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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion


TUweathermanDD

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putting the "always day 10" stuff aside.. the op at least shows a good signal can still bring nothing to us. 

 

the 12z mean is slightly better tho it still keeps the best odds to our north... and it's still just dry and chilled thru 360.

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When did I become the optimist?

 

it seems when people find a window they generally don't let go till it's really apparent.

 

i mean, it looks good... but i'd still bet we don't cash in if i had to bet. this game has gotten tiring. you seemed to not be around much early winter so maybe you still have some life in you.

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it seems when people find a window they generally don't let go till it's really apparent.

i mean, it looks good... but i'd still bet we don't cash in if i had to bet. this game has gotten tiring. you seemed to not be around much early winter so maybe you still have some life in you.

We have more broken windows this year than an inner city crack house

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We have more broken windows this year than an inner city crack house

i think we're perhaps more likely to see something sneak up than waiting for the perfect storm. though obviously time is limited on both.

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i think we're perhaps more likely to see something sneak up than waiting for the perfect storm. though obviously time is limited on both.

Pretty much agree. Odd sure look good for mixing a couple things together next couple weeks. No warm-up in sight. March could end up being cooler than Dec. Kidding but not really.

I'm pretty hooked on the vort next week. 18z is thinking about making it big but the Ull may squish it. I keep thinking this is the one.

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GFS ensemble are now tanking the AO right after first of March....I agree with Ian I think the storm is going to sneak up on us without much model recognition

Sadly we could probably get an outlier event for as much as another month or so. At this pt gotta sorta hope we flip warm by Mar 10-15 at least for a week or two so we can get off this ride.

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it seems when people find a window they generally don't let go till it's really apparent.

i mean, it looks good... but i'd still bet we don't cash in if i had to bet. this game has gotten tiring. you seemed to not be around much early winter so maybe you still have some life in you.

Your right. I would bet we don't either but I would put our chances at getting a decent snow out of this pattern at maybe 20%. That's enough to keep me interested and hope alive.

I wasn't around much due to weather and life. Got elected union rep for my school and coaching debate plus joined a soccer league so busy. Plus I knew early on we were in bad shape till feb/mar. We had that one week around the holidays but even that was a long shot. The last couple weeks we have had chances just been unlucky to some degree. Luck has to change sometime.

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We don't have time for a reboot. Climo has changed. March 10 is the new apr 1.

yeah.. i have a hard enough time believing in early march snow but it is probably still possible post mar 15, at least in theory. tho you'd need 25 things to work together and we haven't been able to get 5 to do so. i keep looking for signs of some warmth but don't see any really. my fear is all we get out of this is some excuse to drive ourselves crazy for a few more weeks. but, you're right that some of it is luck.. eventually we have to get lucky.

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The 12z GGEM (which is about as perfect as you can get) actually focuses most of its energy on a shortwave which the GFS/EURO crush.

 

The arrow here is pointing to the progged shortwave that the GGEM eventually uses to create the mega storm at day 8-10. The image is the GFS, if you follow the rest of the run the GFS crushes this wave, while the GGEM ends up keeping it strong, lifting the the low over the east to 50/50 position and creating an absolutely epic scenario. 

 

SO right now models are showing 3 potential waves. 1) The storm at 120hrs 2) Wave right behind that 3) Wave just off Pacific coast

 

Bottom line, root for GGEM ;)

 

post-8091-0-65503000-1361486957_thumb.gi

 

GGEM @ same time period:

 

post-8091-0-91933900-1361487020_thumb.gi

 

And...the epic end of the GGEM run. 

 

post-8091-0-45969700-1361487061_thumb.gi

 

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I mean, in all honesty, there's a lot of **** going on in the long range with individual shortwaves.  IMO, I think 120 hours should be watched closer than it is...NAM has a totally different look than the GFS...and the models are flipping with every run and keying in and then crushing s/w.   Chaos is usually good for us.

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Yeah Randy, I just made that post because a lot of people see a huge storm on the GGEM, but don't realize its a different wave that forms the storm than the ones the EURO tries to form. While models do suck in the long range the one thing they can be good at his at least figuring out wave lengths. I think we would want shortwave #2 to catch up with the first one, lift out, and the 3rd one to be as strong as GGEM shows...

 

But who knows...all we can do right now is wait and see. 

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Oh, head over to wxcaster and dig into the 249.5 day cfs broken out on 6 hour panels. You can get your fist severe fix too. That model is like a pipe that never stops burning.

Lots of drug references today Bob. You sure you're ok?

The CFS2 is the most useless tool I've seen yet. If any proof is needed, look at its Oct 29 forecast of Nov temps.

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Lots of drug references today Bob. You sure you're ok?

The CFS2 is the most useless tool I've seen yet. If any proof is needed, look at its Oct 29 forecast of Nov temps.

Lol- I have been cracking a lot of crack jokes. Maybe i need help. I'm sure there's a pill for that.

Cfs 6hr panels are good entertainment though. I think accuwx should expand on their 30 day forecast and go 249. Quality is the same. Why not?

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