WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 DC needs 5" to not have the worst three winter streak on record for snow. Puts it in perspective doesn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 DC needs 5" to not have the worst three winter streak on record for snow. not a chance beating that record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The ggem is a horrid model. We are getting desperate. I am sure most everyone knows by now but the GGEM just has a big upgrade, it improved its resolution and initialization, so it's going to be on par with the Euro from now on, IMO. http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/genots/2013/02/07/NOCN03_CWAO_071810___00179'>http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/genots/2013/02/07/NOCN03_CWAO_071810___00179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I am sure most everyone knows by now but the GGEM just has a big upgrade, it improved its resolution and initialization, so it's going to be on par with the Euro from now on, IMO. http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/genots/2013/02/07/NOCN03_CWAO_071810___00179 Glad you pointed this out. I think a lot on people here didn't know this. Well, let's see what happens, if by some chance it nails the 240 hour threat we might have a new sheriff in town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I am sure most everyone knows by now but the GGEM just has a big upgrade, it improved its resolution and initialization, so it's going to be on par with the Euro from now on, IMO. http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/genots/2013/02/07/NOCN03_CWAO_071810___00179 It had an upgrade but that doesn't mean it will be as good as the GFS, UKMET or Euro. It's always better to wait until you actually see a model perform before getting too excited about an upgrade. At least that has been my experience over the years. Improvements are usually incremental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 DC needs 5" to not have the worst three winter streak on record for snow. I'm actually rooting for that since it would make an interesting tidbit for a story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm actually rooting for that since it would make an interesting tidbit for a story. I'll root for any extreme weather. I hope the worst predictions of AGW come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm actually rooting for that since it would make an interesting tidbit for a story. If it's gonna snow it might as well be 12+. A 5" storm will just take away our right to complain, not actually stop us from complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Even if the ggem is on par with the gfs/euro, does that mean anything at all irt to a d10 threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It had an upgrade but that doesn't mean it will be as good as the GFS, UKMET or Euro. It's always better to wait until you actually see a model perform before getting too excited about an upgrade. At least that has been my experience over the years. Improvements are usually incremental Good point....I "think" the Euro's resolution is 25km too which is why I said it should be on par, but we will have to wait and see. Or is the Euro 28km, I can't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Even if the ggem is on par with the gfs/euro, does that mean anything at all irt to a d10 threat? How many d10 threats have pounded us with snow on d1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 How many d10 threats have pounded us with snow on d1? Lately how many Day 4 snow threats have pounded us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lately how many Day 4 snow threats have pounded us? I don't think we've had any d4 threats. Maybe v-day? By the time we get inside of 4 days were already talking no precip, bl issues, and car toppin it. We live in a special place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I am no weather expert, but the NAM looks pretty good at the end of its run. 500 looks a lot better than the 18z GFS. We need to get that 500 closed low beneath us, yes? Or will it be a secondary low that forms in the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Good point....I "think" the Euro's resolution is 25km too which is why I said it should be on par, but we will have to wait and see. Or is the Euro 28km, I can't remember. The euro is currently T1279 which is around 14 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nevermind. I think I see what the difference is. If I follow the logic of the GFS, the NAM at 700 looks like it would transfer the energy much sooner from the primary over the Kansas/Missouri area to the southern stream energy over the Southeast. The GFS does this, but it appears a little too late for us. I know I shouldn't extrapolate the NAM, but if I take a split between what it may lead to and what the GFS is showing around 9z Tuesday, I would say that is ok for now. Someone please correct me. I am learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 IMO people should really stop using the NAM at 84 for winter storm prognostication. I know it's there but it's not often useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 IMO people should really stop using the NAM at 84 for winter storm prognostication. I know it's there but it's not often useful. Yeah. Desperate I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I think our future winter discussions should completely omit temperatures. What's the point? What does it take to get precip here? A 980 low sitting off the Carolina coast. A warmup to the 60's and a massive cold front? Are there no other ways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I think our future winter discussions should completely omit temperatures. What's the point? What does it take to get precip here? A 980 low sitting off the Carolina coast. A warmup to the 60's and a massive cold front? Are there no other ways?We might have to wait for a leesburg04 event in summer or fall. As long as we hit avg for a 2 yr stretch its all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS seems to be more amped through 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Things at h5 and sfc are mighty different on the 0z GFS vs 18/12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The crazy giant vortex of death over the lakes is tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks like the transfer from the primary to the secondary happens sooner. Not bad at hour 108. Surface kinda sucks, but good QPF. Seems like a good trend, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 That pattern might produce snow for us (east of the mtns) but I don't recall seeing it do so in any great way. I'd lean to it ending up more like the weekend system in the end tho it could be a further west version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The crazy giant vortex of death over the lakes is tricky. We really need that to be further south and west, don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 are people still buying into the canard that a storm is going to magically appear and blossom over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 are people still buying into the canard that a storm is going to magically appear and blossom over us? Isn't that what Harerun is here for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 are people still buying into the canard that a storm is going to magically appear and blossom over us? Probably not. But there is a hell of a lot of stuff going on over the next couple of weeks. Would it really be a surprise if one of those vorts breaks the 2" streak? I dont think so. I think the DCA hell streak ends by March 10th. But I'm a weenie of momentous proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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