Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I see hints of warmth on the LR GFS. Woooohoooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 How many times has that been written this winter. Today is interesting, but dry. Jan 25 was interesting, but dry. Feb. 4-5 was interesting, but dry. And I'm sure the next interesting period will be interesting but......... Well I guess I should have been more specific. Perhaps I should have said the meteorology behind next's week deep trough looks interesting and left the word pattern out of the equation. In all seriousness and some may disagree this upcoming period is the best look we've had all season. Whether we cash in or not, well your guess is as good as mine but that doesn't diminsh the potential. When you're in a terrible rut like we are its obvious to assume the same results will occur with each period that shows some promise but at some point it has to change. By the way, when I say it has the best look, I'm talking in terms of getting one moderate event, not a blockbuster storm or multiple storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I see hints of warmth on the LR GFS. Woooohoooo. Oh I see...we can believe the 384hr GFS when it shows a big ridge? GFS probably breaks down the ULL/-NAO combo too fast. You see how it all goes to hell as soon as truncation hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I see hints of warmth on the LR GFS. Woooohoooo. I pray that you are correct. The sooner there are no "chances" and no "interesting patterns", the quicker my mental health will return. I think it's in the other thread where Wes posted some winter snow totals from a stretch of winters in the 50's. It made me think that it's really amazing that when we look for long range threats, we never see an opportunity, much less get one, where we get 0.25-0.35 precip events with cold around. We aren't talking about big events, but we can't get enough precip for 2 or 3 inches. I find that to be truly remarkable from a weather perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Oh I see...we can believe the 384hr GFS when it shows a big ridge? GFS probably breaks down the ULL/-NAO combo too fast. You see how it all goes to hell as soon as truncation hits. It's probably wrong. Euro ens mean is still chilly/blocky thru 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's probably wrong. Euro ens mean is still chilly/blocky thru 360. Woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I love that we are in a more favorable pattern now with coastals forming, and we have to deal with yet another Great Lakes low pressure. If it weren't for the continuous screwjob from those all season, we would all be a little less nuts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The beat continues. Euro says cold air gets out of the way before precip arrives early next week (ji isn't happy). Still shows an area of qpf hr156+ but surface temps are blazing. Gets nice and cold and dry after that. good times good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The beat continues. Euro says cold air gets out of the way before precip arrives early next week (ji isn't happy). Still shows an area of qpf hr156+ but surface temps are blazing. Gets nice and cold and dry after that. good times good times so that low off the Carolina Coast at 144 is not producing snow? I could care less about the Tuesday storm. Ill be in california. No storms through 240?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 from lawrence cosgrove: he 12z operational European model is -slowly- bringing into focus the major winter storm threat for next week. The equation follows a shortwave which digs around the core cAk vortex in the Great lakes and Ohio Valley, producing what appears to be a long-lived storm that hammers New England late next week (and very likely other parts of the Eastern Seaboard on its way there, but the earlier panels seem unfocused). Yes, this is snow and wind we are talking about, along with a nice cold shot which looks to keep averages for the first week of March below normal east of the High Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The beat continues. Euro says cold air gets out of the way before precip arrives early next week (ji isn't happy). Still shows an area of qpf hr156+ but surface temps are blazing. Gets nice and cold and dry after that. good times good times Any front-end love on Tuesday? Glad to see a 970mb low parked off Cape Cod on Day 7. BOS has to break the record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 so that low off the Carolina Coast at 144 is not producing snow? I could care less about the Tuesday storm. Ill be in california. No storms through 240?? Temps suck. We're in the 40's. Run only out to 180. Massive ridge in the west but trough here is too broad. bad axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The beat continues. Euro says cold air gets out of the way before precip arrives early next week (ji isn't happy). Still shows an area of qpf hr156+ but surface temps are blazing. Gets nice and cold and dry after that. good times good times At least there is a 970 bomb near the benchmark for New England. They've suffered enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Any front-end love on Tuesday? Glad to see a 970mb low parked off Cape Cod on Day 7. BOS has to break the record! Boston area gets destroyed. I don't have totals but it looks like a solid beat down of snow. Low off NC coast that grazes us with showers basically backs right into Boston area. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 from lawrence cosgrove: the core cAk vortex Larry must have a very generous definition of cAk (that's continental arctic air that's colder than the terrain it's passing over for those who don't know). -6C 850 temperatures and surface temps in the 40s in February don't scream "cAk" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Crazy axis @ 500. Basically runs positive tilt from texarkana to cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Boston area gets destroyed. I don't have totals but it looks like a solid beat down of snow. Low off NC coast that grazes us with showers basically backs right into Boston area. Sheesh. how do we get this to destroy us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 how do we get this to destroy us? move to boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 how do we get this to destroy us? lol- we do get destroyed but it's our hopes and dreams. Still the same scenario I talked about earlier. The sw that pops the coastal needs to amplify earlier. I can't tell with euro maps but it's prob the same as the gfs. gets squished under the medicine ball and doesn't amplify until off the coast. It's still something to watch because the ull is far from resolved. The run doesn't really do much to cause any optimism verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Boston area gets destroyed. I don't have totals but it looks like a solid beat down of snow. Low off NC coast that grazes us with showers basically backs right into Boston area. Sheesh. sure, I'm here and yes, I'm watching, but I don't see how anything changes through the end of this "winter" for us Bob the NINA is alive and well over the last month; technically La Nada, but so close the atmosphere doesn't know the diff. over -.1 - .3C 1&2 3 3.4 4 02JAN2013 23.3-0.4 25.0-0.4 26.3-0.3 28.4 0.1 09JAN2013 23.7-0.4 24.8-0.7 26.0-0.6 28.3 0.0 16JAN2013 24.1-0.4 25.0-0.6 26.0-0.6 28.1-0.2 23JAN2013 24.2-0.6 25.3-0.5 26.4-0.2 28.2 0.0 30JAN2013 24.8-0.5 25.1-0.9 26.1-0.5 28.1 0.0 06FEB2013 25.4-0.2 25.5-0.7 26.2-0.5 28.1-0.1 13FEB2013 25.9-0.1 25.9-0.4 26.4-0.3 28.1 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sits off Cape Cod and lazily drifts eastward as it becomes vertically stacked. I don't have QPF numbers but I can guess just looking at 500 and the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 hr 216 pushes the 850 0c line to Veracruz mexico and surface freezing to the tx/la gulf coast. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sits off Cape Cod and lazily drifts eastward as it becomes vertically stacked. I don't have QPF numbers but I can guess just looking at 500 and the surface 1.06" qpf for one of the 6 hour periods, but then the 7 days is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 1.06" qpf for one of the 6 hour periods, but then the 7 days is over It's showing measurable for almost 30 hours. 2"+ for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sits off Cape Cod and lazily drifts eastward as it becomes vertically stacked. I don't have QPF numbers but I can guess just looking at 500 and the surface It actually does a 360 degree loop around the benchmark for a 36 hr period. 976mb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I wouldn't be jumping on this run if I lived up there though. The track of the low is very unusual. It will probably happen anyway but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I wouldn't be jumping on this run if I lived up there though. The track of the low is very unusual. It will probably happen anyway but still. From an outsider's perspective this February for them has been like our Feb 2010...the dice are loaded and you keep rolling 7's no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 From an outsider's perspective this February for them has been like our Feb 2010...the dice are loaded and you keep rolling 7's no matter what happens. Atmospheric memory! Just like the Nov coastals were a harbinger for us but different. lol If you look at the 500 panels from 132-156 it does show opportunity for amplification at our latitude. Moreso than the gfs. The sw is pretty far in the future too. My confidence is minimal but the period shouldn't be ignored. We'll probably get a set of dream runs on Sun-Mon and then watch it go poof. If it does look better, I vote for no damn storm thread until the snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 hr 216 pushes the 850 0c line to Veracruz mexico and surface freezing to the tx/la gulf coast. heh Excellent - I'll be in Nawlins.. Best chance of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's showing measurable for almost 30 hours. 2"+ for sure. feet of snow for days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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