swimmatte Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 34/17 in short pump I'm sitting at 27.2 on my back deck. I'd like to get some precip in asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 i care so little about this winter at this point, that just now was honestly the first time i saw the radar for this storm. looks like another snoozer. my obs are "it's chilly outside" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 We got un-nam'd. Eek. It's nowcast time anyway. Models don't matter anymore. I thought this was the very definition of NAM'd. You knew not to have a lot of faith when the op nam wasn't supported by the srefs, WRFs, or any of the good models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 34/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 At least for around here a 1028, roughly 30.32 is not a snow eater but rather quite good.Roanoke is in the low 40's, some mild air is going to get pushed in, I do not view having a very solid high as a bad thing. Roanoke is in the low 40's but we are cold aloft down here-- it will be sleet and snow down here to start. It may be a sleet snow mix that kicks to snow. It is also moving faster than the models showed. May start here by 1 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Radar sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Still 0.25-0.5 qpf of something down this way. Curious to see what the soundings say again. Going to be a decent event down here-- would not shocked to see some warnings in the am due to sleet. Sleet profiles till noon-- and then curious to see what happens with the temps rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Going to be a decent event down here-- would not shocked to see some warnings in the am due to sleet. Sleet profiles till noon-- and then curious to see what happens with the temps rest of the day. Definitely colder aloft on the 0z NAM out towards LYH through 12hrs. The warm nose is more pronounced on the ROA sounding. Like you said, I'm sorta curious to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Definitely colder aloft on the 0z NAM out towards LYH through 12hrs. The warm nose is more pronounced on the ROA sounding. Like you said, I'm sorta curious to see how this unfolds. It's weird-- we know usually the nam is over done. Short term mods are MORE south. Maybe I'm drunk, (i'm not) but radar looks great. Could creep in our area by 2-3 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Roanoke is in the low 40's but we are cold aloft down here-- it will be sleet and snow down here to start. It may be a sleet snow mix that kicks to snow. It is also moving faster than the models showed. May start here by 1 am. 40 IMBY..what do you make of the update to the WWA.. Up to 2 inches of snow and sleet and .2 inches of ice. Seems like they are hugging the latest NAM on precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 40 IMBY..what do you make of the update to the WWA.. Up to 2 inches of snow and sleet and .2 inches of ice. Seems like they are hugging the latest NAM on precip amounts. Not worried about temps-- good dry later from ground up to 700mb-- I don't get RNK-- new snow map and all the snow is pushed east. How many times did they issues warnings/ advisories WEST of the BR only to expand it east. 2-3 times and it was needed sooner. I know that radar is running into dry air, but like a .half inch to maybe 1.5 of sleet and snow follow by freezing rain. We may get above freezing briefly late PM< but it chill out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Supposedly AVL and surrounding area are getting some good ZR and Sleet already. 28 here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 There's the gut wrenching model run I've been waiting for. Close to a goose egg around Charlottesville and points east. PERSISTENCE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 gfs looks awful next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 First week in March will rock. Guaranteed. Killer -NAO, +PNA its a cant miss. Sun angle be damned. And even if tomorrow's mini front end thump had worked out, what were we really excited about...a half inch of slop followed by a soaking rain on Saturday? March or bust baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 northern virginia east of the mts is so damned cursed that we will not even get an advisory. addin' insult to injury is the stark fact that eastern north carolina almost to the outer banks has an advisory for cryin' out loud. thats pretty hard to beat. we're fooked for sure this winter the reason is this: the rain will hold off until the boundary layer is 33 degrees then we will start off as rain and have plain rain east of the mts. Therefore, my expectations are as follows - I look forward to drizzle tomorrow then steady rain, possibly heavy at times by early Saturday morning. I expect a half inch of rain with this system. Maybe I will even get a coating of rain on my car top!!!!1!!!1! this winter sucks so bad it would make a grown man cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Roanoke is in the low 40's but we are cold aloft down here-- it will be sleet and snow down here to start. It may be a sleet snow mix that kicks to snow. It is also moving faster than the models showed. May start here by 1 am. That's a real broad area of moisture right now in N.GA/WNC. Let's see if the high can eat a lot of it up. I don't think it can. 28.5* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 i'll say this...it's nippy outside, though looking at the radar it looks like we might get the ol' dc splitteroo. i'm impressed by other people's loyalty for snow on here. i think i've lost the drive this winter, at least as far as tracking these storms goes. i'm really surprised at this stretch we've had. then again, we did have one of the warmest years on record, so maybe we expected that type of overall pattern to change too quickly. who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 LWX disco indicates a big split of the precip. Then the coastal forms, by which time we've warmed up, and we get harmless rainfall through Saturday. The coastal takes off, the rain ends for us, we turn cold, SNE gets more snow. rinse and repeat, dca weather is so predictable this winter - you dont need a degree. Forecast rain you nail it nearly every time, unless we get nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks like snow falling in Blacksburg VA area on traffic cams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Time sensitive as of 340am Washington time http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php The Split is already in progress. The western part will move NNE missing us to the NNW. The south part will clip us with a sprinkle; most of it will miss to the south. While the coastal gets going, the boundary layer will go straight to hell. NWS claims that we will only hit 34 Friday. That's crap. We WILL top 40 degrees without breakin a sweat. Hell even if we did top out at 34 degrees on Friday, we'd still see mostly rain to all regular rain. NO WAY we'd get mix! No way in hell. You know the rest. Liquid tonight thru Saturday, then 55 degrees on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Time sensitive as of 340am Washington time http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php The Split is already in progress. The western part will move NNE missing us to the NNW. The south part will clip us with a sprinkle; most of it will miss to the south. While the coastal gets going, the boundary layer will go straight to hell. NWS claims that we will only hit 34 Friday. That's crap. We WILL top 40 degrees without breakin a sweat. Hell even if we did top out at 34 degrees on Friday, we'd still see mostly rain to all regular rain. NO WAY we'd get mix! No way in hell. You know the rest. Liquid tonight thru Saturday, then 55 degrees on Sunday. Did we really expect anything different with how this winter has gone? And of course the 06Z NAM doesn't give us any hope as well with it coming in even dryer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Didn't think the GFS could get any dryer. Guess I was wrong with the 06Z now showing a precip hole around DC and Balt where nothing falls whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wow, went to be thinking radar looked decent- Looks like the bulk grazed us to our south but was a ton of virga or something. Decent wave heading in, but who knows how it will pass. If it rolls up 460 may be a nice burst for a while. Schools closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 30/18 and nothing close per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 clouds and 29* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Radar and sat look awful. I done got NAM'ed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Clouds and 26 in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Light Sleet here temp 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Anyone posting a NAM output from this point forward should be banned. immediately. OBS - we had a 30 second sleet shower here, and now is just a drizzle. 30 seconds of frozen and now rain. Winchester reporting 28F, but that's got to be hogwash. What little bit of frozen precip we got melted on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.