WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Weenie post: If the GFS ends up being right for really the first time over the EURO, thats just the last stab in our backs, final middle finger to us by this crappy winter. Wow! Still 5 days out though. Lol Dec 26, Jan 25, just to throw out a quickie. I agree with WxUSA, the Euro has given me days and days and feet and feet of snow this year. GFS has just said screw you at 7+ days and held the course all the way through the storm (or lack thereof). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well, I saw the 500 and vort panels... Phase or more luck than we've had in 2 years is required... Not apples to apples but the ull that was poised to rake nc last month ended up further north and those changes came just a couple days before the event. I know it's not a great comparison but relatively vigorous ulls end up with a further north track more often than not. IIRC- we had hard core confluence to our n with that system. Brick wall style. And even then it just scraped our southern zone when nothing was expected just 2 days before the event. I'm pretty much expecting future runs to back off on the surpressive solutions but idk if we can get this to phase in time or at all. Luckily, there's plenty of time and nothing is set in stone. Let's hope the dream run holds off till monday though. lol GFS ns vorts seem to always end up north of where modeled a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The sheer copious amounts of QPF showing up in the CCB part of the storm are awesome. It shows the potential of this storm. If all the pieces come together it would be awesome....Ji you have a link to the new NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Here you go https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GGEM for what its worth is a total phase but its off in its own planet about how the whole thing evolves, basically instead of phasing the northern vort into the southern one, it phases the manitoba mauler into the northern h5 low and thus the whole things lifts up into the lakes. I would say its on crack except that sounds all too familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the JMA shows just like the GFS unfortunately. Remarkable consensus 7 days out. Dosent mean much of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the JMA shows just like the GFS unfortunately. Remarkable consensus 7 days out. Dosent mean much of course Really shows how much easier it is for models to "see" down the road when there's a block. It's been a while. With that being said, models will likely move in relative tandem going forward as block and ull to our N are better resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the JMA shows just like the GFS unfortunately. Remarkable consensus 7 days out. Dosent mean much of course The models were lock step with each other on the last one at 72+ hours. I even made a post about it. I think it does mean something. It means the odds aren't in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 00z 27th was the best euro run. Has trended se since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The models were lock step with each other on the last one at 72+ hours. I even made a post about it. I think it does mean something. It means the odds aren't in our favor. notice that as each run gets closer to the event, the run gets worse not better. Thats been the theme of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 weird part is the most progressive models(the Nogaps and GGEM are the most amplified..north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The models were lock step with each other on the last one at 72+ hours. I even made a post about it. I think it does mean something. It means the odds aren't in our favor. Damn, this is a sad time. Our best and most optimistic cheerleader is defeated. Is this where we are? Has it come to this???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Larry Cosgrove who hyped up the March 1-3 event is calling the March 6-8 event a total non deal due to lack of blocking If it ends up being a miss it will be because of the block and that it is located a little too far south and west. weaken the associated trough to our northeast or move it more to the east and we might be in play. Right now it looks like the block is going to be too strong and too far west but it still is not a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 notice that as each run gets closer to the event, the run gets worse not better. Thats been the theme of the winter I agree with this as well. The only storm that didn't follow that theme was the Dec 26 storm. However, all trends and cycles get broken. It may or may not be this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Here you go https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All navgem shows what we need for an above average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If it ends up being a miss it will be because of the block and that it is located a little too far south and west. weaken the associated trough to our northeast or move it more to the east and we might be in play. Right now it looks like the block is going to be too strong and too far west but it still is not a done deal. Ha! That makes me proud. I said exactly the same thing 3 hours ago. I did see something correctly for once. I can quit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Damn, this is a sad time. Our best and most optimistic cheerleader is defeated. Is this where we are? Has it come to this???? The only thing I'm smart enough to look for is concensus and numbers. When I see a bunch of models in one area, it makes me think they are correct. That has led me to think something good was going to happen when it didn't. So maybe this time it works for us. As others have said, it's still a long way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 weird part is the most progressive models(the Nogaps and GGEM are the most amplified..north) What was the trend of the NOGAPS from 0z to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Ha! That makes me proud. I said exactly the same thing 3 hours ago. I did see something correctly for once. I can quit now. Good for you, you're learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Even if we get the storm who's to say it's snow? I feel like we've all become stupider in the past two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Even if we get the storm who's to say it's snow? I feel like we've all become stupider in the past two years. True, the air mass isn't that cold so we still could get screwed especially if the precip falls during the day. Plus we need the precip to be on the heavy side. I suspect most here are aware of the problems but the system is the only game in town and could be our last chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Even if we get the storm who's to say it's snow? I feel like we've all become stupider in the past two years. That quack Henry M on Accuweather said big storm next week, rain for DC area though. He might finally be right...unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Even if we get the storm who's to say it's snow? I feel like we've all become stupider in the past two years. stupider and desperater are different. 850 0c line says snow tho. Not sure what you're lookin at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 stupider and desperater are different. 850 0c line says snow tho. Not sure what you're lookin at. That's at 5000 feet or so, we need the surface to be cold. That is less certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I suspect most here are aware of the problems but the system is the only game in town and could be our last chance. This. I think most of us know how to read a map and distinguish ptypes. I think we're just trying to get a storm FIRST and then figure it out from t here. It's desperate but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 That's at 5000 feet or so, we need the surface to be cold. That is less certain. I need to take a funnier class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GFS: Full Phase EURO except farther North: March 1958 in PA Morgantown 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This. I think most of us know how to read a map and distinguish ptypes. I think we're just trying to get a storm FIRST and then figure it out from t here. It's desperate but it is what it is. I wouldn't bet on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Good news i think. The euro control which had been consistenly south of the OP European is now more north of it and although it dosent hit us...it does show a historic storm for SE Virginia. Its sooooooo close. Heavy precip as far north as Fredricksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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