Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I spit out my drink when I saw your avatar. Harerun will bring us good luck. God knows the euro avatar did nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Harerun will bring us good luck. God knows the euro avatar did nothing. Unfortunately, the JMA does not give us a favorable solution for tomorrows storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Barometer has been reasserting itself for several hours after dropping off a good bit earlier today. If the trajectory and speed of the precip mass remains the same then looks like would be to DC by 4-6am. That will have to be interesting as temps should be in a 25-28 range by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I just like looking at the radar. Wintry mix it is I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Barometer has been reasserting itself for several hours after dropping off a good bit earlier today. If the trajectory and speed of the precip mass remains the same then looks like would be to DC by 4-6am. That will have to be interesting as temps should be in a 25-28 range by then. Why are you wanting pressure increases? Isn't that what causes the giant slug of precip on the GFS to go poof? Wouldn't we just want high pressure ne of us? All we need are ne winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 SREF a little wetter but more inline with the Euro compared to prior run a bit more like GFS. I'm shooting for a 0.09 or better at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 nam looks a little slow on sim radar 4-6 seems a bit early but maybe not far into the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 RGEM qpf updates too.. The RGEM is supposedly good. Why would discussing that be desperate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ian scored the first sim radar hallucination. Rap was doing the same thing earlier though. It was definitely a couple hours behind the heavy rain in ky/tn. I wish it would start at 4 am. My yard is already 29. Instant stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM starting to fold a bit. Little drier vs 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The RGEM is supposedly good. Why would discussing that be desperate? 'Supposedly' isn't that strong of an argument. People can use it. I think some get lost in the clutter. For the most part the American models plus Euro and ensembles of all will be more than sufficient for any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM starting to fold a bit. Little drier vs 18z so far looks to have folded a good bit, or should I say a bad bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 looks to have folded a good bit, or should I say a bad bit I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 nam looks a little slow on sim radar nam_namer_000_sim_radar.gif Untitled-26.jpg 4-6 seems a bit early but maybe not far into the morning. I thought we were talking about an afternoon start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Warms up too based on the lighter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a tragic model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 nam again went from wettest model to the driest in 2 runs one day before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm shocked. I thought you'd be totally stunned. It just loves to reel people in and then back off. The mid level and surface ridge are making it tough to get the precip to us. That's why even if the model is too slow, extrapolating radar is probably not gonna work and would bring stuff in too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 We got un-nam'd. Eek. It's nowcast time anyway. Models don't matter anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I thought we were talking about an afternoon start time? These things are often fast at least with some precip of not the heart. I haven't even looked at the NAM yet but seems it would come in on the early side tho some of the precip out front will probably dry out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 We got un-nam'd. Eek. It's nowcast time anyway. Models don't matter anymore. yes they do. Models always outperform nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks pretty much like the Euro. One day the NAM will win that bet.. probably with a squall line in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Actually not a bad run down this way. Still easily between .1 and .25,but now I'm worried about temps. What happened to that cold wedge? 2M 0 line now goes up into freaking PA. Unbelievable what this model does from run to run. Edit: Actually that's just at 21. Snaps right back down at 24 and 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Still 0.25-0.5 qpf of something down this way. Curious to see what the soundings say again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 yes they do. Models always outperform nowcast Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 My observation also comes in the form of a question. Looking at the southern section of the mass is interesting becasue satellite shows a good southern connection with clouds sweeping back toward the pacific. I am wondering if that was, or was not, anticipated. Right now that is a consolidated area down south and usually when the main low flops over on it's back, like it is doing now in midwest, the southern section of the leading edge erodes. It's not errding and I am wondering about the significance and how it might play out?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 41/22 currently. Temp has stayed steady, but DPs are slowly rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm sure somebody will tell me if this observation is bogus. I actually hope they do. By dawn, the NAM has a really good looking sim radar right at my doorstep. It magically goes poof by 15z. It looks like as soon as it hits the 1028 pressure curve modeled by the NAM that that is what does it. ??????. On the 18z run that pressure was lower. Now, using the unisys maps, which I don't even know if they're accurate, the pressure here Is lower here now than its supposed to be by dawn with pressure falls right on my doorstep. Maybe if the pressures in our area are lower than modeled it makes a difference as to how far and how strong the precip stays??????? How many straws did I just pull? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 41/22 currently. Temp has stayed steady, but DPs are slowly rising. 34/17 in short pump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm sure somebody will tell me if this observation is bogus. I actually hope they do. By dawn, the NAM has a really good looking sim radar right at my doorstep. It magically goes poof by 15z. It looks like as soon as it hits the 1028 pressure curve modeled by the NAM that that is what does it. ??????. On the 18z run that pressure was lower. Now, using the unisys maps, which I don't even know if they're accurate, the pressure here Is lower here now than its supposed to be by dawn with pressure falls right on my doorstep. Maybe if the pressures in our area are lower than modeled it makes a difference as to how far and how strong the precip stays??????? How many straws did I just pull? At least for around here a 1028, roughly 30.32 is not a snow eater but rather quite good.Roanoke is in the low 40's, some mild air is going to get pushed in, I do not view having a very solid high as a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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