psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We pretend March 2001 didn't happen. I saw the '93 reference, but the superstorm was a full 10 days later... Our chance at a big storm may come at the tail end of this pattern also. I know getting into mid March is really a long shot for most of us...but thats just how the timing looks to be working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 He is a spin master and plays on the assumption that most poeple do not have the knowledge to know when he is feeding them BS. He is finally admitting at least that his mid atlantic forecast is in big trouble if something doesnt change. No matter what his temp forecast will bust, and he needs a miracle to back door his way to a verification on snowfall. But what he implies with those dates is misleading at best since 1969 did nothing for us, and the 2010 analogs showing up are mostly from late Feb and March, AFTER the snowy period for us...during the period where NY and New England cashed in. Neither of those analogs is encouraging at all for the mid atlantic which is the area he admits he needs help and tries to imply the ensembles show it is coming. The only analog popping up recently that has promise for our area is the March 1960, that was a 22" snowfall month at BWI. Most of what JB says anymore is manipulative and spin with a sprinkling of truth to make it seem belieavable. well if bastardi is going to say the ensembles say "lookout" he should show via twitter exactly what the ensembles are showing, not just what he thinks they're saying. What a croc. He is misleading at best. He keeps showing the EC snowfall map to justfy his forecast, why not show the ensembles. I wont even go into his global warming babble. or psu wrestling talk!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Has anyone seen the ECMWF ensembles? I know it's JB (take with a grain of salt), but I'm curious to see what he is getting at. Just a few mins ago he posted: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi http://Weatherbell.com snow forecast has had New England and now plains verified. Mid atlantic left to fill in.ECMWF ensembles say lookout! Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Of the 1200 possible candidates for D plus 8, D plus 11 in the super analog package, NINE are from great end game yrs of 2010,1969! Amazing He is a spin master and plays on the assumption that most poeple do not have the knowledge to know when he is feeding them BS. He is finally admitting at least that his mid atlantic forecast is in big trouble if something doesnt change. No matter what his temp forecast will bust, and he needs a miracle to back door his way to a verification on snowfall. But what he implies with those dates is misleading at best since 1969 did nothing for us, and the 2010 analogs showing up are mostly from late Feb and March, AFTER the snowy period for us...during the period where NY and New England cashed in. Neither of those analogs is encouraging at all for the mid atlantic which is the area he admits he needs help and tries to imply the ensembles show it is coming. The only analog popping up recently that has promise for our area is the March 1960, that was a 22" snowfall month at BWI. Most of what JB says anymore is manipulative and spin with a sprinkling of truth to make it seem belieavable. He's still relevant if people are writing essay posts about him, good or bad. Keep it up - he loves the attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I just put the 500 panels side by side of the last 4 runs of the gfs @ same point in time using 12z hr 150 as the starting point. I'm pretty intrigued with the setup. Big medicine ball spinning in se canada and a fairly decent vort coming around underneath. Verbatim it gets a bit squashed but the trend is certainly good. 12z puts us in a .1+ precip swath with all snow temps. Weak surface low pops in front of the vort and takes a decent track. It has trended wetter each subsequent run and the ul flow keeps getting better to allow more amplification. Yea, the whole thing could go poof. We all know this. But I'm liking the consistency here. This is the kind of setup that does the magical 1-3 / 2-4 without temp problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The vort diving down and running underneath the closed ull on the 28th is still there and getting juicier every run. If the placement of the features is close to what has been modeled next week then this is then one to do it. Moreso than any of these convoluted gl / secondary crapfests that are queued up the next 5 days. The guidance wont pick up on that feature well until much closer because its being overshadowned by the dominant low over the lakes/New England. I still think there is some potential for that to become more significant as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 He's still relevant if people are writing essay posts about him, good or bad. Keep it up - he loves the attention. Who cares what he thinks, some people might believe his crap and we are informing them, and I am having a little fun with it. FUN, remember the whole point of this board. One thing going forward, the GFS continues to school the Euro this winter on general pattern recognition and major synoptic storm track in the day 5-10 range, but once inside 100 hours the Euro has been leading the way with recognizing the specifics and nailing down the details. The last several systems, in the 2-4 day range the euro has been the first to sniff out some major changes and the GFS/NAM tend to follow a few runs later. This seems to be happening again with the New England event this weekend, last night the EC backed off significantly on that event for places away from the coast, and now today the NAM/GFS seem to be following its lead. With all the "euro sucks right now" talk keep that in mind. In the long ranges it has been a mess, but it is still picking up details in the mid range better IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Who cares what he thinks, some people might believe his crap and we are informing them, and I am having a little fun with it. FUN, remember the whole point of this board. One thing going forward, the GFS continues to school the Euro this winter on general pattern recognition and major synoptic storm track in the day 5-10 range, but once inside 100 hours the Euro has been leading the way with recognizing the specifics and nailing down the details. The last several systems, in the 2-4 day range the euro has been the first to sniff out some major changes and the GFS/NAM tend to follow a few runs later. This seems to be happening again with the New England event this weekend, last night the EC backed off significantly on that event for places away from the coast, and now today the NAM/GFS seem to be following its lead. With all the "euro sucks right now" talk keep that in mind. In the long ranges it has been a mess, but it is still picking up details in the mid range better IMHO. the 0Z GFS did cut back on NE's total last night too and the 6Z went a bit further NAM continues to struggle both long and short term vs. other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Where is the active pattern you guys promised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Where is the active pattern you guys promised? We're about to get over an inch of rain from 2 different coastals. What more do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm right next door to both you guys. Kids and I would be in! Is there a good hill? Man I hope we can at least cover the grass tips! Centennial Park ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Where is the active pattern you guys promised? Look at the 240 hours Euro and GFS. They have a HUGE PNA ridge, trough digging to China in the perfect spot... and a -NAO. The biggest problem I see on both right now, is they are spreading out the energy. Just looking at the 240 H5 on last nights Euro...something is so close to blowing up on the east coast, and it would be far enough south for us...but there is a vort right over us, another one at the base of the trough down near the gulf coast, and another one diving in the back side. Now it is very possible that there really are too many vorts competing and they all cancel each other out and run interference and nothing happens. BUt is is also possible the model is simply having trouble deciding which one will consolidate the energy and bomb out. If one of those can become dominant and take over...we will have a storm. That still does not guarantee anything, we would have to get lucky with track...but I do not believe the "nothing will happen" solution on the models last night. I think something will develop in the March 1-10th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 the 0Z GFS did cut back on NE's total last night too and the 6Z went a bit further NAM continues to struggle both long and short term vs. other models GFS has not been far behind, but it does tend to be a little shower to pick up on these changes, and the NAM is a mess with details, bouncing around with every solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The Euro ens mean past 240 has continued to just be cool/cold and dry thru 360.. still almost no precip in the US in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Where is the active pattern you guys promised? I am still waiting for that PD3 that you promised us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The Euro ens mean past 240 has continued to just be cool/cold and dry thru 360.. still almost no precip in the US in that period. Even the 12z GFS is fairly dry for that period, just some light stuff around the Lakes and intermountain West for the most part. Has one low in the southern Plains that produces some decent precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We pretend March 2001 didn't happen. I saw the '93 reference, but the superstorm was a full 10 days later... Yea can we ban talk of March 2001 please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yea can we ban talk of March 2001 please? was that the storm that was supposed to be a phase between the pv and a low coming up the coast, sitting over midatlantic, just spinning for a day or two?? Otherwise I dont remember that one!!!Getting old, memeory isnt what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 How come nam snowfall total to sun feb 24 shows about 2-4 in ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro a smidge warmer so far for tue event but it's also transferring quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Big ole rain bomb for me.. secondary tracks just west of DC. Could be a good one for the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro a smidge warmer so far for tue event but it's also transferring quicker. that and a massive difference @ 500. closed ull just to our sw this run....what does this mean...hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Though euro goes w with primary, h5 has some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I can't tell 100% but it sure looks like we get into some wrap around from the ull @ 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 that and a massive difference @ 500. closed ull just to our sw this run....what does this mean...hmmm yeah.. big shift from 12z. backlash??!!?! heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 funky run.. so different than last night with the big 500 feature. storm runs into block and decays just to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 funky run.. so different than last night with the big 500 feature. storm runs into block and decays just to our north. Yea, I don't think we can read too much into this. This is a really huge shift in the ul's. My maps make my eyes hurt so I'm not going through the exercise of comparing panel by panel from 0z. Just something to watch. Oh, and how about the vort down over ok/tx border..heh...heh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ji should be here any minute....precip breaking out over ar/la.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yea, I don't think we can read too much into this. This is a really huge shift in the ul's. My maps make my eyes hurt so I'm not going through the exercise of comparing panel by panel from 0z. Just something to watch. Oh, and how about the vort down over ok/tx border..heh...heh.. im sure that leftover mess around us will screw it up somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just not enough space between the waves on Day 6-8....What a different run compared to 00z though...shows the EUROs lack of continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 im sure that leftover mess around us will screw it up somehow. What's an absolutely weird run. Decaying ull absorbs the vort in the south and creates a close 540 contour stretching from TN to LI. I think we can go ahead and toss this one. There is no freekin way it goes down like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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