MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A day away. Might as well have a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol no one needs to speak for anyone. there was never a rule about starting threads.. the problem was when people started them 6 days out. the rest is silly superstition. tho we're probably being nam'ed... plus the time of day is going to be a problem around me at least. NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 DCA area soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 it's a cold sfc run even into dc. it prob starts as snow but from 30-36 there's a warm layer in there. nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, probably snow-to-sleet. Byebye 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, probably snow-to-sleet. Byebye 2" Hey, at least it's frozen. But it's the NAM. Prep for heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hey, at least it's frozen. But it's the NAM. Prep for heartbreak. You'd have to be emotionally invested for heartbreak. This is the person at the bar that flirts with you for a little while, but then leaves with someone else (Worcester). Bummer, but not soul-crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 this run does delay that warm nose quite a bit compared to last night at least. if you're in the winterwxluvr school that's a trend that could keep on giving. nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 sleet might be better than snow. light snow at 33 at 1pm is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nam jokes aside, the hp nosing down in canada has been there for runs of all models. It's cold outside now. Antecedent airmass is cold going in along with a 1030+hp flexing it's muscles as precip arrives. GL low isn't that strong either. It's not going to be a waa machine pushing the hp out of the way. It's a pretty standard battle of airmasses and in this case I would hedge on the colder aim mass winning for a time at least. I'm more concerned about precip but we did just get nam'd so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Heh, I just actually looked at the NAM. Wedge is in there longer than I thought. We just need some good precip. I wish that great lakes low would just collapse and die quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Heh, I just actually looked at the NAM. Wedge is in there longer than I thought. We just need some good precip. I wish that great lakes low would just collapse and die quicker. Considering the beast it once was on the models it's become a kitten already (all things considered). 700 looks "ok" for a period of "ok" rates. I love a good nam'ing in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Remember when the Euro was showing 6-12" or 4-8" of front-end snow with this? *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nam jokes aside, the hp nosing down in canada has been there for runs of all models. It's cold outside now. Antecedent airmass is cold going in along with a 1030+hp flexing it's muscles as precip arrives. GL low isn't that strong either. It's not going to be a waa machine pushing the hp out of the way. It's a pretty standard battle of airmasses and in this case I would hedge on the colder aim mass winning for a time at least. I'm more concerned about precip but we did just get nam'd so... Dusting to 1"... The forecast of a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 sleet might be better than snow. light snow at 33 at 1pm is going to be ugly. Is that freezing rain 8pm on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Dusting to 1"... The forecast of a winner. On a more realistic note, hard to argue with that. I could see 1-2" for folks farther north like Hoffman, our York county neighbors and maybe Phin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 On a more realistic note, hard to argue with that. I could see 1-2" for folks farther north like Hoffman, our York county neighbors and maybe Phin. Probably 1-2" as usual somehow at TU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This looks like an inch of snow.. then maybe up to a tenth inch of ice on top... then it all gets blown away Saturday morning by the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My thinking (cue Ian) is that the cold will still overperform. It's cold. The ground is cold. The low is 1000 miles away. Where's all this warming supposed to come from. The NAM trend (cue Ian) is wetter. However, Ian is right, it's the NAM. Randy is right, it's the NAM and probably just lining us up for kick number 100 on the season. But, it IS possible. AND ...........last Wed when the soundings were flying around like crazy saying it couldn't snow because it was too warm........what was the result..........that's right.............an all snow event everywhere except sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This looks like an inch of snow.. then maybe up to a tenth inch of ice on top... then it all gets blown away Saturday morning by the rain If I get an inch with some ice on top, I'll be happy given how this winter has gone. it's nearing the point where I start to tire of the cold if its not useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The NAM has our whole area at or above 0.25 by tomorrow evening. And it has my temps not leaving the 20's until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My thinking (cue Ian) is that the cold will still overperform. It's cold. The ground is cold. The low is 1000 miles away. Where's all this warming supposed to come from. The NAM trend (cue Ian) is wetter. However, Ian is right, it's the NAM. Randy is right, it's the NAM and probably just lining us up for kick number 100 on the season. But, it IS possible. AND ...........last Wed when the soundings were flying around like crazy saying it couldn't snow because it was too warm........what was the result..........that's right.............an all snow event everywhere except sea level. ive kinda silently liked this one for a few days at least tempwise..tho it's still gonna be lame imo. just don't be upset when we get .07=-.11" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 4km NAM suggests 2m temps are well below freezing and we get a good little slug of moisture down towards C and SWVA. Doesn't look like nearly as much makes it up into the DC area in the later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 If I get an inch with some ice on top, I'll be happy given how this winter has gone. it's nearing the point where I started to tire of the cold if its not useful. It will be a very shortlived ice/snow "event"... and I am assuming ice from 36-42 because the 2m temps are 30-32 around the area and 850s go slightly above 0... with no heavy rates, i would expect light freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My thinking (cue Ian) is that the cold will still overperform. It's cold. The ground is cold. The low is 1000 miles away. Where's all this warming supposed to come from. The NAM trend (cue Ian) is wetter. However, Ian is right, it's the NAM. Randy is right, it's the NAM and probably just lining us up for kick number 100 on the season. But, it IS possible. AND ...........last Wed when the soundings were flying around like crazy saying it couldn't snow because it was too warm........what was the result..........that's right.............an all snow event everywhere except sea level. I think you're in a good spot. Us, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think you're in a good spot. Us, naso much. He's going to have ice much longer than we will, but I don't think he's going to get much more in the way of snow. Warm nose is around 700-800mb and CAD can't help that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 ive kinda silently liked this one for a few days at least tempwise..tho it's still gonna be lame imo. just don't be upset when we get .07=-.11" liquid I wish I could say that I won't, but I will. That ticks me off more than any other aspect of this crap winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It will be a very shortlived ice/snow "event"... and I am assuming ice from 36-42 because the 2m temps are 30-32 around the area and 850s go slightly above 0... with no heavy rates, i would expect light freezing rain The soundings say sleet not freezing rain. The question is whether the NAM rates and amounts are right or not. I haven't seen the Euro, how much qpf did it and last night's 06Z GFS have on us? Back to the west, they'll probably see snow for much of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I haven't seen the Euro, how much qpf did it and last night's 06Z GFS have on us? Not sure about the Euro, but 0z and 6z GFS were both very dry (<=0.1" or so) and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not sure about the Euro, but 0z and 6z GFS were both very dry (<=0.1" or so) and warm. You're right about Winchester, they look like sleet more than snow. The warm layer gets them. It will be interesting to see if the sounding trend colder there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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