North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I checked the DGEX and NOGAPS and they miss us too I didn't look at that model for a hit, I looked to see if it even had a storm. But, your sarcasm at my even doing that is noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If there is a way for this to be suppressed or OTS, anyway to miss us or producevrain, the atmosphere will find it. Nothing has gone in our direction this year. The snow gods are not with us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'd accept a foot of snow right now if it meant we got warm afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'd accept a foot of snow right now if it meant we got warm afterwards. Lol. Thanks for stating the obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 looks like this is a do or die storm. Both models end winter after the storm The pattern might reload. I think march 20th through April 10th will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 The pattern might reload. I think march 20th through April 10th will be good. How about April 20-May 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 How about April 20-May 5 That's late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 That's late for us. Pretty muct too late. Last measurable snow at DCA is April 28th I believe of .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Pretty muct too late. Last measurable snow at DCA is April 28th I believe of .5" That sounds right. So we have about 2 months to get a good storm. The JYO/MRB crew is good until around May 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 how many inches could this be? sorry to ask, ,pastor wants to know ballpark figure. thanks. Big meeting at church, been canceled once for sandy..live in columbia area, church southwest of baltimore betwn halto and columbia md. The event is being done by our kitchen help. a lot of prep has to be done. Appreciate any advise you an give.Much obliged. Relax. It is a dumb post. Anyway. Hope your event is canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 That sounds right. So we have about 2 months to get a good storm. The JYO/MRB crew is good until around May 15th. Matt, sometimes I can't tell when you are serious. Are you serious with that? Has there ever been snow back here that late? I was living in swva in 1989, and we had an inch of snow on May 7. It was the first measurable snow at TriCities Airport (ne Tenn) since 1937. I wouldn't have thought snow that late would be possible at this latitude outside of the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The pattern might reload. I think march 20th through April 10th will be good. Let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Matt, sometimes I can't tell when you are serious. Are you serious with that? Has there ever been snow back here that late? I was living in swva in 1989, and we had an inch of snow on May 7. It was the first measurable snow at TriCities Airport (ne Tenn) since 1937. I wouldn't have thought snow that late would be possible at this latitude outside of the highest elevations. In joking. But 2nd half of March isn't too late for you. I chased snow last April 22nd. It accumulated above 1500' north of Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 In joking. But 2nd half of March isn't too late for you. I chased snow last April 22nd. It accumulated above 1500' north of Frederick. I can't remember that event at all. Think I'm getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 How about April 20-May 5 Sun Angle concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I was living in western PA, where we ended up with 2 feet. I don't think I would consider it a number 1 or even 2 storm for me. The main reasion is it seemed to go by very fast. It literally started snowing (lightly) around dawn on a Saturday, and was pretty much over by 8 p.m. that night. It ripped snow, 2-3 inches an hour, from about noon to 8 p.m., but then shut off pretty abruptly, at least back that way. I much prefer PII in 03, Dec. 09, or Feb 5/6 2010 where it snowed more than 24 hours. I am the opposite, I would much rather get 24 inches in 12 hours then 24 inches in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Sun Angle concerns Boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 In joking. But 2nd half of March isn't too late for you. I chased snow last April 22nd. It accumulated above 1500' north of Frederick. I can remember snow accumulating around the 22nd/23rd of April in 1993. At least I think it was 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 looks like this is a do or die storm. Both models end winter after the storm I think things moderate for a time following this storm, but I do think there is one more major amplification of the trough into the east towards March 15-20th or so. Of course we would need something really perfect at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The difference in track between the GFS and Euro is a function of how they are handling the h5 setup. Looking for a trend north on the GFS is not the idea, its all about how it handles the interaction between the h5 low diving out of Manitoba and the old H5 low over the northern Lakes. The op euro has for 3 runs now been phasing them, pinwheeling the low to our north west then phasing it into the system, thus allowing the flow to back along the coast and get the ridging needed for this to develop further. The GFS is keeping those systems seperate. If they do not phase, the GFS track, or at least the idea that this wont develop in time for us, is probably right because with that low right there to our north the flow is suppressive. I have no idea which idea is correct, but our odds for a big snow are small because even the last 3 op euro runs that did phase, only one of them did so in a way to bomb the low out in time for us. LIke mitch pointed out, a moderate storm will not work. The trough is great but all the cold is on the other side of the globe. We have no arctic air to work with. Boundary layer temps will suck. From here on out its go big or go home, we are not likely to get a 1-3" or marginal event, we need something to bomb and give us hours of heavy precip to convectively cool the boundary layer. The last run of the euro is pretty to look at but would be 38 and moderate rain for most of the event. We need a solution like the euro from 2 nights ago, or yesterdays euro but shifted 200 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If this one doesn't work out, in 10 days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If this one doesn't work out, in 10 days..... You will hopefully be in your speedo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 In joking. But 2nd half of March isn't too late for you. I chased snow last April 22nd. It accumulated above 1500' north of Frederick. Yeah, I went back and looked, I recorded a T for 4/23/2012 and 4/24/2012, which covers previous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 After second look I do think the 0z euro is very close... and a better run for us then the 12z. If it was just say 50 miles north and 4 mb deeper it would be the perfect solution for us. That is a minor adjustment for 6-7 days away. Maybe this is just my perception, but I would much rather need a "north" trend then a "west" trend leading up to a storm. Models are rarely correct with exact track this far out, so needing a north trend is no big deal IMHO, but a west trend means we need a faster amplification solution and that rarely works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Pretty muct too late. Last measurable snow at DCA is April 28th I believe of .5" Obviously I was kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 After second look I do think the 0z euro is very close... and a better run for us then the 12z. If it was just say 50 miles north and 4 mb deeper it would be the perfect solution for us. That is a minor adjustment for 6-7 days away. Maybe this is just my perception, but I would much rather need a "north" trend then a "west" trend leading up to a storm. Models are rarely correct with exact track this far out, so needing a north trend is no big deal IMHO, but a west trend means we need a faster amplification solution and that rarely works out. I was thinking how ironic it was in the last two plains blizzards that we needed the 500 lows to come further east, but they ran to about Missouri and hit a brick wall. When we need one to slow a bit, it's a steam roller. I've come to agree with you about north vs west trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 too many moving pieces with this one. Hopefully we get lucky,...we probably wont know until it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy From what I have seen, he is pretty good. Doesn't seem to hype too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy He's a meteorologist and posts on AMWX in the SE forums occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.