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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion


TUweathermanDD

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What's an absolutely weird run. Decaying ull absorbs the vort in the south and creates a close 540 contour stretching from TN to LI. I think we can go ahead and toss this one. There is no freekin way it goes down like this. 

it's like the worst good overall pattern run ever. some light precip breaks out around 180!

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Yea, there's like a massive cold pool aloft. Like the size of 9 states. Instability squalls? Heck, I have no idea. 

it just keeps getting weirder as it runs too. at 198 there is a big area of light precip over the southeast. good stuff.

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Big ole rain bomb for me.. secondary tracks just west of DC. Could be a good one for the mtns.

GFS was a coastal plains runner as well, and while 850 temps looked decent for the mountains, the near-surface is an absolute torch on the GFS with the surface freezing line in Canada.  Is Euro colder?  

 

I can't tell 100% but it sure looks like we get into some wrap around from the ull @ 144

Once that big ULL forms, I think we get instability snow showers off and on for a few days.  Doubt they amount to much, but I could easily see a few cartoppers in the mix. 

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GFS was a coastal plains runner as well, and while 850 temps looked decent for the mountains, the near-surface is an absolute torch on the GFS with the surface freezing line in Canada.  Is Euro colder? 

 

pretty much the same on the whole tho it has some pockets in wv that arebelow freezing. drops like 8-16"' in the mtns up into new england.

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GFS was a coastal plains runner as well, and while 850 temps looked decent for the mountains, the near-surface is an absolute torch on the GFS with the surface freezing line in Canada.  Is Euro colder?  

 

Once that big ULL forms, I think we get instability snow showers off and on for a few days.  Doubt they amount to much, but I could easily see a few cartoppers in the mix. 

 

I think the more remarkable (and probably less believable thing) is the fact that the closed ull passes basically overhead, hits a stone wall, starts swelling to massive proportions, absorbs a vort coming out of the south, then becomes the size of the entire eastern third of the country. 

 

It carves a trough as big as pd-bust but it does it backwards. I've watched a lot of model runs the last 6 years. I can't say I've seen one like this.

 

Needless to say, the block is wreaking havoc on solutions. Who knows how it's going to shake out. 

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Running the 500 panels does pique some interest even though it's low low prob. The bowling ball in the mw basically gets pushed right over us by the block instead of continuing to cut. I suppose it's possible for that ull to pass further south and have re-development further south. Talking slim odds here but I don't think we can just dismiss the euro completely with the way it handles the closed low. 

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Running the 500 panels does pique some interest even though it's low low prob. The bowling ball in the mw basically gets pushed right over us by the block instead of continuing to cut. I suppose it's possible for that ull to pass further south and have re-development further south. Talking slim odds here but I don't think we can just dismiss the euro completely with the way it handles the closed low.

Jay Hatem Weather is all in until 0z

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Low in the Gulf forming at 240 on the Euro?   :yikes:  Reaching here...

 

With mega-blocking and some big s/w's in the flow, the solutions are going to be wild.  I'd still forecast Feb 28-March 5 as cold with scattered snow showers for now.  

 

P.S.  How does that big baggy low at 192 give us NOTHING?  

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And to add to the wackiness. 850 freezing line pushes all the way to lake okeechobee @ 216.

 

Not what bass fisherman want to here.  It is a strange looking run.  Even if we end up getting a better evolution and storm, boundary layer problems are likely to mess things up with the funky evolution with the low to the north. 

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Low in the Gulf forming at 240 on the Euro?   :yikes:  Reaching here...

 

With mega-blocking and some big s/w's in the flow, the solutions are going to be wild.  I'd still forecast Feb 28-March 5 as cold with scattered snow showers for now.  

 

P.S.  How does that big baggy low at 192 give us NOTHING?  

 

The feb 28 to March 5 timeframe does look interesting as the D+11 superens you showed early has a really nice look to it and at these time ranges, the real solution for individual days may not even be one of the ens member look. 

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The feb 28 to March 5 timeframe does look interesting as the D+11 superens you showed early has a really nice look to it and at these time ranges, the real solution for individual days may not even be one of the ens member look. 

when is your fishing trip? That might be our best hope

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Not what bass fisherman want to here.  It is a strange looking run.  Even if we end up getting a better evolution and storm, boundary layer problems are likely to mess things up with the funky evolution with the low to the north. 

 

Wes, it's a crazy run from 120 on all the way to the end. I think it's more a factor of the euro saying "hey, that's a nasty wall of denial between ME and Greenland and figuring out how the features below it evolve is practically impossible at this point". 

 

The tough is deep as crap for early march but the axis still stinks for us. Luckily it's definitely going to look very different for many runs to come. Maybe we accidentally get some snow, break the streak, flip to torch, and go bass fishin. 

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it's like the worst good overall pattern run ever. some light precip breaks out around 180!

It remains so close to popping something for our area.  Problem is it has vorts swinging around the pinwheel all over the place and nothing consolidates.  I like the look and think as we get closer there is a good chance one of these can take over and amplify.  I also think the usual bias at this range is to be too deep with h5 features and if you relax that pinwheel a bit we can get something going.  This pattern still holds potential. 

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