMA said: lol NAM. On 2/22/2013 at 8:17 PM, wxsniss said: 18z nam lol... when a threat starts to skunk, it doesn't stop Rather than these sorts of posts, why not comment on what it shows instead. Looks like it's a WAA push before dryslot. Eastern areas may hold onto the precip as the MLs get going and onshore flow is developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:17 PM, jm1220 said: It could be worse. NBC 4 here in New York showed a RPM model graphic 48 hrs before the 2/8 storm with a 29.3" total at Central Park. People freaked out and panicked, and the gas lines we had after Sandy re-appeared all for a manageable 12" storm on average here (a lot more in Suffolk County). I got 3 or 4 freaked out voicemails from family members asking about the storm and mentioning that "Channel 4's saying we're getting 30" of snow ohemgee!!!" that RPM graphic only ended up being 60 miles off...Bridgeport and parts of LI did get the 30....I agree though, crazy to show that to the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 6:25 PM, WeatherX said: Skisheep says 4-6" for you Jerry. -Skisheep He does? Unless I moved to Norwalk and started adressing myself in the 3rd person I'm pretty sure I didn't say that. (Although I do think that's a reasonable call ) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that sounds reasonable. I actually think this will have a pretty wintry appeal later on Sunday for a lot of the eastern half of the region. If people can let go of the idea that this can still be a MECS, it could be an enjoyable event with prolonged snow. I mentioned that people may be too focused Saturday Night and not enough later Sunday....lol. Unless this delivers 8" of NORLUN snows in 5 hrs..not a high impact event as far as I'm concerned here so room for error. I even could see this as mostly snow, just not really doing much when it lightens up and we rot at like 34F or something for a while. Tough call. I'm just concerned that we only have a brief burst and then 12 hrs of non acc snow until a second burst moves in...and even that may be tricky. I don't think it matters much where you are fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 When the friggin NAM is tame, you know the threat has gone to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:15 PM, CoastalWx said: My preliminary outlook mentioned maybe a burst of SN..perhaps borderline moderate for a few hours and then perhaps a lull with a light mix or rain, followed by a possibly burst of snow Sunday into Sunday evening. KBOS of course. How many qualifiers can you include in an outlook, er, a preliminary outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Whatever happens... It looks like this thing is goimng to seriously under-perform for a pattern with so much potential. Then next week seems to be looking for a way to under-perform also, until we get to the possible bomb next weekend, but that is in the realm of fiction now. On 2/22/2013 at 8:15 PM, CoastalWx said: My preliminary outlook mentioned maybe a burst of SN..perhaps borderline moderate for a few hours and then perhaps a lull with a light mix or rain, followed by a possibly burst of snow Sunday into Sunday evening. KBOS of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 i thought the box winter storm watch for west of worcestor was a bit premature as well being the brunt of the event even then was not really until overnight sat/sun am and i was thinking wsw would have held off til tonight's package at the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:26 PM, skisheep said: He does? Unless I moved to Norwalk and started adressing myself in the 3rd person I'm pretty sure I didn't say that. (Although I do think that's a reasonable call ) -skisheep Lol. We need to get Jerry over the top......4-6" and maybe that can be tickled up a bit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Very rare to have the EC more bullish then the NAM. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well when they stuck ENY and NENY into that UpstateNY sub-forum that put a stake in most of the regulat posts from our side of the state. But I had no say on that... The Upstate sub-forum is all LES and western NY dominated and their wx has more in common with the Midwest. On 2/22/2013 at 8:23 PM, skisheep said: Exactly, although technichally it belongs in the upstate NY subforum, the weather in SLK is much more similar to Burlington and NNE than it is to Buffalo... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Since yesterday morning I had a feeling we were heading to where the Euro, GFS, and NAM are going. The weak, offshore track looks pretty locked in at this point. And marginal temps as well. What I'm curious about is if the elongated upper low can squeeze out a few inches on Sunday. That could be the surprise in all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:29 PM, danstorm said: How many qualifiers can you include in an outlook, er, a preliminary outlook? What do you mean? That was basically a summary of a summary right there. I was thinking 3-6 earlier, maybe 2-4 now if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:33 PM, weatherMA said: Very rare to have the EC more bullish then the NAM. Interesting. NAM is a pretty bad model outside of 18 hours...it can produce many a solution. I've seen it whiff a MECS/HECS 300 miles SE 24hours before the event (think 12/19/09)...then have it comes way too far west within 1 or 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:30 PM, Logan11 said: Whatever happens... It looks like this thing is goimng to seriously under-perform for a pattern with so much potential. Then next week seems to be looking for a way to under-perform also, until we get to the possible bomb next weekend, but that is in the realm of fiction now. This threat looked great a week out. And the SNE special looked great a week before that. I don't trust long range stuff. Patterns don't deliver. Storms do. Right now the best chance for snow in ENY is tonight through Sunday. The midweek event wants to cut inland. I see rain or possible elevation snow, but that's just guessing. Any bomb beyond that is highly suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GYX downgraded but still has 6-10" for ME coast. I guess the EC supports that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Elongated upper low, inverted trough...whatever you want to call it. I guess that's what we are left with in ENY. Maybe we can manage 2 or 3 inches here on the hill. I wonder if Tuesday/Wednesday is going to evolve into a similar situation. On 2/22/2013 at 8:34 PM, eduggs said: Since yesterday morning I had a feeling we were heading to where the Euro, GFS, and NAM are going. The weak, offshore track looks pretty locked in at this point. And marginal temps as well. What I'm curious about is if the elongated upper low can squeeze out a few inches on Sunday. That could be the surprise in all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:36 PM, ORH_wxman said: NAM is a pretty bad model outside of 18 hours...it can produce many a solution. I've seen it whiff a MECS/HECS 300 miles SE 24hours before the event (think 12/19/09)...then have it comes way too far west within 1 or 2 runs. I think the NAM finally has a clue. Synoptically it matches up pretty well with the GFS and Euro. The SLP is weak and offshore. Generally low impact. Minor QPF differences will be determined by mesoscale effects and the upper level interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:39 PM, weatherMA said: GYX downgraded but still has 6-10" for ME coast. I guess the EC supports that solution. If you looked at the Euro qpf map and the GYX snowfall map, Its just about identical .75" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hopefully 1k feet and 25 miles west of ALB helps me with midweek, but no evidence of any decent redevelopment along the coastal plain now. Eevery primary low goes way northwest and stays dominant event under this block I guess. On 2/22/2013 at 8:38 PM, eduggs said: This threat looked great a week out. And the SNE special looked great a week before that. I don't trust long range stuff. Patterns don't deliver. Storms do. Right now the best chance for snow in ENY is tonight through Sunday. The midweek event wants to cut inland. I see rain or possible elevation snow, but that's just guessing. Any bomb beyond that is highly suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Don't shoot me for posting this but the RPM shows an eastern Mass snow bomb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:53 PM, Ryan said: Don't shoot me for posting this but the RPM shows an eastern Mass snow bomb now. Shoot him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 BOX looks like they will be going with a general 4-8" possible in the interior with the potential for that extending down into NRI/ interior SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:53 PM, Ryan said: Don't shoot me for posting this but the RPM shows an eastern Mass snow bomb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On 2/22/2013 at 8:40 PM, dryslot said: If you looked at the Euro qpf map and the GYX snowfall map, Its just about identical .75" or so StormTotalSnowFcst1.png Euro a significant event in eastern areas. http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_grads.asp?mt=12&mod=ecmwfUED&mv0=hgtprs∩=Total%20Precipitation&gs=ecmwfUED_pcp_2&uid=expandedtp&hr=78&map=conus&gv0=A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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