stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Despite the believe that everybody overreacts to ice, I hated it when I lived in HGR. There is a legitimate concern over it, especially when your job requires you to drive in it, so I hear you. And what fun is it to be in an ice storm with zero power to track it anyway? Now that I don't drive and my lines are underground, I'm not nearly as concerned about being in one. At this point, I wouldn't mind one. I hope I never see 1" of ice, ever. The only time I like ice is when we get a thin coating after we have snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, I know. Sorry if my post came across as too serious. I'm not arguing with anyone that the NAM should be trusted. I just can't understand why changes wouldn't be made to it if it can't be trusted under 24 hours. it's a mesoscale model. it should generally be close within 24 hours but its strength is not winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Seems like the high pressure is already deserting us. I'm at 30.06 so I'm not sure what number you were expecting to see at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Agreed. The good thing is the euphoria only lasts 90 minutes or so until the gfs comes out. I will say this. The NAM got wetter. Wrong on amounts sure but I won't discount the trend. I expect the gfs to follow in the nam footsteps with the trend at least. .2+/- doesn't seem unreachable at all. If you extrapolate the midwest radar loop it looks like were gonna get buried though. Here's a better look at the nam precip. .40 line through dca. Cut it in half and we're still ok for some fun at least. twisternamprecip.JPG I would think the NAM's cold temps in the lower parts of the column would be due, at least in part, to the high precip rates take them out of the equation and it's not so cold hence, if Wes' stats are correct with this system, it should be warmer than what NAM is depicting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I would think the NAM's cold temps in the lower parts of the column would be due, at least in part, to the high precip rates take them out of the equation and it's not so cold hence, if Wes' stats are correct with this system, it should be warmer than what NAM is depicting In response to the post above, I don't see why it matters what our pressure is. The pressures to our northeast are rising rapidly. We want the wind flow to be from the ne, east as a second choice. As for your post, I don't agree with it because I don't see where this warmth is going to come from. Maybe you can convince me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm at 30.06 so I'm not sure what number you were expecting to see at this point Boo for not reducing to sea level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS def warmer and drier at 24 than NAMer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 doh. gfs'd again. C'mon nam! just once man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks for the info Wes. What I don't understand is why that can't be dealt with as part of the program if it is a high bias. You certainly could post process the output to somewhat correct the precipitation amounts. I suspect that is done locally a some offices but have been a way long enough that I could be wrong. The trouble is that it's bias is high but not consistant which makes using a bias corrected product difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 In response to the post above, I don't see why it matters what our pressure is. The pressures to our northeast are rising rapidly. We want the wind flow to be from the ne, east as a second choice. As for your post, I don't agree with it because I don't see where this warmth is going to come from. Maybe you can convince me. SE winds at the surface with the need for cooling to fight winds upstairs from SW http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_024_10m_wnd_precip.gif take away the heavier rates and it won't be as cold otoh, if the NAM is right, then it is that cold I'm thinking NAM is doing its usual precip max 24 hrs+ before the system arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 In response to the post above, I don't see why it matters what our pressure is. The pressures to our northeast are rising rapidly. We want the wind flow to be from the ne, east as a second choice. As for your post, I don't agree with it because I don't see where this warmth is going to come from. Maybe you can convince me. East is a bad direction for most of use, You can survive a little better than we can but ocean temps in winter are above freezing so an east wind brings warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM should fold in 6 hours. Gonna stick with the GFS/Euro combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 gfs is only 75% drier than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM should fold in 6 hours. Gonna stick with the GFS/Euro combo. We start rap'n tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We start rap'n tomorrow morning. lol, you don't want to get too much into its wheelhouse. Its much more fun to look at in the 15-18 hour time ranges when it jumps around but still has some funky qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS even drier than the Euro. Same type of pattern with heaviest SW. NAM cracked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol, you don't want to get too much into its wheelhouse. Its much more fun to look at in the 15-18 hour time ranges when it jumps around but still has some funky qpf. After the RAP watching last weekend that was totally fruitless I'd be tempted to not even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 After the RAP watching last weekend that was totally fruitless I'd be tempted to not even look at it. i actually don't think it has much of a wheelhouse but it gets even funkier in its longer ranges. What is so fitting about the GFS is that while we are cold, we don't get squat. At 48hrs when we get over .10 in 6 hours and aren't far from .25, we are way too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 RGEM a tad wetter than 12z. Model brawl! Ukie dry. 12z NAM wetter than all but one of the 15z SREF members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I sure hope you guys are right about the RAP. After looking fairly promising heading into late tomorrow, it's now heading toward bone dry (at least by the NCEP maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wow, looking at that radar you'd think we were sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I sure hope you guys are right about the RAP. After looking fairly promising heading into late tomorrow, it's now heading toward bone dry (at least by the NCEP maps) Well it being dry doesn't mean it's wrong. The NAM is on its own.. Don't really care about the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wow, looking at that radar you'd think we were sitting pretty. First hallucination of the event goes to.......wnwxluvr!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 First hallucination of the event goes to.......wnwxluvr!! It's only an illusion if I project it forward. It's no hallucination that it looks potent right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well it being dry doesn't mean it's wrong. The NAM is on its own.. Don't really care about the RGEM. Sure, but if it's dry and if it's wrong, we're in business. How's that for logic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'll hug the nam rgem and be a hero if they're right. Anyone who hugs the gfs/euro is a loser whether they're right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You know things are bad when I check the board for the 1st time today and the most common words I see are "NAM" and "GGEM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'll hug the nam rgem and be a hero if they're right. Anyone who hugs the gfs/euro is a loser whether they're right or wrong. These are desperate times. Curse the Euro/GFS even though they are probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You know things are bad when I check the board for the 1st time today and the most common words I see are "NAM" and "GGEM" I spit out my drink when I saw your avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You know things are bad when I check the board for the 1st time today and the most common words I see are "NAM" and "GGEM" RGEM qpf updates too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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