packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy He is "FoothillsNC" in the SE forum, not a hype guy, he said there is potential for a winter storm, he hasn't called it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 He is "FoothillsNC" in the SE forum, not a hype guy, he said there is potential for a winter storm, he hasn't called it yet. he drew a map and put us in the big Fat Heavy snow color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 After second look I do think the 0z euro is very close... and a better run for us then the 12z. If it was just say 50 miles north and 4 mb deeper it would be the perfect solution for us. That is a minor adjustment for 6-7 days away. Maybe this is just my perception, but I would much rather need a "north" trend then a "west" trend leading up to a storm. Models are rarely correct with exact track this far out, so needing a north trend is no big deal IMHO, but a west trend means we need a faster amplification solution and that rarely works out. euro is bouncing around it seems mainly. not sure there are any trends there. 0z night before last was a NW of 95 event into WV, 12z yday was a Cape May paster, 0z last night crushed ROA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy Ji, he's not "calling" for it. He said it was possible and "if the models are right". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 that wxsouth map is total lol social media is making forecasting a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 500 low south of Atlanta isn't going to help us out (12z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the GFS runs are getting worse and worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Georgia and SC do good this run.. I'm staying up for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 On the GFS, if that ne upper low is a little further east/north, I'd say we'd be in business for the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 that wxsouth map is total lol social media is making forecasting a joke Social Media Feedback Loop: 1) Find 8-day forecast of east coast storm 2) Post snowfall map 3) 8 days later (verification time) if snowstorm verifies then "Post on facebook noting your heroic forecast with an 8-day lead time" ....collect more followers endif if snowstorm doesn't verify then "Post on facebook that is was just one model solution---tell followers it was never your actual forecast" endif 4) Rinse and repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 if this storm ended up north..it could be historic. Look at all the moisture being dumped in South Carolina from what the GFS has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It is close to rounding the corner...There are some adverse factors, not the least of which is the weak trough in western canada which isnt allowing to the PNA ridge to amplify enough and is pushing the ridge trough axis too far east....we really need more northern stream energy to dive in and phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 On the GFS, if that ne upper low is a little further east/north, I'd say we'd be in business for the real deal. The whole setup through the weekend has been wreaking havoc on the evolution of the ull diving down. The real freakout comes when when a model shows the closed low to the ne becoming a block and pushes the se cutoff low into stall mode off of OC or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy Not a single person on earth is skilled enough to know the minutia of how this storm will evolve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The whole setup through the weekend has been wreaking havoc on the evolution of the ull diving down. The real freakout comes when when a model shows the closed low to the ne becoming a block and pushes the se cutoff low into stall mode off of OC or thereabouts. yes I am going with the GFS on this one...the euro bias is showing here in overamplifying...it makes perfect sense that the ULL will get out ahead....we can just hope that it trends north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Not a single person on earth is skilled enough to know the minutia of how this storm will evolve... Absolutely. The ul setup this weekend over the east has been moving all over the place on the models. Zero chance the sw can be properly resolved until we get through saturday if not sunday and even then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Social Media Feedback Loop: 1) Find 8-day forecast of east coast storm 2) Post snowfall map 3) 8 days later (verification time) if snowstorm verifies then "Post on facebook noting your heroic forecast with an 8-day lead time" ....collect more followers endif if snowstorm doesn't verify then "Post on facebook that is was just one model solution---tell followers it was never your actual forecast" endif 4) Rinse and repeat hah, pretty much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 yes I am going with the GFS on this one...the euro bias is showing here in overamplifying...it makes perfect sense that the ULL will get out ahead....we can just hope that it trends north Because it's in the realm of possibility....getting a closed ull to crawl the coast can happen here. This is exactly the type of setup that can make it happen. hl blocking stopping a 50/50ish in its tracks with a cutoff over the se. I know it's a reach and a prayer but if we are going to get a coastal crawler/staller....there are some necessary pieces already on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Absolutely. The ul setup this weekend over the east has been moving all over the place on the models. Zero chance the sw can be properly resolved until we get through saturday if not sunday and even then.. interestingly enough the 1st ULL on March 4th takes a perfect track through IL, IN, KY, TN......but there is no surface reflection or moisture associated with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT says to ignore the GFS. So in my mind..the run never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I was thinking how ironic it was in the last two plains blizzards that we needed the 500 lows to come further east, but they ran to about Missouri and hit a brick wall. When we need one to slow a bit, it's a steam roller. I've come to agree with you about north vs west trends. yea, there are two different issues with this, the h5 track, and how quickly the surface low amplifies. The two are not completely independent, as we need the more phased solution to get the better surface low solution. Even if the h5 takes a perfect track if the surface low develops late we are screwed. I guess from my experience, getting the storm to amplify in time in these types of situations is the bigger problem versus getting it to track over us. I am not saying I have confidence this won't miss us to the north or south, just that I would rather see it nice and amped up and then take our chances on the track, then be needing the right track and worrying about if the storm will even develop in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT says to ignore the GFS. So in my mind..the run never happened No snow for RIC = GOOFUS acting sily and terible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 yea, there are two different issues with this, the h5 track, and how quickly the surface low amplifies. The two are not completely independent, as we need the more phased solution to get the better surface low solution. Even if the h5 takes a perfect track if the surface low develops late we are screwed. I guess from my experience, getting the storm to amplify in time in these types of situations is the bigger problem versus getting it to track over us. I am not saying I have confidence this won't miss us to the north or south, just that I would rather see it nice and amped up and then take our chances on the track, then be needing the right track and worrying about if the storm will even develop in time. The ULL on the GFS takes a hideous track for us considering the progressiveness of the trough and yet it is still just a near miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT says to ignore the GFS. So in my mind..the run never happened Of course he's saying that. He's wedded to the euro solution. I'd go with the gfs here. I'm always weary of a+b+c needs to happen events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I dont have the KU book handy, but I can't think of a storm with an ULL low that takes the GFS track and gives us a snowstorm...every time we got a snowstorm with that track, the northern stream dove in and pulled the ULL somewhere into eastern TN/SW Va before it could progress any further southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 ....Has anyone learned about disregarding the Euro this winter? It has been far better than the GFS for most events this year. Every time the GFS shows snow, it's hugged, and it turns out to be wrong. And now it doesn't show snow, and it's still hugged? I'm leaning Euro on this one, just due to it's track record this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Surprised relatively speaking how close the GFS was with the ULL that far south. I agree matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 ....Has anyone learned about disregarding the Euro this winter? It has been far better than the GFS for most events this year. Every time the GFS shows snow, it's hugged, and it turns out to be wrong. And now it doesn't show snow, and it's still hugged? I'm leaning Euro on this one, just due to it's track record this year. Good primer since no one here has followed the models this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Of course he's saying that. He's wedded to the euro solution. I'd go with the gfs here. I'm always weary of a+b+c needs to happen events mountain highs and valley lows. But i think we are in death valley. I havent had a mountain high since 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 ....Has anyone learned about disregarding the Euro this winter? It has been far better than the GFS for most events this year. Every time the GFS shows snow, it's hugged, and it turns out to be wrong. And now it doesn't show snow, and it's still hugged? I'm leaning Euro on this one, just due to it's track record this year. I don't know that I necessarily believe the Euro, but I do agree with your statement. Everyone says, "What does the Euro say" when the GFS and NAM give us snow. When it's the other way around, the Euro isn't trusted. Weird crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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