TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro hates us. RGEM / NAM all the way Again globals have been drier, ggem was .2ish for MTN around here, haven't checked UK, but higher res models have been wetter. Though MN is right on the post below. Whatever, hope for a NAM miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro hates us. RGEM / NAM all the way Damn. Euro is probably gonna win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro looks like .05-1" qpf thru 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro hates us. RGEM / NAM all the way WRF ARW/NMMs aren't great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 smidge more after.. 0.1"+ along potomac and sw basically.. 0.05-.1 north of there. yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 RAP composite sim @ hr 18 looks pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 RAP composite sim @ hr 18 looks pretty sweet. Meh because not a lot of precip at the surface, learn the lesson though I'm sure you're probably joking. I'm thinking we'll get .1 QPF at least, maybe a bit more in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Meh because not a lot of precip at the surface, learn the lesson though I'm sure you're probably joking. I'm thinking we'll get .1 QPF at least, maybe a bit more in the end. Looking dicey. I blame MN for the thread. Euro still gets us a couple tenths of rain with the coastal though so we have that working for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Imagine an all snow event? That would be crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow, just read discussion. Definitely a myriad of ptypes locally tomorrow. Could be quite messy. What time does precip start at BWI? (Sorry I'm mobile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow, just read discussion. Definitely a myriad of ptypes locally tomorrow. Could be quite messy. What time does precip start at BWI? (Sorry I'm mobile) I think the bigger question is does the precip start. 1pm'ish if it does. Never if it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Meh because not a lot of precip at the surface, learn the lesson though I'm sure you're probably joking. I'm thinking we'll get .1 QPF at least, maybe a bit more in the end. I think more than .10 is probably right but think the NAM is probably overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think more than .10 is probably right but think the NAM is probably overdoing it. Agreed Wes, think other models will get wetter and NAM will meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 For what it's worth, a WWA just got posted for part of SW PA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 253 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 PAZ024-025-033-034-221215- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.130222T1300Z-130223T1500Z/ CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...SOMERSET... BEDFORD 253 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL START EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Agreed Wes, think other models will get wetter and NAM will meet in the middle. That is a statement I think that is based on history, but there's no real reason for it to be true. As someone was saying earlier, if a model shows it, it's possible, if not likely. Having said that, the NAM looks pretty good at a glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18z NAM at 27 hrs looks intriguing... hope there is no warm sneaky layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 18z NAM at 27 hrs looks intriguing... hope there is no warm sneaky layer Sleet. Still, the NAM did not back down precip-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM is trolling us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That is a statement I think that is based on history, but there's no real reason for it to be true. As someone was saying earlier, if a model shows it, it's possible, if not likely. Having said that, the NAM looks pretty good at a glance. Nam has a .5 stripe through central va. We're getting nam'd again. I wish the nam came out after the gfs. It's much better getting nam'd than gfs'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 For what it's worth, a WWA just got posted for part of SW PA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 253 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 PAZ024-025-033-034-221215- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.130222T1300Z-130223T1500Z/ CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...SOMERSET... BEDFORD 253 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL START EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. Not sure why we'd care? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 For what it's worth, a WWA just got posted for part of SW PA. . Not a whole lot, since the climate there is much different than ours, not to mention they have elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Sleet. Still, the NAM did not back down precip-wise. 27-30 is a massive amount of sleet... damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol. NAM @ 30 hours. Trolling hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Far from backing down, the 18Z NAM is upping the ante... #nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just in case the impossible becomes possible. 1" of snow and 1" of sleet = streakbreaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I wish the NAM were dependable. Still trolling us at 33 hours. But it's hard to bet against the Euro/GFS when they agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM > RAP > RGEM > GFS > Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Surface temps below freezing all day W of 95. Transitions to freezing rain later. The only reason LWX does not have us in an advisory is because they don't believe the NAM's precip output. So, smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Sleet. Still, the NAM did not back down precip-wise. Look at the soundings at 18 and 00Z, I'm only showing the one at 18Z but they are essentially the same except for the warm layer. The tricky thing is the depth of the clouds and cloud top temps. They make it tough call to know what ptype to go with. Snow or freezing rain at the onset and then sleet or freezing rain 3 hours later. It may be one of those deals where ptype depends on intensity and how deep the clouds get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I wish the NAM were dependable. Still trolling us at 33 hours. But it's hard to bet against the Euro/GFS when they agree. I would say overdone on precip but temps are more likely than euro/gfs. Maybe not quite so cold but closer than the globals. If you look at 700 the NAM is believable in some ways but we've been down this path before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.