Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I dont have the KU book handy, but I can't think of a storm with an ULL low that takes the GFS track and gives us a snowstorm...every time we got a snowstorm with that track, the northern stream dove in and pulled the ULL somewhere into eastern TN/SW Va before it could progress any further southeast GFS was kinda wrapped up this time with the ull even without a phase. We have such a long ways to go here. The closed ull to our ne will not be in the same spot or even close to the same spot as shown. Sure it's possible it could be a perfect modeled location but it would be be accident. I'm sure we'll be getting sucked in and gut punched a half dozen times but it's just another solution at a long lead that won't happen as shown. I would hedge on a further nw solution but still plenty of opportunity for a big whiff even with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 mountain highs and valley lows. But i think we are in death valley. I havent had a mountain high since 2011 We're never climbing out of this valley for the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy He has been very good for NC storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Social Media Feedback Loop: 1) Find 8-day forecast of east coast storm 2) Post snowfall map 3) 8 days later (verification time) if snowstorm verifies then "Post on facebook noting your heroic forecast with an 8-day lead time" ....collect more followers endif if snowstorm doesn't verify then "Post on facebook that is was just one model solution---tell followers it was never your actual forecast" endif 4) Rinse and repeat Exact formaula. I am patenting it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 FWIW. I am not going with either model. Because you can just about guarantee that neither one of them is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Of course he's saying that. He's wedded to the euro solution. But remember...it's not a forecast. If it doesn't happen as he describes it's because he was only showing how that one model solution would shake out. Say out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 euro is bouncing around it seems mainly. not sure there are any trends there. 0z night before last was a NW of 95 event into WV, 12z yday was a Cape May paster, 0z last night crushed ROA. I agree, I think the euro is definitely hitting the more phased solution between the lakes h5 low and the manitoba low, but other then that its bouncing around with the exact track and amplification of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 For what it's worth, the Euro did show the New England blizzard this year well before the GFS. I definitely don't think it should be discounted, but let's see if we can have 2 runs in a row with a similiar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the GFS runs are getting worse and worse GFS is not budging with its solution of not phasing, for that matter it has the UKMET in its camp also. If the h5 low diving into the trough does not phase, there is no way its going to get the job done because the flow will remain suppressive with where the block is and the old dying new england low not getting out of the way in time. GGEM is off on is own planet right now with its solution, and the euro seems like its locked into a totally different evolution at H5 phasing the two streams very early on thus allowing a more amplified system. Usually I would feel better with the euro having 3 runs in a row with the phase, but this year the GFS has been schooling the Euro in the 5-10 day range with the one exception of the CT snowbomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I agree, I think the euro is definitely hitting the more phased solution between the lakes h5 low and the manitoba low, but other then that its bouncing around with the exact track and amplification of the surface low. yeah, i think the last three runs are more or less in the same type of camp.. specifics are tricky. tho it is still a week out so they should be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 We're never climbing out of this valley for the rest of winter. Good thing winter ends tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Maybe the GFS solution isnt bad since it will probably trend north...The last thing we need is something that flushes us and the ULL ends up north of its modeled solution..1/22/05, 12/30/00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It really is all for the best that wunderground's euro maps only go out to 144 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 yeah, i think the last three runs are more or less in the same type of camp.. specifics are tricky. tho it is still a week out so they should be... agreed, we need the h5 phased solution of the euro to be right, then hope for luck with the track. THe GFS evolution, we would need to get really lucky to have that work out. I know it seems close, but looking at the h5 I just dont see how that is going to overcome the suppressive flow without a more phased solution between the two h5 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It really is all for the best that wunderground's euro maps only go out to 144 now. did it finally give up on its phased solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Maybe the GFS solution isnt bad since it will probably trend north...The last thing we need is something that flushes us and the ULL ends up north of its modeled solution..1/22/05, 12/30/00 I think a lot is likely to change in how this sytem evolves, but given the h5 setup on the GFS I just dont see how that could end up a snowstorm for our area. The flow is downright hostile without the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 did it finally give up on its phased solution? we arent there yet...126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 we arent there yet...126 it isnt phasing...not quite there yet to see the result...138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 did it finally give up on its phased solution? Still coming - I just meant that it allows for less obsession over the 6+ day timeframe where specifics don't matter. Not that it wasn't fun to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT gonna have trouble explaining how his dear EURO looks worse than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I am taking the NAVGEM as my model of choice -- https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022812∏=prpτ=168&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Do I feel the wind in our sails dying? What says the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT gonna have trouble explaining how his dear EURO looks worse than the GFS. Haha - he's spent all morning giving examples on his FB page of how and why the GFS is out to lunch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Do I feel the wind in our sails dying? What says the EURO? At 156 currently.....still south of us but the threat is def still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Weenie post: If the GFS ends up being right for really the first time over the EURO, thats just the last stab in our backs, final middle finger to us by this crappy winter. Wow! Still 5 days out though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 so close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 At 156 currently.....still south of us but the threat is def still there I'd rather it south with a chance for north. No bullseye necessary now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 so close... very close. Phase is a minute late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 so close... too close to give up on...and with it being 5-6 days out...still many things can and will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 156 its off the NC coast... very close but no cigar, right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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