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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion


TUweathermanDD

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The ggem is a horrid model. We are getting desperate.

I am sure most everyone knows by now but the GGEM just has a big upgrade, it improved its resolution and initialization, so it's going to be on par with the Euro from now on, IMO.

http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/genots/2013/02/07/NOCN03_CWAO_071810___00179'>http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/genots/2013/02/07/NOCN03_CWAO_071810___00179

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I am sure most everyone knows by now but the GGEM just has a big upgrade, it improved its resolution and initialization, so it's going to be on par with the Euro from now on, IMO.

http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/genots/2013/02/07/NOCN03_CWAO_071810___00179

 

Glad you pointed this out. I think a lot on people here didn't know this. Well, let's see what happens, if by some chance it nails the 240 hour threat we might have a new sheriff in town  :snowing:

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I am sure most everyone knows by now but the GGEM just has a big upgrade, it improved its resolution and initialization, so it's going to be on par with the Euro from now on, IMO.

http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/genots/2013/02/07/NOCN03_CWAO_071810___00179

 

It had an upgrade but that doesn't mean it will be as good as the GFS, UKMET or Euro.  It's always better to wait until you actually see a model perform before getting too excited about an upgrade.  At least that has been my experience over the years.  Improvements are usually incremental

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It had an upgrade but that doesn't mean it will be as good as the GFS, UKMET or Euro.  It's always better to wait until you actually see a model perform before getting too excited about an upgrade.  At least that has been my experience over the years.  Improvements are usually incremental

 

Good point....I "think" the Euro's resolution is 25km too which is why I said it should be on par, but we will have to wait and see.  Or is the Euro 28km, I can't remember.

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Nevermind. I think I see what the difference is. If I follow the logic of the GFS, the NAM at 700 looks like it would transfer the energy much sooner from the primary over the Kansas/Missouri area to the southern stream energy over the Southeast. The GFS does this, but it appears a little too late for us.

I know I shouldn't extrapolate the NAM, but if I take a split between what it may lead to and what the GFS is showing around 9z Tuesday, I would say that is ok for now.

Someone please correct me. I am learning.

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I think our future winter discussions should completely omit temperatures. What's the point? What does it take to get precip here? A 980 low sitting off the Carolina coast. A warmup to the 60's and a massive cold front? Are there no other ways?

We might have to wait for a leesburg04 event in summer or fall. As long as we hit avg for a 2 yr stretch its all good.
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That pattern might produce snow for us (east of the mtns) but I don't recall seeing it do so in any great way. I'd lean to it ending up more like the weekend system in the end tho it could be a further west version.

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are people still buying into the canard that a storm is going to magically appear and blossom over us?

 

Probably not. But there is a hell of a lot of stuff going on over the next couple of weeks. Would it really be a surprise if one of those vorts breaks the 2" streak? I dont think so. I think the DCA hell streak ends by March 10th. But I'm a weenie of momentous proportions.

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