Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 for not phasing, it is really close to turning the corner in time...it gets snow to DC but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Haha - he's spent all morning giving examples on his FB page of how and why the GFS is out to lunch... Timing is a bit diff, but evolution is pretty much the same as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the Nogaps is a HECS:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 156 its off the NC coast... very close but no cigar, right where we want it 156 is a very large number...its more than 7 days out. The threat is much more important than the details right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 for not phasing, it is really close to turning the corner in time...it gets snow to DC but not much Yeah, it's too close to totally give up on. But one can say it walked over to the GFS' idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Yeah, it's too close to totally give up on. But one can say it walked over to the GFS' idea. completely...they are super close to each other now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'm encouraged to stay the course. Now off to DC. Looking forward to many more model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the Nogaps is a HECS:( This will sound stupid, but that may be a big signal. That is a major continuity shift isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 completely...they are super close to each other now I'm not at a pc for a while. How does it compare to the gfs irt the closed low to our n? If it's not going to phase we gotta pray it turns the corner a gets blocked from going quietly out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Looks like the confluence also hurt some... we need it to be a bit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Weenie post: If the GFS ends up being right for really the first time over the EURO, thats just the last stab in our backs, final middle finger to us by this crappy winter. Wow! Still 5 days out though. Lol I think the GFS has generally outperformed the Euro past Day 5 this winter. Euro had the big coup on the SNE blizzard, but otherwise, I think GFS has done as well or better. Yeah, it's too close to totally give up on. But one can say it walked over to the GFS' idea. How will DT spin this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Larry Cosgrove who hyped up the March 1-3 event is calling the March 6-8 event a total non deal due to lack of blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'm not at a pc for a while. How does it compare to the gfs irt the closed low to our n? If it's not going to phase we gotta pray it turns the corner a gets blocked from going quietly out to sea. it moves east more quickly which is probably part of the reason the euro is further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 it moves east more quickly which is probably part of the reason the euro is further north Just for reference, do get dusted from this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Just for reference, do get dusted from this run? sprinkles +4C-6C bl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 it moves east more quickly which is probably part of the reason the euro is further north I had a feeling that feature would become the traffic director (with an unphased solution). I'm not sure which is better to root for. Phasing is nice and all but fraught with timing issues. Getting something to turn the corner is probably just a little better but not by much. The phasing the euro was showing isn't really the kind of evolution we like in these parts. A ns sw probably has more wiggle room to juice up and turn for us than some sort of capture. If this was a more classic ns/ss phase setup I wouldn't never say that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I think the GFS has generally outperformed the Euro past Day 5 this winter. Euro had the big coup on the SNE blizzard, but otherwise, I think GFS has done as well or better. How will DT spin this? **** ALERT *** ALERT *** 12Z THURS RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HOLDS COURSE... SIILL SHOWS MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL FOR VA... southern DELMARVA ...northwest and north central NC ...eastern KY and southern WVA .. and POSSIBLY .. ** POSSIBLY ** into souther MD DCA metro area.. this makes for the 10th consecutive model run that the European has showed this system affecting these areas and the 5th run consecutive model run that has the Low BOMBING out into a major system as you can see THIS run of the Euro Model HAMMERS western and central and northwest NC with over a foot of snow and that moves into se THIRD of VA. THIS IS A MODEL not MY forecast. It is STILL possible the heavy snow gets into northwest and northeast VA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I had a feeling that feature would become the traffic director (with an unphased solution). I'm not sure which is better to root for. Phasing is nice and all but fraught with timing issues. Getting something to turn the corner is probably just a little better but not by much. The phasing the euro was showing isn't really the kind of evolution we like in these parts. A ns sw probably has more wiggle room to juice up and turn for us than some sort of capture. If this was a more classic ns/ss phase setup I wouldn't never say that though. we want a phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 **** ALERT *** ALERT *** 12Z THURS RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HOLDS COURSE... SIILL SHOWS MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL FOR VA... southern DELMARVA ...northwest and north central NC ...eastern KY and southern WVA .. and POSSIBLY .. ** POSSIBLY ** into souther MD DCA metro area.. this makes for the 10th consecutive model run that the European has showed this system affecting these areas and the 5th run consecutive model run that has the Low BOMBING out into a major system as you can see THIS run of the Euro Model HAMMERS western and central and northwest NC with over a foot of snow and that moves into se THIRD of VA. THIS IS A MODEL not MY forecast. It is STILL possible the heavy snow gets into northwest and northeast VA.... Just saw this. He also did a 3-4 post rant about his Euro superiority complex. I've got about 75" of Day 7 Euro snow on the year. Hopefully can top 90" before the end of met Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 we want a phase lol- i just want 2" @ dca and close the curtains. we've been on the short end of phasing for years now but i guess it used to happen so it can still happen. maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 this run is terrible compared to the last three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 **** ALERT *** ALERT *** 12Z THURS RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HOLDS COURSE... SIILL SHOWS MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL FOR VA... southern DELMARVA ...northwest and north central NC ...eastern KY and southern WVA .. and POSSIBLY .. ** POSSIBLY ** into souther MD DCA metro area.. this makes for the 10th consecutive model run that the European has showed this system affecting these areas and the 5th run consecutive model run that has the Low BOMBING out into a major system as you can see THIS run of the Euro Model HAMMERS western and central and northwest NC with over a foot of snow and that moves into se THIRD of VA. THIS IS A MODEL not MY forecast. It is STILL possible the heavy snow gets into northwest and northeast VA.... OMG...I thought you were parodying him - lol. And then I went to his FB page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 for not phasing, it is really close to turning the corner in time...it gets snow to DC but not much It phases just a lot later then the last few runs. It misses the phase at first, not pulling the northern h5 system into it over the ohio valley, but then it does split a pieice of that northern stream h5 off and then phase it down into it at the last minute. Its kind of a half phase from where it was with the full phase solutions before. It was a step towards the GFS though overall...and the GFS is not budging much. Given the bias of the euro to over phase, and that not much else is going with as much phasing, I think rooting for a fully phased system is probably a long shot, our best chance might be to just hope somehow the models are way too far south with the h5 features (not uncommon) and this just ends up well north of where they have it now. Of course without the phase we run the risk of boundary layer temp problems with that solution so the better option would be a phase but that seems like a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 OMG...I thought you were parodying him - lol. And then I went to his FB page... yeah i thought it was a joke too. oh dt. i mean it still doesnt look awful but probably not the move we wanted around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 OMG...I thought you were parodying him - lol. And then I went to his FB page... lol....talk about spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GEFS is north of the Op and all but 1 members wrap the storm up to a respectable degree. Bad news is only 2 get snow precip into our area appreciably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 we want a phase I agree 100% but I am not sure how likely that is now. A phased solution gives us a much better show, but at this point maybe we just have to hope we thread the needle without it. Its about all we have left. Either way we are close to shutting the door on this disaster of a Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I agree 100% but I am not sure how likely that is now. A phased solution gives us a much better show, but at this point maybe we just have to hope we thread the needle without it. Its about all we have left. Either way we are close to shutting the door on this disaster of a Winter. it isnt likely probably which will mean RDU will be getting +SN and 33 and we will be getting -RA and 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 it isnt likely probably which will mean RDU will be getting +SN and 33 and we will be getting -RA and 39 yea problem without a phase is remember the unphased solutions when the gfs had a good track were weak and pathetic, thats because without a phase a further north solution is also not digging as much, thus less amplification, less gulf moisture, and running into more interference with the suppressive flow to the north. I am not really sure an unphased solution, even with a further north track, can really work for us. I guess the more I think about it...the more I am changing my mind, we have to hope this phases like earlier runs of the euro, or we are probably screwed one last final time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well, I saw the 500 and vort panels... Phase or more luck than we've had in 2 years is required... Not apples to apples but the ull that was poised to rake nc last month ended up further north and those changes came just a couple days before the event. I know it's not a great comparison but relatively vigorous ulls end up with a further north track more often than not. IIRC- we had hard core confluence to our n with that system. Brick wall style. And even then it just scraped our southern zone when nothing was expected just 2 days before the event. I'm pretty much expecting future runs to back off on the surpressive solutions but idk if we can get this to phase in time or at all. Luckily, there's plenty of time and nothing is set in stone. Let's hope the dream run holds off till monday though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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