WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 He's going to have ice much longer than we will, but I don't think he's going to get much more in the way of snow. Warm nose is around 700-800mb and CAD can't help that much. Prefaced: NAM numbers At 24 hours, I'm below freezing at all levels. At 30, my only level above freezing is 800 and it is 0.9 degrees. At 36, I'm above at 800 and 850. I would think I'd get a 12 to 10 hour window of possible snow? Of course, it doesn't have precip until the last 5 hours or so of that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You're right about Winchester, they look like sleet more than snow. The warm layer gets them. It will be interesting to see if the sounding trend colder there. This may seem (be) a stupid question, but at what level does the precip usually start? And, how warm and how deep does a layer have to be in order to cause snow to convert to sleet/freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Prefaced: NAM numbers At 24 hours, I'm below freezing at all levels. At 30, my only level above freezing is 800 and it is 0.9 degrees. At 36, I'm above at 800 and 850. I would think I'd get a 12 to 10 hour window of possible snow? Of course, it doesn't have precip until the last 5 hours or so of that window. Maybe if you could post the sounding...your hour 30 precip type would depend on the depth of that warm layer. If it's pretty shallow, you might be able to stay snow (rimed flakes probably), but more likely it's sleet by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This may seem (be) a stupid question, but at what level does the precip usually start? And, how warm and how deep does a layer have to be in order to cause snow to convert to sleet/freezing rain? It all has to do with the warm layer and whether it gets above 1C. Once it does, you almost always get sleet, when it gets to above 3C, you get rain if you have a nice cold layer that will them supercool the droplet so it freezing on contract. To get snow in the lowest layer you need the temps to get to lower than -8C if i remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Damn, GFS has the freezing line all the way into central NC at 24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A beautiful 1035 high....and we're still gonna get the screw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 And of course, we get GFS'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It is a colder run than 0z or 6z, but still really dry. <0.1" of QPF for everyone except CHO and point south/west. Edit...and it looks like sleet for just about everyone except at the very start. Warm nose at 800mb over everyone by 21z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gotta love the NAM in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Maybe if you could post the sounding...your hour 30 precip type would depend on the depth of that warm layer. If it's pretty shallow, you might be able to stay snow (rimed flakes probably), but more likely it's sleet by then. I don't have a sounding. All I have is the text data. If you know of a place where I could get a sounding for KOKV, I'd appreciate it. I can barely interpret those things though. So me having one is mostly a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't have a sounding. All I have is the text data. If you know of a place where I could get a sounding for KOKV, I'd appreciate it. I can barely interpret those things though. So me having one is mostly a waste.Twisterdata.com. Click near you on the map.An NWS site has a pretty good primer on winter soundings lemme see if I can find itX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It is a colder run than 0z or 6z, but still really dry. <0.1" of QPF for everyone except CHO and point south/west. It is dry, but it is a little wetter than the previous two runs. Of course, I'm going off of contours, so the differences might be very slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Twisterdata.com. Click near you on the map. An NWS site has a pretty good primer on winter soundings lemme see if I can find itX Thanks, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 last night's euro is really dry for all. Nobody over .06 before temps go to hell. .30 rain with the coastal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks, Ian. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php (a really good page overall) And more if a general what is (actually not the useful maybe): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/index.html http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_HowTo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Man...check out how different the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS look at the surface at 18h. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It is a colder run than 0z or 6z, but still really dry. <0.1" of QPF for everyone except CHO and point south/west. Edit...and it looks like sleet for just about everyone except at the very start. Warm nose at 800mb over everyone by 21z tomorrow. It dries out so quickly aloft that it could end up as freezing drizzle providing the surface temp is below freezing at 7PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It dries out so quickly aloft that it could end up as freezing drizzle providing the surface temp is below freezing at 7PM tomorrow. Right on, Wes. 21z sounding looks like sleet, but by 0z Saturday it's probably -fzdz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 RGEM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Higher res models are wetter, with globals drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It is a colder run than 0z or 6z, but still really dry. <0.1" of QPF for everyone except CHO and point south/west. Edit...and it looks like sleet for just about everyone except at the very start. Warm nose at 800mb over everyone by 21z tomorrow. 0.1 on the NAM equals zip in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Some of the SNE regulars praise the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Some of the SNE regulars praise the rgem. RGEM isn't a bad model from what I understand from mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 RGEM isn't a bad model from what I understand from mets. Then the only 2 things left to do is hug it and book it. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 The RGEM looks like a slightly drier and colder version of the NAM. Keeps north central MD all snow. It interestingly has a point where some of the MD suburbs of DC go to sleet and then back to snow with better rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The RGEM looks like a slightly drier and colder version of the NAM. Keeps north central MD all snow. It interestingly has a point where some of the MD suburbs of DC go to sleet and then back to snow with better rates.Taking it fwiw, and its worth more than most think 4dvar, gem just upgraded, and it is pretty hires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Some of the SNE regulars praise the rgem. they're probably confused since it's easier for them to accidentally get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 they're probably confused since it's easier for them to accidentally get snow Good point. I'm not confused about purposefully not getting snow. It's a way of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0.1 on the NAM equals zip in reality. That was the GFS. NAM gave us >0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro hates us. RGEM / NAM all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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