mappy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 27-30 is a massive amount of sleet... damn I wish I knew how to tell its sleet on a model image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I wish I knew how to tell its sleet on a model image Wes, if the NAM is right, isn't that warning criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Verbatim, the NAM is a nasty icestorm (0.3+ QPF) in the SW portion of the LWX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not falling for this. No way, no how, Lucy. But damn look at all that blue. It's mesmerising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Verbatim, the NAM is a nasty icestorm (0.3+ QPF) in the SW portion of the LWX area. Good thing it's the NAM. True NAM QPF is NAM x .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not falling for this. No way, no how, Lucy. But damn look at all that blue. It's mesmerising. Yeah, we've been screwed a couple of times this year by the NAM in our area. A CAD signature that holds on that long on the model rarely verifies without a better high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not falling for this. No way, no how, Lucy. But damn look at all that blue. It's mesmerising. We still have a few more runs. You may get purpled. RAP is definitely wetter in the tn valley than it was early this morning. RGEM says maybe to heaver precip. NAM is the NAM so it needs some support. Anybody check the latest sref's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yes, the NAM verbatim is warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, we've been screwed a couple of times this year by the NAM in our area. A CAD signature that holds on that long on the model rarely verifies without a better high. Idk- a 1032+/- hp in that location is pretty stout. And it's a broad area of hp and not something drifting off the coast as precip approaches. I wouldn't discount the CAD in this particular case. Plus it's cold and dry leading in. It's going in the l-m 20's tonight with low dews. There's a good case for cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM is trolling us again. Nam has a .5 stripe through central va. We're getting nam'd again. I wish the nam came out after the gfs. It's much better getting nam'd than gfs'd. If the NAM can't be trusted at 18-30 hours, it needs to be discontinued. What good is it if that's true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wes, if the NAM is right, isn't that warning criteria? IF it were all freezing rain, but it's a mix so I'm not sure what the criteria would be. Heck I'm not even sure what the ptype would be at the start or when the sounding looks sleetish as the temp at the cloud top is pretty warm.....when the cloud top temp at minus 8C you have a 50 precent chance of freezing rain rather than snow even with all temps of the sounding below freezing. Minus 10 you have a better than 50 chance of snow but it still is not a sure bet. Same holds for sleet. Ouf course, the NAM could be too dry at the higher levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Idk- a 1032+/- hp in that location is pretty stout. And it's a broad area of hp and not something drifting off the coast as precip approaches. I wouldn't discount the CAD in this particular case. Plus it's cold and dry leading in. It's going in the l-m 20's tonight with low dews. There's a good case for cold temps. Amen. I'm not worried about temps and type. Precip. If we get it, we're gonna have fun. If I'm wrong, someone can serve my crow on a paper plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I wish I knew how to tell its sleet on a model image I went off what MN_Transplant said.. he said 27 was sleet so I surmised 30 was sleet. I didnt read the model image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 If the NAM can't be trusted at 18-30 hours, it needs to be discontinued. What good is it if that's true? Hey, I agree 100%, but the NAM ALWAYS does this. It ramps up precip like no other and then it falls in line like 10 hours before an event. I'm not sure why it's like that. It's horrible. And it's cruel, dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Good thing it's the NAM. True NAM QPF is NAM x .25 Is there a basis for that statement with research to back it up? Seems if it were truly that way, that algorithm could be programmed into the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Idk- a 1032+/- hp in that location is pretty stout. And it's a broad area of hp and not something drifting off the coast as precip approaches. I wouldn't discount the CAD in this particular case. Plus it's cold and dry leading in. It's going in the l-m 20's tonight with low dews. There's a good case for cold temps. Good point. I guess these are one of those nights everyone will be watching the mercury drop "faster than modeled" and claiming early victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hey, I agree 100%, but the NAM ALWAYS does this. It ramps up precip like no other and then it falls in line like 10 hours before an event. I'm not sure why it's like that. It's horrible. And it's cruel, dammit! I still don't think there's any real scientific data to support those types of claims. I'm not saying you or anyone else is wrong, you're probably right. This time I'm in bull mode. I won't accept no until tomorrow about 3:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 just for fun. Precip total makes me smile and precip hole makes me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 I went off what MN_Transplant said.. he said 27 was sleet so I surmised 30 was sleet. I didnt read the model image NAM verbatim is FZRA at 00z according to the built-in algorithm. It is really touchy to determine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I still don't think there's any real scientific data to support those types of claims. I'm not saying you or anyone else is wrong, you're probably right. This time I'm in bull mode. I won't accept no until tomorrow about 3:00. HPC keeps stats on the models, I just checked them. For the .25 inch or greater threshold, the one the NAM is predicting, the NAM has a high bias (overpredicts the threshold). It also loses to both the GFS and at 24hr loses to the EUro and GFS. I suspect the euro beats the nam at 36 hrs but HPC does not verify the euro for the time period but it wins at 24 and 48 hrs so I suspect that it wins at 36 hrs too. That said, without a low across the carolinas to intercept moisture, I suspect that the GFS and euro are somewhat too dry but I wouldn't trust the NAM. If you want to be bullish you can take heart in the fact that it could be right as its scores are so low as to completely discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Verbatim, the NAM is a nasty icestorm (0.3+ QPF) in the SW portion of the LWX area. oh good.. "ice storm" talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks to Bendy from PHL... warm air is killer aloft, at least on the soundings I saw for my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 HPC keeps stats on the models, I just checked them. For the .25 inch or greater threshold, the one the NAM is predicting, the NAM has a high bias (overpredicts the threshold). It also loses to both the GFS and at 24hr loses to the EUro and GFS. I suspect the euro beats the nam at 36 hrs but HPC does not verify the euro for the time period but it wins at 24 and 48 hrs so I suspect that it wins at 36 hrs too. That said, without a low across the carolinas to intercept moisture, I suspect that the GFS and euro are somewhat too dry but I wouldn't trust the NAM. If you want to be bullish you can take heart in the fact that it could be right as its scores are so low as to completely discount it. Thanks for the info Wes. What I don't understand is why that can't be dealt with as part of the program if it is a high bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 people still use the nam wrong if they want it to be right on synoptic winter storms outside 24 hours. i'm going to put that on autopost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 people still use the nam wrong if they want it to be right on synoptic winter storms outside 24 hours. i'm going to put that on autopost. Agreed. The good thing is the euphoria only lasts 90 minutes or so until the gfs comes out. I will say this. The NAM got wetter. Wrong on amounts sure but I won't discount the trend. I expect the gfs to follow in the nam footsteps with the trend at least. .2+/- doesn't seem unreachable at all. If you extrapolate the midwest radar loop it looks like were gonna get buried though. Here's a better look at the nam precip. .40 line through dca. Cut it in half and we're still ok for some fun at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Is there a basis for that statement with research to back it up? Seems if it were truly that way, that algorithm could be programmed into the computer. Was joking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Agreed. The good thing is the euphoria only lasts 90 minutes or so until the gfs comes out. I will say this. The NAM got wetter. Wrong on amounts sure but I won't discount the trend. I expect the gfs to follow in the nam footsteps with the trend at least. .2+/- doesn't seem unreachable at all. If you extrapolate the midwest radar loop it looks like were gonna get buried though. yeah it might. my over under on .25" from a few days ago might be good. im so annoyed with winter and people today that i hope we get 1" of ice so it still sucks and everyone loses their power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 yeah it might. my over under on .25" from a few days ago might be good. im so annoyed with winter and people today that i hope we get 1" of ice so it still sucks and everyone loses their power. I hope I never see 1" of ice, ever. The only time I like ice is when we get a thin coating after we have snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Was joking... Yeah, I know. Sorry if my post came across as too serious. I'm not arguing with anyone that the NAM should be trusted. I just can't understand why changes wouldn't be made to it if it can't be trusted under 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Seems like the high pressure is already deserting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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