clskinsfan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I want to edit my last post. Tampa, FL may get a 2" storm before DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 1-2 inches Tuesday before change over on euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hmm euro day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 1-2 inches Tuesday before change over on euro? Good call. Need the vort to amp though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 6z doesnt have nearly as much CAD as the euro for Tues. Can only watch it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Cross-polar flow coming... the first 20 days of March should be cold to very cold to seasonal average...looks like a real SNOstorm could be in the cards...stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Cross-polar flow coming... the first 20 days of March should be cold to very cold to seasonal average...looks like a real SNOstorm could be in the cards...stay tuned. Can you elaborate on why you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Can you elaborate on why you think that? Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2 dear god, please, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm surprised nobody mentioned last nights euro. .50+/- precip Fri-Sat next week. Same setup I was talking about earlier in the thread. Vort / weak lp form underneath the medicine ball to our nw. I'm not letting go on this one. Laser will be out by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 what befuddles me is how ENE can still get snow when they have a closed 5H Low over the GL, north of their latitude it's a rainer for us any time the 5H is west and north of our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm surprised nobody mentioned last nights euro. .50+/- precip Fri-Sat next week. Same setup I was talking about earlier in the thread. Vort / weak lp form underneath the medicine ball to our nw. I'm not letting go on this one. Laser will be out by Sunday night. I wondered if we got anything from that. I just assumed no. Magical things can happen when a 500mb closed low goes to your south. Unfortunately, the ensembles say no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2 dear god, please, no. We should allow everyone to offer their thoughts and forecasts provided they can back it up with sound meteorological sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm surprised nobody mentioned last nights euro. .50+/- precip Fri-Sat next week. Same setup I was talking about earlier in the thread. Vort / weak lp form underneath the medicine ball to our nw. I'm not letting go on this one. Laser will be out by Sunday night. per Accuwx text of Euro, surface temps are ablaze IAD is +7C at 1PM and +4C at 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I wondered if we got anything from that. I just assumed no. Magical things can happen when a 500mb closed low goes to your south. Unfortunately, the ensembles say no dice. I wouldn't really expect the ens to show much. It's pretty subtle and small precip max. Op shows weak low pressure (1008) over NC tracking nw off the coast and strengthening (modestly). We're kinda in the bullseye for precip. Big closed ull just parked and spinning. GFS was showing something similar but now it's showing the big medicine ball squash the vort. Both globals agree on energy tracking from the pac nw and zipping underneath the closed low. It's just something to keep and eye on. These setups aren't all that complicated. Just need the vort to not get squished to pieces. I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 per Accuwx text of Euro, surface temps are ablaze IAD is +7C at 1PM and +4C at 7PM I saw that mitch but who really cares? If you look at the panels it tells a different story. You have 1028hp to the N and a 1008 lp off the carolina coast. Decent n flow and cold enough air around. The surface freezing line jumps from hgr to canada to back while this is taking place. I don't even know why I'm analyzing surface temps. It's 7 days away and 12+ brand new solutions to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Huge 500mb closed low overhead, raging -NAO, raging +PNA, raging -AO and Euro says we're in the upper 40s. Why am I not surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I wouldn't really expect the ens to show much. It's pretty subtle and small precip max. Op shows weak low pressure (1008) over NC tracking nw off the coast and strengthening (modestly). We're kinda in the bullseye for precip. Big closed ull just parked and spinning. GFS was showing something similar but now it's showing the big medicine ball squash the vort. Both globals agree on energy tracking from the pac nw and zipping underneath the closed low. It's just something to keep and eye on. These setups aren't all that complicated. Just need the vort to not get squished to pieces. I'm all in. Definitely an interesting period setting up, but last night's Euro was kinda bizarre. The surface depiction was very weird between hours 144 and 186. Vort comes down and then precip instantly starts blossoming in central apps. Then all of a sudden enhances but basically has very little movement east then fades out completely only to magically reappear and smash eastern New England again. At the very least it will give us something to follow, can't give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Huge 500mb closed low overhead, raging -NAO, raging +PNA, raging -AO and Euro says we're in the upper 40s. Why am I not surprised? Because we... Wait, you're not going to make me say it, are you? The "S" word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Huge 500mb closed low overhead, raging -NAO, raging +PNA, raging -AO and Euro says we're in the upper 40s. Why am I not surprised? What's really weird is the fact that it's pretty chilly then flips to warmish from 156-162. But the at the same time there's a closed 534 contour centered over the ohv, 1008 lp off carolina coast, and a 1028hp in ne canada. Even my simple mind can look at that and question it. Long story short. We break the streak on Fri-Sat. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 We should allow everyone to offer their thoughts and forecasts provided they can back it up with sound meteorological sense Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2 better chance of a KU tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What's really weird is the fact that it's pretty chilly then flips to warmish from 156-162. But the at the same time there's a closed 534 contour centered over the ohv, 1008 lp off carolina coast, and a 1028hp in ne canada. Even my simple mind can look at that and question it. Long story short. We break the streak on Fri-Sat. Yay! how much are you calling for?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 how much are you calling for?? lol- at this point it's over under on snow vs no snow. I'll call for snow but that includes conversational flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 lol- at this point it's over under on snow vs no snow. I'll call for snow but that includes conversational flakes. I still think we have off and on SHSN for a few days from Feb 28-Mar 5 or so if the general pattern develops as expected. Hopefully something like the Bob Chill shortwave can get a little organized and create some more substantial precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Definitely an interesting period setting up, but last night's Euro was kinda bizarre. The surface depiction was very weird between hours 144 and 186. Vort comes down and then precip instantly starts blossoming in central apps. Then all of a sudden enhances but basically has very little movement east then fades out completely only to magically reappear and smash eastern New England again. At the very least it will give us something to follow, can't give up yet. How many times has that been written this winter. Today is interesting, but dry. Jan 25 was interesting, but dry. Feb. 4-5 was interesting, but dry. And I'm sure the next interesting period will be interesting but......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I still think we have off and on SHSN for a few days from Feb 28-Mar 5 or so if the general pattern develops as expected. Hopefully something like the Bob Chill shortwave can get a little organized and create some more substantial precip. I hope you're right, but good luck with that. By the way, is there a hole in the atmosphere over the GL region? Low pressure seems parked there permanently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I hope you're right, but good luck with that. By the way, is there a hole in the atmosphere over the GL region? Low pressure seems parked there permanently. I just want to nuke that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Maybe the Euro's surface temps weren't out to lunch. GFS has the surface freezing line up near Hudson Bay (I shat you not) next Thursday afternoon. Probably upper 40s near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS sort of goes Bob Chill on one of the vort complexes going under the ULL and validates my forecast for on and off SHSN SHRASN for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 craptastic pattern (that's a scientific term). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS sort of goes Bob Chill on one of the vort complexes going under the ULL and validates my forecast for on and off SHSN SHRASN for a few days. Euro is more bullish with precip. I'm huggin it until the 12z tells me not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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