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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion


TUweathermanDD

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I'm surprised nobody mentioned last nights euro. .50+/- precip Fri-Sat next week. Same setup I was talking about earlier in the thread. Vort / weak lp form underneath the medicine ball to our nw. I'm not letting go on this one. Laser will be out by Sunday night.

I wondered if we got anything from that.  I just assumed no.  Magical things can happen when a 500mb closed low goes to your south.  Unfortunately, the ensembles say no dice.  

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I'm surprised nobody mentioned last nights euro. .50+/- precip Fri-Sat next week. Same setup I was talking about earlier in the thread. Vort / weak lp form underneath the medicine ball to our nw. I'm not letting go on this one. Laser will be out by Sunday night.

per Accuwx text of Euro, surface temps are ablaze

IAD is +7C at 1PM and +4C at 7PM

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I wondered if we got anything from that.  I just assumed no.  Magical things can happen when a 500mb closed low goes to your south.  Unfortunately, the ensembles say no dice.  

 

 

I wouldn't really expect the ens to show much. It's pretty subtle and small precip max. Op shows weak low pressure (1008) over NC tracking nw off the coast and strengthening (modestly). We're kinda in the bullseye for precip. Big closed ull just parked and spinning.

 

GFS was showing something similar but now it's showing the big medicine ball squash the vort. Both globals agree on energy tracking from the pac nw and zipping underneath the closed low. It's just something to keep and eye on. These setups aren't all that complicated. Just need the vort to not get squished to pieces. I'm all in. 

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per Accuwx text of Euro, surface temps are ablaze

IAD is +7C at 1PM and +4C at 7PM

 

I saw that mitch but who really cares? If you look at the panels it tells a different story. You have 1028hp to the N and a 1008 lp off the carolina coast. Decent n flow and cold enough air around. The surface freezing line jumps from hgr to canada to back while this is taking place. I don't even know why I'm analyzing surface temps. It's 7 days away and 12+ brand new solutions to get there. 

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I wouldn't really expect the ens to show much. It's pretty subtle and small precip max. Op shows weak low pressure (1008) over NC tracking nw off the coast and strengthening (modestly). We're kinda in the bullseye for precip. Big closed ull just parked and spinning.

 

GFS was showing something similar but now it's showing the big medicine ball squash the vort. Both globals agree on energy tracking from the pac nw and zipping underneath the closed low. It's just something to keep and eye on. These setups aren't all that complicated. Just need the vort to not get squished to pieces. I'm all in. 

Definitely an interesting period setting up, but last night's Euro was kinda bizarre. The surface depiction was very weird between hours 144 and 186. Vort comes down and then precip instantly starts blossoming in central apps. Then all of a sudden enhances but basically has very little movement east then fades out completely only to magically reappear and smash eastern New England again. At the very least it will give us something to follow, can't give up yet.

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Huge 500mb closed low overhead, raging -NAO, raging +PNA, raging -AO and Euro says we're in the upper 40s.  Why am I not surprised?  

 

What's really weird is the fact that it's pretty chilly then flips to warmish from 156-162. But the at the same time there's a closed 534 contour centered over the ohv, 1008 lp off carolina coast, and a 1028hp in ne canada. Even my simple mind can look at that and question it.

 

Long story short. We break the streak on Fri-Sat. Yay! 

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What's really weird is the fact that it's pretty chilly then flips to warmish from 156-162. But the at the same time there's a closed 534 contour centered over the ohv, 1008 lp off carolina coast, and a 1028hp in ne canada. Even my simple mind can look at that and question it.

 

Long story short. We break the streak on Fri-Sat. Yay! 

how much are you calling for??

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lol- at this point it's over under on snow vs no snow. I'll call for snow but that includes conversational flakes. 

I still think we have off and on SHSN for a few days from Feb 28-Mar 5 or so if the general pattern develops as expected.  Hopefully something like the Bob Chill shortwave can get a little organized and create some more substantial precip.  

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Definitely an interesting period setting up, but last night's Euro was kinda bizarre. The surface depiction was very weird between hours 144 and 186. Vort comes down and then precip instantly starts blossoming in central apps. Then all of a sudden enhances but basically has very little movement east then fades out completely only to magically reappear and smash eastern New England again. At the very least it will give us something to follow, can't give up yet.

 

How many times has that been written this winter.

 

Today is interesting, but dry.  Jan 25 was interesting, but dry.  Feb. 4-5 was interesting, but dry.  And I'm sure the next interesting period will be interesting but.........

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I still think we have off and on SHSN for a few days from Feb 28-Mar 5 or so if the general pattern develops as expected.  Hopefully something like the Bob Chill shortwave can get a little organized and create some more substantial precip.  

 

I hope you're right, but good luck with that.

 

By the way, is there a hole in the atmosphere over the GL region?  Low pressure seems parked there permanently.

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